Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart: 1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing ....
As global financial markets continue to grind higher and reach new highs, it appears that yields on the US 10-Year Treasury are doing the same. Yields broke through their previous yearly high of 1.899% (Green Resistance Line), settling at 1.943% (as of Nov 10th), and are trying to make a move higher. On a technical basis, yields seem to be forming an "Ascending...
updating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.
TLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall. For this trade,...
I expect us to revisit support at the green line or at least 1.5 soon, perhaps this week or within the next two weeks. Gaps always get filled!
Here is my thought process behind why I have a bearish outlook heading into 2020 - please note that this is the second time that I have ever published analysis and this is just me synthesizing a bunch of ideas. I'm going to start off with the lighter ideas before moving on to the heavier ideas... 1) We are in the late stage of the economic cycle... this is the...
Contrary to what most people believe, 10 year yields have very little to do with the DXY, but rather acts as an outlook/sentiment with respect to the global economy. Of course there are many other things in play, however, in this impending recession that will be the major driving force for the 10 year. Moreover, plummeting yields from most other nations will...
The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000),...
With TLT at nosebleed heights the question obviously becomes, is it time to switch into equities yet? As you can see TLT (red line) reaches fever pitch levels almost always at excellent entry points into equities, going back all the way to the GFC this has held true. TLT for what it's worth is also extremely extended, driven to these heights on trade fears,...
If negative rates are set to accelerate, it's important to look at the corresponding treas. performance over the past year.
Yields on the US-10 Year Treasury continue to head lower, as they approach a multi-year support of 1.426% (blue), a level not seen since July 2016. "Risk Off" continues to be in play.
We are currently witnessing levels is the Bond Market that have never been seen before. Again today, the US02Y-US10Y have inverted multiple times. The US01M-US03Y have now also inverted. We currently live in a time where debt is out of control and unfortunately there is no end in sight. History shows, within 6-18 months after a US02Y-US10Y inversion, the...
Powell rocked the markets yesterday: “Let me be clear: What I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that. When you think about rate-cutting cycles, they go on for a long time and the committee’s not seeing that. Not seeing us in that place. You would do that if you saw real economic weakness and...
Despite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy). After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence...
CURRENT LEG SUPPORT A STRONG MOVE DOWN 2700-2500 RANGE CURRENT DOUBLE TOP CURRENT OSCILLATION TURNING POINT WITH A LOT OF HANDS HEAVY LONG SUPPORTED BY CHINA TRADE MEDIA PUMP ES COULD VERY WELL SMACK DOWN INVESTORS 3RD QTR 3000 IS STILL A C>D TARGET CURRENT MOVEMENT IS B>C A>B HAS BEEN SATISFIED TWICE WHICH MEANS A DOUBLE TOP
Buy line and sell line. Play this until a week before next fed meet up. Rates will be cut. If first cut is big I dump if not I hold and sell just before next cut.