As anticipated, bonds faced steep resitance from 121'00 and sharply retraced. We have fallen back to 119'23, one level above lows at 119'01. The Kovach OBV ticked up slightly with the rally, but has fallen sharply at the moment. At this point it is clear that any rally is purely technical and the bear rout is still at play.
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions...
After taking just 1 day off the US Dollar and 10-YR Treasury Yields are back to pushing 52W highs. Need to see these two back off for any type of convincing equity market rally to take place.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...
Bonds are back to hugging lows, after a brief attempt at higher levels. We found immediate resistance one level above at 121'00. Even the rally to that level encountered serious resistance at every step, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are back to lows again at 120'14. The Kovach OBV is very bearish so we can expect an imminent breakdown to lower...
Bonds have reached a relative high at 123'01 to the tick then promptly rejected this level. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance and we headed straight back down to through the 122 handle to finally find support at 121'28. We are currently seeing some support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV has taken a steep dive...
IEF (7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ) is hitting a monthly uptrend line which is very likely to cause a short term bounce. On almost all time frames, IEF looks oversold. We are long EIF. - HH
Long-term regression trend on 10yr treasuries just broke above +2 StDev at 2.2%. Assumption: Fed raises rates to eventually bring them back down in a year or two.
Long term US10Y Monthly Fib Channels. Much lines. Extra words...
Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed...
Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to...
The 10-year Treasury yield soared to a new high over the past 24 hours, confirming the breakout above peaks from June - July 2019. Yields are now testing the former 2.34 - 2.43 support zone. Extending gains above the former exposes 2.61 before the 2019 high at 2.79 comes into play. These may offer the next critical levels of resistance as hawkish US monetary...
Bonds continue their selloff ahead of the FOMC meeting today . The Fed is expected to raise rates, and we could be in for as many as 6 rate hikes total this year. This is impacting yields sending bond prices tumbling. ZN has made a brief attempt at higher levels but got batted down around 125'07, a level we identified yesterday. It is likely to continue the...
Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot...
Bonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off...
When investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes...
The British pound is in positive territory, as the US dollar has retreated against the major currencies for the first time in five days. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3169 in the North American session, up 0.52% on the day. The US dollar has had its way with the pound in recent sessions, but GBP/USD has reversed directions today. We are seeing a buy-the-dip move,...
Bonds have demonstrated some great volatility in the past 24 hours. We tested 127'08, and formed a rounding bottom before blasting off again to the 128 handle. A wick hit 128'24, another one of our levels before retreating to level off in the mid 128's around 128'11. We are right in the middle of the previous range between 127'08 and 128'24. The Kovach OBV is...