The New Zealand dollar has posted small gains on Thursday, as NZD/USD has pushed above the 0.68 line in the North American session. New Zealand is hugely dependent on its export industry, and the Covid pandemic has taken its toll on exports, as global demand has fallen. However, with the worst of Covid hopefully behind us, global demand has picked up, which bodes...
US 10-year yields are slamming back down into the 1.72 breakout zone going back to March of 2021. We're at a logical spot to bounce, but beware of a continued move lower just as the prevailing opinion is that interest rates must rise. Losing 1.70 and holding below on a closing basis would be an important change of character.
Bonds tested relative highs with increased risk off sentiment due to Russia's attack on the Ukraine. However, after a day of stock selloff and safehaven inflows, we quickly retraced back to support at 126'11. The Kovach OBV barely budged off the rally to 127'08, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. It has since bottomed out, confirming support...
Bonds have picked up from lows, retracing the vacuum zone back to resistance at 126'19, exactly as we had predicted yesterday. The Kovach OBV picked up very slightly, but nowhere near enough to suggest any serious buying momentum. We are seeing resistance from these levels, as anticipated, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. It seems likely that ZN may...
The light blue line is the price of gold against M2 money supply in order to show it on the chart more easily. Mainly, take note of the highs on this line. The purple line represents returns on the 30 year treasury after removing loses from inflation. Inflation normalized returns. The blue line represents the return on GOLD. Namely, it maintains it's value...
Part 1 Hello everyone! It's been a few weeks since my last update on the markets, and this one is going to be a very special one. Will go through many different aspects of most major markets, by using both technical and fundamental analysis. It will be an in-depth analysis with lots of charts of several instruments, that have the potential to give us a clear...
A brief explanation on why everybody is and always has been so wrong about the deficit, printing and much more...
Bonds appeared to be making an effort to attempt higher levels, with a bull wedge pattern forming with an upper bound at 128'10. However, we broke down from this pattern, smashing through the 128 handle into the 127's and then some. The next level of support at 127'22 did little to provide support, though we finally bottomed out for now just above 127'08. ...
After breaking down from our head and shoulders pattern, bonds have found support at lower levels and have attempted a rebound. The level 127'08 provided good support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, and we saw a nice pivot there. We were able to break above 127'22, the next level above before retracing and stabilizing above 127'08 again. It appears...
Bonds have gotten a lift off the selloff in stocks. An influx of risk off sentiment gave ZN a much needed lift back to the 128 handle. We had dipped in the very lows of the 127 handle, and were appearing to get ready to break into the 126's, when the fallout from stocks caused a notable risk off shift. We have broken through our level at 127'22. As predicted...
The US dollar has edged higher at the start of the week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 114.56, up 0.36% on the day. The yen is coming off its best week since November 2020, with USD/JPY falling by 1.15% last week. US Treasury yields have taken the yen on a roller-coaster ride. Earlier this month, USD/JPY punched above the 1.16 line, as 10-year US...
Strong sell-off of US Treasuries zn Target level 126.250 ------------------------------- -------------------------------
Bonds have edged up, but as predicted, are facing resistance at 128'24. We saw a red triangle on the KRI at this level to confirm resistance. Currently, we are seeking support at 128'10, which we also anticipated. Two green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. As discussed yesterday, bonds are establishing value between 128'10 and 128'24. The...
The Japanese yen has extended its gains as USD/JPY trades at a 3-week low. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 114.25, down 0.35% on the day. Will the yen break into 113-territory before the end of the week? The Japanese yen has jumped onto the currency bandwagon this week, taking advantage of a US dollar in retreat. USD/JPY has dropped 1.11%...
The selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point....
The crypto & stonk killer. Rates have been exceptionally low because of crisis. Look back to 2009. They went up in 2016 for a little bit while donnie complained. (he wanted that easy money because he tweeted about stonks his entire time in office). They drifted lower thereafter and then BAM! Another crisis the government had to print through. Where did all...
Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we...
The Japanese yen has edged higher and is back below the 116 level. Still, the yen remains vulnerable, especially with US treasury yields moving higher. Earlier in the week, USD/JPY broke above116 line for the first time since January 2017. The dollar has managed to push the yen to 5-year lows on the back of rising US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield, which...