The FOMC minutes are being released as I write this, but weak inflation seems to one of their key concerns. Expect the yield curve to continue to flatten as this gets priced into the long end. The spread between the US 30 year and Us 2 year has been careening off a cliff lately and given this news, it is safe to expect this trend to continue. The Kovach Chande...
The yield curve (spread between the 30 year and 2 year spread) just broke below 1%. All indicators suggest this trend to continue. It has been encroaching the lower Bollinger Band of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, with no retracement in sight. A retracement will be confirmed by a green triangle, if an when it happens. The Federal reserve should be very ...
The yield curve struggles to come up for air as it hurdles toward zero. The slope of the trend is clearly decreasing, indicating that the flattening is accelerating. We've tested the lower bound of the Bollinger Band without a relief rally which is a very bearish sign. Also the Kovach Chande indicator is bearish and appears to be increasingly more so. If you...
As investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as...
The spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed. This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the...
As the markets price in the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, we see the spread between the 30 year and 2 year US treasuries continue to flatten. It is probably not coincidence that peaks in the Altcoin Index match up with with relative bottoms (especially recently) in the treasury spread. Also, although this is somewhat due to the Segwit2x drama...
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
Entering into long position with Reward to Risk of 1.8 in US 30 years Treasury Bonds, fantastic high quality opportunity. I hope it will work out as expected!
I am entering a long position into long term US treasuries from a support line clearly visible on H4 and daily charts. Although the long term perspective for the price of bonds is negative due to expected rate hikes later this year and next year, on the shorter time scale (few weeks) the Treasuries seems under-priced after the strong decline last few weeks and...
The support zone at 152.05 is confirmed and well backed with strong buying activity. I am entering more aggressively at market with 1.40 Reward to Risk Ratio. If tomorrow US NFP data is negative it will additionally benefit this trade.
Look forward on CBOT:ZN1! and TNX index retrace in a short time.
U.S. treasury bond yields are signalling deflation, whilst stock melt up indicating an inflationary economy. Does the bond market know something that stocks don't?
Gold Chart I see a Potential Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern forming "waiting 4 right shoulder". At moment long call option is active. But this is what i'll be tracking as the week goes on. So, let's see how geopolitics will react. #Gold and Treasuries Rallied on Geopolitical tension #Trump Tax #North Korean Problem and French election this is a general...
As you can see, yields are poised to break above the bull flag; a convincing break would target 3% as a minimum. Time to buy some moon boots guys and ditch any $JNUG dreams.
Promising setup developing at TLT (treasury bond ETF) at the daily timeframe. Looking to go long with momentum or at pullback to the trendline. First tactical target 200SMA, main target 129-130 area (measured move + 50% level of Jul-Dec 2016 move). Setup invalidated with daily close below 120.
A weekly close below 2.3% would open up downside towards 2.0% (target as per measured height method)
As real rates rise, the probability of gold having topped increases significantly
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEAR TREASURY - look for short at 40.60 levels