Gap down is likely a bear trap - SPYSo the gap down looked bearish but the technicals are not confirming it. One more high is likely today or Monday. Gold is at resistance here. OIl found support and looks like a long. BTC rallied and can go higher but it's putting in daily bearish divergences. Natural Gas looks like it will bounce.
X-indicator
PORTALUSDT CHART ANALYSİS ISTRADING CRYPTO PROFITABLE?
Crypto trading is profitable but only if done correctly. Follow the
steps, strategies, and tips shared throughout our guide, and you will be
in a better position to make profitable trades. And a golden rule:
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
Never Forget: 90/90/90 trading rule.
90% of traders will lose 90% of their account value within 90
days.
1. No matter how much profit you make; what matters is how
much you keep.
2. No matter how much you keep, what matters is how much you
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total return on investment (ROI).
Quick take on the S&P500From the very short-term perspective, the SP:SPX is currently stuck in a tight range. Waiting for a little breakout.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
BITCOIN ABOUT TO CRASH HARD!!!!? (Be careful with your longs)I am sharing with you in this video the next CRYPTOCAP:BTC important resistances and support levels.
Together with the confirmations, it is said that if triggered, Bitcoin will start crashing hard, so be careful if you have overleveraged long positions opened right now!
Remember to always trade only with professional trading strategies and tactics, and make sure that your money management is tight!
CADJPY; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaIn this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of CADJPY, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
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Big Deal in RARE EARTHS space with MP! USAR, TMC, CRML next!Big deal with the DOD and MP yesterday. I am looking at some other plays here in sympathy. Neither had much action yesterday USAR, TMC, CRML but if we take out yesterdays intraday highs on these I think we could play some catch up!
Lets dig into the levels im watching and the overall setups on these! Metals stocks are not always the best stocks to trade they can fart around a lot intraday vs tech stocks so be careful with your entries and make sure the volume is there!
Nothing changes while price is below 8.01CYBN continues to reject form 4hr EMA12, bulls need to break above this in the next few trading sessions or it will continue to decline and knock the price below support, which would be a big step backwards and would be a clear signal that CYBN is not enjoying the same series of bullish signals that ATAI and MNMD are giving
CMPS Bulls Keeping Control of 4hr UptrendThe 4hr uptrend is our guide on CMPS as it sets a series of higher lows riding EMAs as support. Eventually we will lose the 4hr uptrend, signalling that daily consolidation is underway. Having bounced 70% from the fear dump low, we are anticipating a daily higher low above 2.25 and the size of that pullback will let us know the likelihood of continuation vs a need to chop around in equilibrium while the market finds a new balance.
4hr RSI just touched 70 today for the first time since the dump.
BITCOIN Bitcoin’s price is rising higher due to several key factors:
Strong Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows:
Large inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by firms like BlackRock, have injected billions of dollars into the market, supporting price gains and driving a breakout above previous highs. ETF inflows have been consistent, with $2.6 billion added over recent weeks, signaling growing institutional adoption.
Corporate Treasury Adoption:
Nearly 260 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, collectively owning over 850,000 BTC worth around $96 billion. This corporate demand adds a structural layer of buying pressure.
Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts:
Market participants are pricing in a high probability of Fed interest rate cuts later in 2025. Lower rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making it more attractive as a store of value and speculative asset.
Technical Bullish Patterns:
Technical analysis shows bullish setups such as a bull flag breakout on daily which historically signals continuation of upward momentum.
Macro and Regulatory Environment:
Growing regulatory clarity, especially in the US, and ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as “digital gold” and a hedge against traditional market risks.
Market Sentiment:
The Fear & Greed Index indicates growing investor confidence (“Greed” zone), and Bitcoin has experieced a majority of green trading days recently, reflecting positive momentum.
Summary
Factor Impact on Bitcoin Price
Institutional ETF inflows Strong buying support
Corporate treasury adoption Structural demand
Fed rate cut expectations Lower opportunity cost for BTC
Technical bullish patterns Momentum for further gains
Regulatory clarity & macro risks Increased trust and safe-haven appeal
#bitcoin #btc
USDJPYUSDJPY ADVANCED OUTLOOK
US10Y=4.348% WEEKLY HIGH 4.436%
DXY=97.664$ weekly low 96.871
FED INTEREST RATE HELD STEADY LAST MEETING BY FOMC VOTE 4.25%-4.5%
Heads of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Federal Reserve (Fed)
Chair: Jerome H. Powell
Term: Powell has served as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since February 5, 2018. He was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, which is set to run until May 2026.
Background: Powell is an American investment banker and lawyer, known for his consensus-building approach and steady leadership during periods of economic uncertainty. He has been a member of the Board of Governors since 2012.
Bank of Japan (BOJ)
Governor: Kazuo Ueda
Term: Kazuo Ueda has served as Governor of the Bank of Japan since April 2023. He is a distinguished academic with a PhD in economics from MIT and has guided the BOJ through its recent policy normalization and interest rate increases.
Key Executive: Koji Nakamura was appointed as the BOJ’s Executive Director overseeing monetary policy and financial markets in April 2025, supporting Governor Ueda in policy implementation.
BOJ ( BANK OF JAPAN) 10 year bond yield
JP10Y=1.491% HIGH FOR THE WEEK 1.515%
BOJ INTEREST RATE =0.5%
Interest Rate Differential:
US Federal Reserve rate: 4.25%–4.50%.- BOJ 0.5%=3.75%-4%
the interest rate differential favor USD LONG
Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate: 0.5% comes in higher giving yen a shot advantage ,on monthly TF USDJPY remains bearish.
10-Year Bond Yield Differential:
Us10y 4.35% -JP10Y 1.515%= 2.835%
The bond yield spread continues to favor the dollar, attracting capital to US assets.
Monetary Policy Outlook:
The BoJ remains cautious, signaling a slow pace of further tightening.
The Fed is expected to maintain higher rates in the near term, though some easing is anticipated later in 2025.
Technical and Fundamental Summary
Trend: USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend, we will have upside potential if US yields stay elevated and BoJ remains dovish.
the monthly TF remains bearish and its something to watch.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain supported above 145 as long as the interest rate and bond yield differentials favor the US.
Upside risks exist if US economic data outperforms or if the BoJ maintains its cautious stance.
Downside risks could emerge if the Fed signals faster rate cuts or if there is a significant shift in risk sentiment favoring the yen.
In summary:
USD/JPY is trading near 146.231, with the US dollar supported by higher interest rates and bond yields relative to Japan. The pair’s direction will remain sensitive to central bank policy signals and global risk sentiment in the coming weeks.
1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) –
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental theory in international finance and foreign exchange markets. It states that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the expected change in their exchange rates over the same period. The concept assumes no arbitrage opportunities and that investors are risk-neutral.
Implication:
If one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate by the same amount as the interest rate differential.
Carry Trade:
If UIP holds, there is no excess return from borrowing in a low-interest currency and investing in a high-interest one, as exchange rate movements offset the interest rate advantage.
Covered vs. Uncovered:
Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): Uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP): No hedging; relies on expected spot rates.
Example:
If US rates are 4.5% and JPY rates are 0.5%, UIP predicts the US dollar will depreciate by 4% against the JAPANESE YEN over the period, making returns equal after accounting for currency changes.
Given the USD interest rate of 4.5% and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate of 0.5%, the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) conditions is as follows:
1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
UIP states that the expected change in the spot exchange rate between two currencies equals the interest rate differential between those countries. In other words, the currency with the higher interest rate is expected to depreciate relative to the currency with the lower interest rate by roughly the interest rate differential.
Interpretation:
Since the USD interest rate (4.5%) is higher than the BOJ rate (0.5%), UIP predicts that the USD will depreciate against the JPY by approximately the interest rate differential of 4.0% annually.
This means that although USD offers higher yields, investors expect the USD to weaken relative to JPY over the investment horizon, offsetting the higher interest return.
2. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP)
CIP states that the forward exchange rate should adjust to offset the interest rate differential, eliminating arbitrage opportunities by using forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk.
With USD rates higher than JPY rates, the USD is expected to trade at a forward discount relative to JPY, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate will be lower than the spot rate to compensate for the higher USD interest rate.
This ensures no arbitrage profit from borrowing in JPY and investing in USD while hedging currency risk.
This implies the forward rate is about 151.82 USD/JPY, higher than the spot rate, indicating a forward premium on USD relative to JPY.
Note: This suggests USD is trading at a forward premium, which contradicts the earlier interpretation. This discrepancy arises because in USD/JPY quoting, USD is the base currency and JPY the quote currency. The direction of the interest rate differential effect depends on the quoting convention.
Important Clarification on Quoting Conventions:
USD/JPY is quoted as Japanese yen per 1 US dollar.
When the domestic currency is USD, and foreign currency is JPY, the formula applies as above.
Since USD interest rates are higher, the JPY is trading at a forward discount relative to USD, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate is higher than the spot rate (USD is expected to appreciate).
Summary:
Aspect Result / Interpretation
Interest Rate Differential USD 4.5% vs. JPY 0.5% → 4.0% differential
UIP Prediction USD expected to appreciate against JPY by ~4% (due to quoting)
CIP Forward Rate Forward USD/JPY rate > Spot rate (USD at forward premium)
Carry Trade Borrow in low-rate JPY, invest in high-rate USD to earn carry
Conclusion:
With USD interest rate at 4.5% and BOJ rate at 0.5%, the covered interest rate parity (CIP) implies the USD will trade at a forward premium against JPY, i.e., the forward USD/JPY rate will be higher than the spot rate by roughly the interest rate differential.
The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) suggests that investors expect the USD to appreciate against JPY by about 4% over the investment horizon, compensating for the higher USD interest rate.
This supports typical carry trade strategies where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in high-yielding USD assets, profiting from the interest differential.
#usdjpy #dollar #yen #jpy
Review and plan for 11th July 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Analysis of "what i traded today".
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
A bit of profit taking on NVDA and then up again?NASDAQ:NVDA is the most talked about and everyone is capitalizing on that. Let's take a look.
NASDAQ:NVDA
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
AUDCHF; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaOANDA:AUDCHF
In this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of AUDCHF, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
Like, share and comment! ❤️
Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
Copper - the hot topic this weekUS is planning to implement tariffs on copper imports at a scale of 50%. It's an interesting move, which might not make much sense. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Weekly Analysis of the Dollar Index, BTC, SPX500, NAS100 & GOLDIn this week's video I break down key technical patterns and indicators to discuss the behavior and direction of the Dollar index, Bitcoin, SPX500 and NAS100 Indices and finally GOLD for the coming week. I highlight price trends, support and resistance levels, candlestick formations, and moving averages to identify potential targets. My goal is to interpret market sentiment and forecast possible price movements based on historical data and technical signals. I hope you find value in my analysis to make informed trade and investment decisions. Cheers
Using the New 2025 TradingView Screener to find Golden CrossesIn this video, I show you how to use the new TradingView 2025 screener to quickly find stocks forming a golden cross and how to add the 50 and 200 simple moving averages to your charts for clear visual confirmation. A golden cross happens when the 50 moving average crosses up through the 200 moving average. Many traders (both fundamental and technical) watch for this pattern as a sign that a stock (or even whole market) may be shifting from a downtrend to a new uptrend.
Using the TradingView Screener we can quickly find Golden crosses to help filter for potential momentum setups without having to scan hundreds of charts manually. They are not magic signals, but when combined with your own analysis, they can help you spot bigger picture trends that are gaining strength. I walk through step-by-step how to set up your screener to catch these crossovers and add them to your watchlist.
If you want to keep your trading process simple while still catching moves early, this is a practical tool worth adding to your workflow. I also show a few quick tips on how to clean up your filters to reduce the number of stocks you have to go through.
Hope you find this useful. Please like and follow if you do :)
How to Use TradingView Alerts to Catch Momentum Shifts Here’s a quick video on setting alerts in TradingView.
I use alerts for stocks I’m interested in but want to give more time to set up. Instead of using a basic price alert, I prefer setting alerts on MACD crossovers to signal when momentum is shifting back in my favor. As a rule of thumb, the deeper the crossover, the better the value and potential momentum. Crossovers below the MACD zero line are particularly useful, especially for stocks that had strong momentum and were making new highs before pulling back.
This approach helps confirm that the stock has had time to build a solid base before I enter. TradingView will then send me an email alert or play a chime if I have it open, letting me track multiple stocks and setups without constantly checking charts. It’s also great for monitoring take-profit and stop-loss levels.
You can apply the same strategy with nearly any indicator on TradingView to time your entries and exits with more confidence.