Day Session Price Action REview ES 5-16-24Going over today price Action ES looking for clues and how we could have traded it better. working on dialing in our strategies and going with the trend and structures. 02:48by BobbyS8130
Are new sellers entering the market?Does the selling action on Thursdays S&P 500 indicate that new sellers are entering the market or are buyers selling to take profits? Friday's price action will give us additional clues about who's in control as we go into the weekend.03:04by DanGramza3
AMP Futures introduction to TradingView Mobile (Getting Started)In this video, we will help you learn the essential functions of the TradingView mobile application with AMP Futures.Editors' picksEducation41:11by AMP_Futures1159
ES Short IdeaI like this path on ES. If it plays out, 5300 will be a critical test. We could see a move back to 5200 if it doesn't hold. Shortby AdvancedPlays0
ES UpdateCRazy... way overbought and looks like a melt up. Got stopped out of my puts for even money, but I made plenty on the CPI pump so I'm done for the week. Not gonna short anything on Ponzi Friday. I'm not into chasing an overbought market, see ya guys Monday.by hungry_hippoUpdated 336
Fakeout City for ESES had a bull flag breakout and it looked like it was going to hold on a retest but the. It dumped. It tried to break low of day earlier and bounced, VX is barcoding. This bull flag has had a fakeout to the upside and downside no. Most important level for me is still 5300.by AdvancedPlays0
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.12 - 5.17Last Week : Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge. We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it. This Week : We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders. Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers. Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day. Levels to watch : Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75 Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25by HollowMnUpdated 5
Morning Price Action REview ES 4-16-24Going over the price action ES MOrning session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded the session better.02:20by BobbyS8130
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but highly extended and statistically due for a significant pullback after 10 consecutive green days. Proceed with extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5308-10 (major) Major Supports: 5272 (major), 5253-56 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5145-50 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5327-31 (major), 5337 (major), 5370-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5395-5400 (major), 5430-35 (major) Trading Strategy Extreme Caution: 10 green days in a row is statistically rare, and a deep pullback could occur at any time. Long Opportunities: Avoid chasing long entries at current levels. Focus on potential bids at 5308-10 only after a dip and strong reaction (ideally, a failed breakdown of the afternoon low). Consider deeper longs at 5272, 5253-56, or lower majors only on strong confirmations (failed breakdowns of lows, etc.). Short Opportunities: While shorting in a strong uptrend is discouraged, those comfortable with counter-trend trades may consider the 5370-72 zone, but only after a bounce/failed breakdown. Proceed with extreme caution. Prioritize Preservation: Focus on protecting profits and minimizing risk exposure in this highly uncertain environment. Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups. Bull Case Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES needs to hold above 5308-10 on any dips, with a new base forming between 5308 and 5331. This would be the most bullish scenario, leading to a potential test of 5337, 5348, then 5370-72. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5308-10 could trigger a substantial dip. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns at 5272, 5253-56, and lower major supports for potential long entries if the market rebounds. If 5308-10 fails, consider shorts after a bounce/failed breakdown at 5300. News: Top Stories for May 16th, 2024 📈 S&P 500 Hits All-Time High: Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, closing at 5,253 points. This reflects investor confidence and market optimism driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. 🌐 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are preparing for their spring meetings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. These meetings will address global economic issues, including conflict impacts and strategic economic adjustments. 🏦 UN Economic Update: The United Nations will launch the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This update will assess global economic conditions, highlighting challenges such as high interest rates, debt difficulties, and geopolitical risks. 📊 Wall Street Analyst Revisions: Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts for the S&P 500 due to the market's unexpected strength. This reflects the dynamic nature of market expectations and investor agility in navigating the evolving financial landscape. 🌍 Critical Minerals Demand: Global economic discussions are focusing on managing the demand for critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies. This ties into broader sustainability goals and the economic opportunities and challenges for developing countries.Longby spytradingpro1
ES Day Trade Long Idea ES is continuing the run from yesterday and VX remains dead. I like longs for today. If it breaks premarket highs, I'll look for an entry on a retest.Longby AdvancedPlays0
The S&P and NQ Breaking Out? What to KnowE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5333.00, up 63.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,691.75, up 276.75 We have fresh record highs in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures. So, where to next? Let’s not put the cart in front of the horse; we MUST first break out decisively and close out above the previous record highs from April 1st and March 21st, respectively, on a weekly basis. If this move struggles to follow through, we will look to a number of support levels leading into major three-star support defined by yesterday’s data spike and opening hour trade at 5303.25-5308.25 in the E-mini S&P and 18,532-18,547 in the E-mini NQ. Powering yesterday’s move was momentum; E-mini S&P futures secured the ninth positive session out of ten, with the only miss being a 1.00-point loss on May 13th. Next, earnings broadly have been solid, with leadership outperforming expectations. Lastly, the heartbeat of this record run comes from slowing economic data, and specifically, after three hotter-than-expected CPI reports, yesterday’s slower read encouraged a risk-on move and an unwind of negative positions (short covering). It is not only CPI thought, the job market is loosening up, the Services sector is beginning to show holes, yesterday’s NY Empire State Manufacturing contracted larger than expected, and Retail Sales slowed. This has all contained a rally in 10-year yields, sending it to the lowest level since early April and helping to stoke the risk-appetite. Today, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 66.7% probability the Fed will cut twice this year. This morning, we look to Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Housing Starts, all due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 a.m. CT, and traders must also keep an eye out for Fed speak. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5343.25**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25*** Pivot: 5333-5333.50 Support: 5321-5325.25**, 5315.25-5316.75**, 5303.25-5308.50***, 5286.75-5292.75***, 5269.50-5274.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,687-18,709****, 18,825***, 19,085***, 19,319*** Pivot: 18,645 Support: 18,602-18,613**, 18,532-18,547***, 18,446-18,485***, 18,415**, 18,336-18,371**** Micro Bitcoin (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66,495, up 4,660 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646*** Pivot: 65.700 Support: 64,540-64,975**, 63,440-63,900**, 62,995*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Blue_Line_Futures0
ATHS?Been calling aths since NFP. Price respected 1D FVG on both indices. Labels for potential TPS Wick might hold up price Longby StavrosKUpdated 0
ES Overnight and yesterday Price Action REview 4-15Going over the price action from the CPI report and Overnight sessions. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. talk less, listen more. talk less, listen more. 05:10by BobbyS8130
ES1! evening updateAs price has poked above 5333.50, the bear scenario has officially been invalidated. I have four different impulse waves from the low of 4963.50 (green ellipses). I see no way to create a diagonal from the price action in the orange ellipse. How these impulse waves will fit together is yet to be determined, but it is likely that ES1! will grind upward for the next several weeks. I will be curious to see how price reacts once ES1! gets to 5382-5400 range; a significant correction in this range will likely be helpful in determining the overall count.by discobiscuit1
Momentum is picking up.After the release of the CPI data on Wednesday buying momentum is picking up in the S&P 500. The expectation is follow through to the upside but not a large move on Thursday.Editors' picks01:31by DanGramza44173
2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following. current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600). key levels: 5000 - 5337 bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290. bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345 short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.by priceactiontds0
ES UpdateAnd now we're overbought on RSI and MFI. Dumped everything before I wrote this post. Made $4k on this stupid pump by going long yesterday, might take some of that and play for the dip tomorrow, but did well for a quick one day trade so might call it a week and go back to working on projects at home.by hungry_hippoUpdated 2211
S&P BUYI speculated that the market would be bullish. I got in the trade at 5300.00 and, I got out at 5305.00.21:56by PATGLLC0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).Longby spytradingpro0
ES Trade Plan After CPIToday's trade plan will be very simple. I'm looking for a break and retest of 5300 for longs and shorts if it fails to sustain and break above 5300.by AdvancedPlays1
ES Morning Price Action Review 5-15-24Going over Morning Price ACtion ES pre CPI. looking for clues as to how to trade the day. Not much to do till we get the CPI. 01:26by BobbyS8131
ES IRL > ERL Long ideaLong idea for ES, wait to see what price does at that internal range liquidityLongby RapidSandUpdated 1
Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 waiting for the next challenge which is the release of the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The bias is for the market to continue higher but how it interprets and absorbs the CPI numbers is 50-50.02:09by DanGramza112