Currently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib...
USDX Daily cautiously bullish. *Equities are down, cryptos are down, commodities are down (yes Gold included), real estate/housing market down, inflation up and the US dollar (as well as Russian ruble)... up. The Fed is expected to announce anywhere from a 50bp-100bp rate hike this Wednesday if they want to be in line with their promise to go "beyond neutral" to...
Bonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08...
Bonds have sold off into the mid 118's after smashing through 119'01. We have gradually drifted up from there, but are meeting resistance at 119'01. It will take some momentum to break through this level and right now it does not seem that ZN can muster the strength. The Kovach OBV has edged upward, but appears quite weak. If ZN is able to somehow break out,...
Bonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able...
Hello,Traders! US10Y has retested a strong horizontal resistance And we are already seeing a bearish reaction So I think that the move down will continue With the target being the broken falling resistance That has turned into a support level Sell! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
Bonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are...
There is RSI Bullish Divergence at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that's Visible on the Weekly Timeframe. This may also signal the beginning of a moderate pullback within the DXY as initially, I expect the DXY to show a Negative Correlation with Rising US BOND prices.
Bonds have picked up, breaking through several of our upside levels. We set a target of 119'23, and that is exactly the level we've reached. We are seeing signs of resistance here from several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up however, but it is doubtful momentum will take us much further, given the market conditions. If we are able to...
The Japanese yen is slightly lower at the start of the week. In the Asian session, the yen fell as low as 131.35, which marked a 20-year low. The speed of the Japanese yen's depreciation has been remarkable, falling 12% against the US dollar in just three months. The formula for the yen's slide has been relatively simple - US Treasuries have been moving higher,...
As anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at...
The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion. All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing. We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and...
Put together a chart to illustrate what happens when government treasury yields converge at the same amount at a market peak. They consistently roll over and tank. When yields tank, bonds go up in value. Looks like a good spot to pick up some TLT.
Chart to illustrate the inverse relationship between government yields and government treasury/bond funds. Yields go up, treasuries/bonds go down. Yields come down, treasuries and bonds go up. This is going to matter a lot very soon.
Bonds have leveled out after a brief relief rally tested 120'14. We saw prohibitive resistance confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI, then immediately fell back down to 119'01, where we are seeing support. The Kovach OBV picked up slightly with the rally, but fell back down to bearish territory with the rejection. If current levels don't hold, we are sure...
The misery continues for the New Zealand dollar, which is down almost 1% on Thursday. NZD/USD has fallen below the 0.65 level and has plunged 6.54% in the month of April. ANZ Business Confidence was unchanged in April, with a reading of -42.0. That means close to half of New Zealand businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months....
Overview of the yield curve indications on potential liquidity crisis occurring in the near future and leading to downturn in equities.
potential double top around 3.23% on 10 year treasury rate, coincides with resistance of multi decade down trend (yellow). on a logarithmic price chart.. or do we break out of a multi decade trend and see rates go higher? even if we did break out, could the Fed respond with YCC to stop long end rates going up, which could break the financial system..? thoughts and...