Observation : Market has three decision zones with little resistance in between IF Potential for market to rise sharply higher for trend breakout day ELSE Revise opportunity if 9/16 day trend does not continue upward
God luck with this potential bull flag trade i will be here in the premarket tomorrow morning to buy.
Using the same fractal analysis method I used to forecast the BTC dump & dead-cat bounce, I began watching US Treasuries as TLT was set to break out of a descending wedge. Now that it is has, I'm publishing the idea for others to weigh in on. If the pattern plays out we could see new all time highs; which suggests we could be entering another period of recession...
Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in 5-Year T-Note Futures (ZF1!) . ...
If the 10 Year doesn't hold this technical support then expect it to go a lot lower.
After this sideways dredge in the bond market, the upside vulnerability is mounting. Appetite for bonds reflected in prices rising could lead stocks to underperform or lag for a short period of time. This scenario would be seen as a correction in a prolonged decline. The below video explains what levels to watch for.
Good day guys! This is just an update in regards to the position that my team and I are currently holding. In my previous chart, I highlighted how the technicals would be looking to create a rising wedge before continuing to the downside. As of today, the markets are revealing just that. With over 1200 pips and counting, we are still looking for the markets to...
10-year treasury yields technically look set for a move higher after completing an ABC corrective pattern last week. The overbought status of the stochastic and the RSI indicators also point to a move higher. The dollar and treasuries will however be at the mercy of the Fed this week. Weekly candle:
The bond market is the primary capital-raising marketplace. Market participants issue new debt or buy and sell debt securities in the secondary market. Bonds, notes, and bills are tools for public and private expenditures. Since the US is the world’s leading economy, the market for US government bonds is massive. The long-bond or 30-Year Treasury is a barometer...
The 10-year UST (nominal) yields seems to have broken on the downside, despite slightly. If this movement were to continue, then the main winners would be : - US government bonds: over the short term only. - Precious metals and stocks in this same sector, which react positively to real yield drops. Indeed, like nominal yields, real 10-year yields dropped from...
Hello traders! Today we will talk about treasuries (10Y US Notes) and its negative correlation with USDJPY. As you can see, 10Y US Notes turned sharply down after a corrective movement in wave 4), which means that it can be now on the way back to lows for wave 5), especially if breaks below channel support line. At the same time USDJPY may continue higher as we...
Treasury Yields in the Crosshairs Ahead of High-Impact Inflation Data Due Ten-year US Treasury yields have rallied 14-basis points since Friday's swing low Bonds are selling off again as investors grow weary of mounting price pressures US10Y could snap higher if monthly inflation data due for release tops estimates Taking a quick look at a daily chart...
The recent sell off in the bonds has been sharp and is having reverberations throughout the broader markets. This is a monthly chart looking at bond prices going back twenty years. I was surprised to find that although the current price action has felt extreme, the bonds are still well within a 2 standard deviation regression channel. I've drawn in some...
This chart breaks the DXY down to it's individual components and examines each currency pair individually. In addition, the DXY itself is depicted as an area line at the bottom of the chart to give a more comprehensive feel for its movement. There has been a confluence of the US treasuries selling off (pushing rates higher) while the opposite is occurring in...
We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a...
In short, we don't think so. In the chart above, you're seeing the 10y30y spread and the 10y yield. The 10s30s is a barometer of the inflation risk premium. And quite frankly, the market isn't buying that inflation will be sustained. Yes, the 10y yield is indicating perhaps to many that there is some kind of inflation risk, but from the Macrodesiac view, all...