In 2001, 2008 and now in 2020, the Unemployment rates started to increase considerably before economical crisis. I've put this quick chart together to keep an eye on this.
This was the day America took the lead in total COVID cases. This is the day that America was the least American considering today's record-breaking unemployment numbers. Yet, on the stock market, the day was overbought. More overbought throughout the beginning of COVID Be well, see you soon!
With this chart I would like to show you, why we potentially haven’t seen the "real" bottom of the market yet. So today is an important day for the markets. After all the new help programs and emergency cuts by several central banks and governments from all country’s in the world, we will see jobless claims numbers released today. And I think this number will...
Now that VIX is in backwardation, it is a good time to bet on it. VIX reached one of its all time peaks a week ago and has been on a cliff dive since. EXIV tracks EURO STOXX 50® Volatility (VSTOXX®) at a -1 multiple. (www.stoxx.com) Although it is not directly the VIX, VSTOXX closely mirrors the VIX. As it is turbulent times, I think EXIV can reach at least the...
Update on $SPY, Good news-New Stimulus package will hopefully be passed this week. Bad News-More cases, Unemployment report coming out. Level 340 was finally broken and the downtrend is very strong. Looks like we'll enter the "Death Zone" at 213 and strong possibility of reaching 185. 43-55% down with recession ahead I think this would be where we consolidate, but...
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
Rising channel is about to retest 0.90 level after a clean break of the trend line. Today CAD unemployment data is expected and non-farm data from USA. Break of the channel to the downside could trigger a good short trade to the low of the channel. For now we have a risk on mood with markets getting higher and war with Iran averted, at least for now... Good Luck!
After breaking out of an ascending channel, a weak test came in
It will happen, the window is getting narrow every single day.
My two most favorite indicators (RSI+MACD; not too crazy) just broke their monthly trends. I think consumption data should be followed more closely in the next quarter to provide us with reassurance that the consumer remains strong. Watch unemployment to remain contained, sentiment remain broadly positive - Umich, NFIB smallbus, OECD CEO - and that Homebuilder...
US unemployment rate and wage growth
Unemployment graph since 1950. Drastic highs and lows from business layoffs spurring economic crashes. Each trough puts in motion an economic recession. A healthy economy has an unemployment rate of 4.5%. Below or above that range is considered unhealthy. We are currently in the longest unemployment decrease in history. I think currently the US economy is...
Reasons for buying USDCAD: - Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday - Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line - Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD...
I didn't notice the purple trend line before, but it started the 2008/9 Financial Crisis. I see this as heavy resistance, if we get rejected at this trend line then for sure we will have a major economic collapse. If we bust through this resistance line then I can see the market going nuts for 5-6 more years. I tend to think we crash within the next year and a...
After the unemployee rate and NFP data, we are waiting for a downtrend.
AUDNZD Analyses based of the data release, and trendline breakout and retest. Kiwi $ has, the 1st quarter data release for Employment and Unemployment rate. As we know these effect the market drastically and the forecast is predicting an increase in Employment rate and a decrease in Unemployment rate which back the technical analyses I have set up.
Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time. Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not...