View my other publications, horndogs....
We are in a larger A-B-C corrective move to end in 2025. The overthrow of bear trendline in oversold and negative divergence territories will create turbulence. The fed will raise by 50bpts + 25 + 25 + pause for 6-8 months. Job losses and negative gdp are not present for the fed to confirm their work is done.
You will all...
So let's start with fake growth. It is not justified by anything other than the desire of a major player to deprive stop losses before falling. Ema200 became a serious resistance. Also, Powell did not change his rhetoric in favor of the stock market. 50 points is the goal that the speculators deserve. And now the rally down from technical analysis. I'm aiming for...
The Fed likely wants a controlled, low-volatility burn on stock prices. If prices gravitate too far upward or downward from the trend channel, the Fed can adjust liquidity via the combination of QT and its Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP) program.
Although, in my opinion, there is not any fundamental reason behind it, SP500 could start rising in this first part of the year.
There is a very good saying between traders: "trade what you see, not what you think" and, what I see are 3 weeks of rejection from the 3800 zone.
With this in mind, if this 3800 low remains intact, we can have a nice rise from SP500...
SPX broke through the 4040 critical resistance line in Thursday's trades but will be challenged at 4082.50, an area of resistance in the past, as highlighted in the attached price chart. 4040 is now a major support which could be tested if it fails to breakout at 4082.50.
please read my previous publications where i breakdown and zoom in on these views
we expect a return to the mean of 3275 and followed by a short squeeze and emerging markets rally to pursue the new highs that have been made in the uk stock markets and others, before plummeting into liquidity and demand territories below 3000.
Who knows? We could even reach below...
Hello0oooo beautiful people!!!! Happy holidays!!!! If you ask me for a new year wish, would be to see the $SPX #SPX around the $3200 area if lower better. Remember this is a long term game and if you can get stuff at a discount price, why not? I am not saying is going to get there BUT how nice would it be! :)
That's what I would like to see! let's see how it...
Short term, Elliott wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) showing 5 swing sequence lower from 12.01.2022 peak of 4087.3 as the part of correction lower in (2) against 10.13.2022 low. Ideally, (2) expects to unfold in 3, 7 or 11 swings and should hold above 10.13.2022 low to turning higher. Below 4087.3 high, it starts correcting lower in proposed wave (2) down. It favored...
Not financial advice.
This is the monthly chart and you can see from years past that when we hit the top of the trendline we have 3 down years.
Will history repeat?
This would be the first full year so 2 more years to go and lose 50% of it's value?
You be the judge.
But history very good indicator of what's happens in the future.
Remember
PIK
Patience is...
In line with Yardeni, this also predicts ~4350 fail.
The 1/e decay is set to a 200d window. Decaylines are respected. So are regression channels.
It would seem that the fall would start around December 22, 2022 and end late February.
Time will tell if this is realized.
Thick blue is Kalman Smoother, thin blue is Kalman Filter.
this strat has a high reliability giving signals. every time spx goes far outside the envelope the index corrects to estimate sometimes crashing down to sss ma or demand zone (the last time it touched that was 1929). if we stay above upper envelope and estimate we could enter a broader matket recovery, but if we see continued downside we are headed much lower.
There is both a old gap from September which can be filled and the risk/reward is also interesting enough, therefore I published this bearish short idea. I have to break one of my trading rules though to come to the conclusion that the "S&P 500" is going lower, therefore the probability for the decline is low. Bulls could also breakout from here, therefore the...
Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
CBOE
