Hong Kong vs New York: Who Wins the Final Round? | HK50 BreakdowHong Kong vs New York — two giants, two very different charts. In this breakdown, I’ll walk you through the key support/resistance levels on HK50, possible fakeouts, and where the next real trigger might appear. No hype, just a clear look at what’s really happening.
X-indicator
EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, Video of my trades last weekMy second video explaining my trades for last week 18-22nd August. I have been trading for years but just started publishing my trades. Hopefully this will keep me more disciplined and someone might learn something. If you have any questions send me a message here or on X and enjoy the weekend.
NZDUSD NZDUSD Exchange Rate
The New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZD/USD) is trading around 0.5866.7
The NZD has been weakening slightly recently, influenced by global uncertainty and interest rate movements.
10-Year Bond Yields
New Zealand 10-Year Government Bond Yield: 4.415%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Approximately 4.256%
Interest Rate Decisions
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Recently cut Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% in August 2025, signaling a weakening economy and indications of possible further rate cuts in early 2026.
US Federal Reserve: Maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% as of the last meeting. The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode, with the next decision scheduled for late September 2025.
These rates and bond yields reflect the accommodative monetary stance by the RBNZ to support growth amid headwinds, while the US Fed maintains a tight policy stance amidst lingering inflation concerns.
Jerome Powell's speech at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium had a significant market impact, particularly on NZD/USD:
Powell signaled a clear shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, indicating that the "balance of risks appears to be shifting" toward a need for interest rate cuts as early as the September Fed meeting.
He acknowledged slowing job growth and unusual labor market dynamics, warning of increasing employment risks that might necessitate policy easing.
While he did not explicitly commit to a rate cut, his dovish tone raised market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September from around 70% to over 90%.
This caused US Treasury yields to fall, weakening the US Dollar and boosting higher-yielding currencies like the New Zealand Dollar.
The outlook of impending Fed easing combined with recent RBNZ rate cuts improved risk sentiment, lifting NZD/USD from its four-month low
Powell's speech effectively helped traders position for a softer Fed in the near term, providing a bullish catalyst for NZDUSD.
In summary, Powell’s remarks opened the door to Fed rate cuts, easing USD strength.
#NZDUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-22 : Is This The Top?This is a follow-up to my recent video to help answer questions and to share my analysis of the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin for all viewers.
This video also addresses the tools I use to stay on top of the swings in price movement and highlights why I believe the markets may continue to unwind from these lofty highs.
Get some.
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Powell Delivers at Jackson Hole - NVDA and PCE Up NextNearly a 200% ATR move today in the S&P
SPY didn't close beyond all-time highs
QQQ didn't close beyond all-time highs
DIA did close above all-time highs
IWM continues its strong rally for August
I'm noticing some serious rotation into small cap, mid cap, and seeing the markets allocate
outside of Mag7, Tech, and AI
Powell all but guaranteed a September rate cut and the market loved it - yet prices aren't necessarily higher (yet). I still think the Aug-Oct window is ripe for a small correction and pullback to offer up better positioning for end of year
NVDA Earnings next week Wednesday
US PCE and Core PCE Friday to close out the month
I'm curious if the SPX 6500 resistance level will continue to hold firm - let's see
Thanks for watching!!!
GOLDTHE Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks and market moves,powell delivering a keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Powell’s speech, titled “Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review,” is highly anticipated as it may signal the Fed’s plans for interest rates and address challenges like inflation (currently ~2.6-3.1% above the Fed’s 2% target), a slowing labor market (July job growth at 35,000, unemployment at 4.2%), and President Trump’s tariffs. Powell has emphasized data-driven decisions and Fed independence amid political pressure from Trump to cut rates. He suggested that current conditions “may warrant” a rate cut, with markets pricing in a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September.
Significance: This speech could move markets, as Powell’s comments often set expectations for monetary policy. A rate cut could lower borrowing costs, potentially benefiting agricultural sectors (e.g., mint farmers) by reducing loan rates for equipment or land. However, persistent inflation from tariffs could counteract these benefits by raising input costs.
4:30 PM USD: FOMC Member Beth Hammack Speaks: Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed and an FOMC voting member.
Hammack, alongside other Fed officials like Raphael Bostic, has expressed skepticism about an immediate rate cut, citing inflation above the 2% target and robust business activity. Her remarks may focus on balancing inflation control with labor market stability.
Hammack’s comments could temper expectations for aggressive rate cuts, influencing market sentiment. Her perspective may highlight structural economic shifts, such as tariff impacts, which could indirectly affect commodity markets
Day 2: Jackson Hole Symposium What: An annual economic conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, themed in 2025 as “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
The symposium gathers central bankers, policymakers, and academics to discuss critical economic issues. This year’s focus on labor markets aligns with concerns about slowing job growth (down to 35,000/month in July) and reduced labor force participation due to tighter immigration policies. Powell’s speech is a highlight, but other Fed officials, like Collins and Hammack, and global central bankers (e.g., ECB’s Olli Rehn) also contribute. Discussions may cover AI’s role in monetary policy, tariff effects, and debt sustainability.
The symposium shapes global economic narratives. For agriculture (e.g., mint production), policy signals from Jackson Hole could influence input costs (via inflation) and export markets (via trade policies).
watch 3374 supply roof and see the correction into our zone and look for buy opportunity again.
GOLDTHE Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks and market moves,powell delivering a keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
Powell’s speech, titled “Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review,” is highly anticipated as it may signal the Fed’s plans for interest rates and address challenges like inflation (currently ~2.6-3.1% above the Fed’s 2% target), a slowing labor market (July job growth at 35,000, unemployment at 4.2%), and President Trump’s tariffs. Powell has emphasized data-driven decisions and Fed independence amid political pressure from Trump to cut rates. He suggested that current conditions “may warrant” a rate cut, with markets pricing in a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September.
Significance: This speech could move markets, as Powell’s comments often set expectations for monetary policy. A rate cut could lower borrowing costs, potentially benefiting agricultural sectors (e.g., mint farmers) by reducing loan rates for equipment or land. However, persistent inflation from tariffs could counteract these benefits by raising input costs.
4:30 PM USD: FOMC Member Beth Hammack Speaks: Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Fed and an FOMC voting member.
Hammack, alongside other Fed officials like Raphael Bostic, has expressed skepticism about an immediate rate cut, citing inflation above the 2% target and robust business activity. Her remarks may focus on balancing inflation control with labor market stability.
Hammack’s comments could temper expectations for aggressive rate cuts, influencing market sentiment. Her perspective may highlight structural economic shifts, such as tariff impacts, which could indirectly affect commodity markets
Day 2: Jackson Hole Symposium What: An annual economic conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, themed in 2025 as “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”
The symposium gathers central bankers, policymakers, and academics to discuss critical economic issues. This year’s focus on labor markets aligns with concerns about slowing job growth (down to 35,000/month in July) and reduced labor force participation due to tighter immigration policies. Powell’s speech is a highlight, but other Fed officials, like Collins and Hammack, and global central bankers (e.g., ECB’s Olli Rehn) also contribute. Discussions may cover AI’s role in monetary policy, tariff effects, and debt sustainability.
The symposium shapes global economic narratives. For agriculture (e.g., mint production), policy signals from Jackson Hole could influence input costs (via inflation) and export markets (via trade policies).
watch 3374 supply roof and see the correction into our zone and look for buy opportunity again.
BITCOIN PREDICTION: PUMP TO $135K STARTING???! (Buy Now?) Yello Paradisers! In this video, I'm sharing with you the high time frame chart, the double shooting star candlestick pattern, double top formation, bearish divergence that needs to be confirmed, and its channel that we are trying to break to the downside. High time frame chart, I'm sharing with you the ABC zigzag and the potentiality of that C move being already finished. If not, the previous low needs to hold, and we are looking at things on a medium time frame. The bullish things on a medium time frame are the bullish divergence, and on a low time frame chart, the Elliott wave count that seems to be completed to the downside. If the previous low is going to hold, we are starting a new impulse towards $129,000 as a higher degree third wave. Then we will have a fourth wave, and the final fifth wave will take us towards $135,000. Watch the video where I'm explaining all the confirmations and the price action dynamics, and how we will be developing with the highest probability.
Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.
BTCUSD UNDER STRONG BEARISH PRESSUREThe price of Bitcoin BTCUSD has been hit with a Rejection on Daily Time Frame after last week bull movement that hit $123346 price region as Resistance and traded downward to $112298 with inside pin bar on 4H Time Frame if the price close below $111345 we will see a more dive down to $105233 - $102453 price level.
DAX is forming an interesting short-term patternLooking at the technical picture of DAX, we can see that the German index seems to be preparing for a breakout. Maybe Powell's speech could be that catalyst? Let's find out.
XETR:DAX
MARKETSCOM:DE30
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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XAUUSD and DXY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
BITCOIN BITCOIN ,the demand floor support held buyers ,while am praying for a breakout for bearish continuation into the next demandfloor at 109-108 zone and on the buying side i want to see another retest to to broken demand floor of a descending trendline .if we break it ,i will look for more buy position into 120-121 zone
layer by layer ,secure your profit.
trading is 100% probability
risk management is key and that is what makes you a good trader
GOODLUCK.
BYE
A Bear market bounce or something more?CYBN weekly bear break had significant followthrough - does today's big bounce change anything? Well, no, not yet. But we have a setup to change the hourly trend back to bullish tomorrow or Monday, and then from there bulls want to see the bounce continue high enough where we can expect a higher low above the low of the bear break at 6.25. One day at a time, but out of all the charts I cover, this is the only one where the bears remain firmly in control and comfortable.
I publish regular technical analysis of the psychedelic sector. Be sure to like and follow to not miss an important update!
Gold Futures | H4 FVG Fully Filled – What’s Next Into Weekly CloEarlier this week I was watching for price to pull back into the new H4 FVG after we closed above the Daily High. Price rejected from the Asian range mid and dropped cleanly into that zone, ultimately filling the H4 FVG completely.
Now on Friday, price sits right at the Weekly Low (3775.9) and the bottom of that H4 gap. This is a key decision point going into the weekly close.
📌 Scenarios I’m Watching:
✅ Bullish: If price holds this filled H4 FVG / W-L zone, we could see a re-accumulation and a push back toward 3388–3392 rejection block and possibly the Daily High (3394.6) next week.
❌ Bearish: If price fails to hold here, the next liquidity pools below are 3367.4 (D-L) and 3362.5.
📌 Key Levels:
Daily High: 3394.6
Weekly Low: 3775.9
Daily Low: 3367.4
Into Friday close, I’ll be watching whether we get acceptance above this zone (bullish continuation setup) or rejection that opens the door to new weekly lows.
👉 What do you think? Will this area hold as support, or do we see a deeper flush before the week closes?
CMPS holds key weekly support - can bulls finally break out?CMPS confirmed an inverse head and shoulders pattern to change the hourly uptrend after holding key 3.92 weekly support just barely yesterday. We have not seen daily lower highs broke but we will be watching for this to happen tomorrow. Houlry uptrend will be our guide in determining when this push higher has topped out.
I publish regular technical analysis of the psychedelic sector. Be sure to like and follow to not miss an important update!
MNMD bulls looking to take out key resistanceMNMD solid move back towards thd $10 range. Key resitstance tomorrow will be the daily lower high from Monday as bulls have regrouped after the rejection from 10.49 and look to want to break through this long term area of resistance once and for all. Hourly uptrend will be my guide as to knowing when this move has topped out.
I publish regular technical analysis of the psychedelic sector. Be sure to like and follow to not miss an important update!
ATAI confirms the weekly bull flagATAI confirmed the weekly bullflag today on big bull volume on a day when the overall markets were slightly down and mostly sideways. Hourly trend change this moring was the clue along with increasing bull volume on the 5 minute timeframe as price approached the key resistances levels. Hourly uprend will remain my guide for knowing when this most recent push higher has topped out temporarily.
I publish regular technical analysis of the psychedelic sector. Be sure to like and follow to not miss an important update!
PSIL weekly bullflag is most likely scenarioBear break of the daily equilibrium with no followthrough has me believing more and more in the weekly bull flag scenario. Still a 4hr downtrend but the bounce today made enough room where we can anticipte a higher low on the next pullback, and then look for resistance breaks on the next push forward to change hourly and 4hr trends.
I publish regular technical analysis of the psychedelic sector. Be sure to like and follow to not miss an important update!
SPX500 & NAS100 BULLISH and GOLD NEUTRALIn this week's analysis of the major indices and Gold, there is a lot of indicator divergences on the charts. However, while momentum is declined and the divergences are not confirmed yet, suggesting that the train has not come to a complete stop in my opinion. Yes!, we could be nearing the Tops but I could not confirm that on the chart. Secondly, price action just broke into a new high from a defended support zone and that suggest that Bulls are in control of the market currently for both SPX500 and NAS100.
GOLD is still in a neutral zone consolidating sideways and I think based on the chart analysis, it continues to go sideways after a push down to about 3320 and then a rise to about 3419 Target.
I hope you find the analysis informative and I thank you for visiting my video publication. Cheers and have a great trading week.
DOLLAR INDEX TO CONTINUE FALLING 8/17/2025As I have been analyzing the trajectory of the dollar index over the last 3 months, I still expect the dollar index to continue falling after a few days of sideways consolidation this coming week. During the consolidation, I will be looking for a retrace up to about the 97.600 level and any open and close candle above the 97.600 level will invalidate this thesis. Target for this week after we gather steam to break the support level (97.200) is at 96.881 - 97.746.
I thank everyone for taking time to visit my video publications and wish the best of trades for you this week. Cheers!!