PUT Spread on /ES Neutral to Long strategy58 days out, Jul 26th 90% chance to win on this trade without needing to adjust -4690 +4640 PUT side $100 premium, $13 in fees, $697 capital allocated 12.4% Will close around 50-70% Next time doing one of these will aim for at least $100 post fees.by leongabanUpdated 0
SP500**SP500:** This week's forecast will be for the price to drop to the bottom of the channel and after that we'll have the scenario of the price continuing its descent to the 4,993 zone or reversing the trend and retesting the historical highs.Shortby simaoxceps0
20240531 ESI anticipate more downside on 8.30 HI news, d ss raid and reversal to the upside for the rest of the day. Longby Yoo_CoolUpdated 1
Overnight Price ACtion REview ESGoing over the price action Overnight ES looking for clues and what our plan for the day is. 03:03by BobbyS8130
Options Blueprint Series: Secure Interest Rates with Box SpreadsIntroduction The E-mini S&P 500 Futures is a popular and widely traded derivative product. These futures are used by traders and investors to hedge their portfolios, gain market exposure, and manage risk. The Options Box Strategy is an advanced options trading technique that involves creating a synthetic long position and a synthetic short position simultaneously. This strategy is designed to lock in interest rates and profit from price discrepancies, essentially securing a risk-free return through arbitrage. By using Box Spreads, traders can secure interest rates and achieve a potential arbitrage opportunity in a controlled and predictable manner. An interesting application of the Box Spread strategy is using unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders can earn a risk-free return on idle cash by deploying it in Box Spreads. This approach maximizes the utility of available capital, providing an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure, thus enhancing overall portfolio performance. E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract Specifications: Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index Minimum Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equal to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week Margin Requirement: $11,800 at the time of publishing this article Micro E-minis: 10 times smaller than the E-minis Understanding Box Spreads A Box Spread is a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously entering a long call and short put at one strike price and a long put and short call at another strike price. Components of a Box Spread: Long Call: Buying a call option at a specific strike price. Short Put: Selling a put option at the same strike price as the long call. Long Put: Buying a put option at a different strike price. Short Call: Selling a call option at the same strike price as the long put. How Box Spreads Secure Interest Rates: Box Spreads are designed to exploit mispricings between the synthetic long and short positions. By locking in these positions, traders can secure interest rates as the net result of the Box Spread should theoretically yield a risk-free return. This strategy is particularly useful in stable market conditions where interest rate fluctuations can impact the profitability of other trading strategies. Advantages of Using Box Spreads: Arbitrage Opportunities: Box Spreads allow traders to capitalize on discrepancies in the pricing of options, securing a risk-free profit. Predictable Returns: The strategy locks in a fixed rate of return, providing certainty and stability. Risk Management: By simultaneously holding synthetic long and short positions, the risk is minimized, making it an effective strategy for conservative traders. Applying Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures To apply the Box Spread strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures, follow the following step-by-step approach. Step-by-Step: 1. Identify Strike Prices: Choose two strike prices for the options. For instance, select a lower strike price (LK) and a higher strike price (HK). 2. Enter Long Call and Short Put: Buy a call option at the lower strike price (K1). Sell a put option at the same lower strike price (K1). 3. Enter Long Put and Short Call: Buy a put option at the higher strike price (K2). Sell a call option at the same higher strike price (K2). Potential Outcomes and Rate Security: The Box Spread locks in a risk-free return by exploiting price discrepancies. The profit is determined by the difference between the strike prices minus the net premium paid. In stable market conditions, this strategy provides a predictable and secure return, effectively locking in interest rates. Advantages of Applying Box Spreads: Risk-Free Arbitrage: The primary benefit is securing a risk-free profit through arbitrage. Predictable Returns: Provides a fixed return, beneficial for conservative traders. Minimal Risk: By holding both synthetic long and short positions, market risk is mitigated. Considerations: Ensure precise execution to avoid slippage and maximize the arbitrage opportunity. Account for transaction costs, as they can impact the overall profitability. Monitor market conditions to ensure the strategy remains effective. Example Trade Setup: Let's consider a practical example of setting up a Box Spread on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures while its current trading price is 5,531. We'll use the following strike prices: Lower Strike Price (K1): 5450 Higher Strike Price (K2): 5650 Transactions: Sell Call at 5650: Premium = 240.01 Buy Put at 5650: Premium = 352.85 Sell Put at 5450: Premium = 270.59 Buy Call at 5450: Premium = 347.39 Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. Net Premium Calculation: Net premium paid = 347.39 - 240.01 + 352.85 - 270.59 = 189.64 Potential Profit Calculation: Profit = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) - Net Premium Paid Profit = 5650 – 5450 – 189.64 = 10.36 points = $518 ($50 per point) Rate Of Return (ROR) Calculation: Margin Requirement = (Higher Strike Price - Lower Strike Price) × Contract Multiplier = 200 x 50 = $10,000 ROR = 518 / 10000 = 5.18% Annualized ROR = 518 / 10000 x 365.25 / 383 = 4.94% (based on the screenshots, expiration will take place in 383.03 days while a year is made of 365.25 days) Interesting Application: Utilizing Box Spreads with Unutilized Capital An intriguing application of the Box Spread strategy is the use of unutilized capital in a trading account. Traders often have idle cash in their accounts that isn't actively engaged in trading. By deploying this capital in Box Spreads, traders can earn a risk-free return on otherwise dormant funds. This approach not only maximizes the utility of available capital but also provides an additional revenue stream without increasing market risk exposure. Utilizing Box Spreads in this manner can enhance overall portfolio performance, making efficient use of all available resources. Importance of Risk Management Risk management is a critical aspect of any trading strategy, including the implementation of Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures. Effective risk management ensures that traders can mitigate potential losses and protect their capital, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. Conclusion Implementing the Options Box Strategy on E-mini S&P 500 Futures may allow traders to secure interest rates and potentially achieve risk-free arbitrage opportunities. By understanding the mechanics of Box Spreads and applying them effectively, traders can capitalize on price discrepancies in the options market to lock in predictable returns. Key points to remember include: E-mini S&P 500 Futures offer accessible and efficient trading opportunities for both hedging and speculative purposes. Box Spreads combine synthetic long and short positions, providing a powerful tool for securing interest rates through arbitrage. By following the outlined steps and leveraging classical technical indicators, traders can enhance their ability to set up and analyze Box Spreads, making the most of this advanced options strategy. Utilizing Box Spreads on E-mini S&P 500 Futures not only can secure interest rates but can also provide a structured and disciplined approach to trading, leading to more consistent and sustainable trading performance. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.Educationby traddictiv1
Analysis for the Week of 06/03/2024 - SPY QQQ META COIN BTCA video going over my thoughts and expectations for the week, I'll continue to post ideas and updates as things develop throughout the week.10:34by AdvancedPlays1
Reversal immenantFriday we went up from S5 to R6. This is the ultimate SELL zone. TTM Squeeze Pro has placed 3 orange SELL dots above the last 15" Bearish harami. Between this evening,. Sunday's overnight market, and mondays open we might go a little higher first or make the move in the overnight session, but one way or the other we reversa and go xown either this evening or on monday. Stoch RSI is heading up to overbought. MACD is totally overbought at an extreme level and rolling over. TTM squeeze shows strong buying, but that stochastic shows what happen Friday, the next phase is weak biuying and then selling. I chose neutral, but i could have chosen SELL, it's just a matter of how things look tonight at the open of the futures markets.Shortby dryanhawleyUpdated 4
Bounce by ES 5180 LONG from there.This is the additional Pivot level we added to the Indicator CD_Camarilla All_Levels, so it is the extreme of the extreme buy level. Buying at this level S6 is very safe, just like selling an ALL time High R6, which has never cost me. If you dob't know about The Pivots study my Ideas. We had. run for 3 months with over 99 trades before we had a loss ( We sold R5, and the FOMC made a surprise RATE change which aused the market to go up for 2 months. Lesson to be learned there is #1 always safe a stop outside the pivots range, a catastropic stop, not a "tight stop" whch the MM use to tforce overtrading. #2 Don't trade, as a rule, before an FOMC announcement. These are swing trades based on 60" to 6 hour charrts, The Pivots don't show up in daily and above charts. If you understand what The Pivots are and how they work you know why. a days pivot range is created based on the previous intraday Pivots range. My trades are also based on many other factors, elliot waves, TTM Squeeze Pro, Candlesticks, etc. In a 6 hour chart we have a shooting star to continue down. No doubt we will explore S5 and possibly S6. I have been posting Ideas for 8 years here. Look at my past posts.. 2019 i predicted we would go up for 5 more Ellitot waves before the first ATH Jan 22. My next major post/Idee was March 2022, I shared that we had a "Tripple Thrust parrern from 2010 we went up on 3 sets of 5 waves up, corrected down from a lwer high, down for 6000 points on the NQ. Then I posted we would continue up as part of Elliots, Grand Supercycle Bull Market to new ATH which we have all seen. If you like my Ideas please follow me. I called this a LONG, but don't buy before S5 or S6 next week.Longby dryanhawleyUpdated 1
ES1! big picture updateMy bullish count for ES1!. I have us in wave 3 of (5) of ((3)) of V. It looks like wave 2 has completed. I expect ES1! to grind up the rest of the spring and summer, with target of ~6000 and the median line of the pitchfork drawn from COVID-19 low, January 2022 high and October 2022 low.by discobiscuit0
The Macro Narrative of the S&PThe S&P 500 is in a bit of a pickle in terms of orderflow. Looking at the Cumulative Delta Volume (CVD) and price, relative to April's highs, we see that the deltas have peeled off significantly. In this case, the CVD is showing exhaustion. Bulls are, perhaps, not as serious as before. This will give some solace to market short-sellers, though I would prefer to see absorption where CVD makes a higher high and the price does not. In any case, the swing in deltas from staggeringly positive to staggeringly negative gives us some insight into what the "big boys" are thinking. It is my opinion that we will see MES (and SPX) in the upper 4900-5000 range in the coming weeks. Summers are notoriously slow for trading, so it will be interesting to see how this develops. Shortby PureDeltaUpdated 4
Traders Alert ! May 31,2024Traders Alert ! If the Front Month S+P 500 Futures Contract June 2024 (ESM24), closes below 5216.75, then a potential waterfall decline could occur. Traders are advised to closely monitor the market this afternoon near the close, as Month- End Position Squaring, especially those on the wrong side of this market, as well as the two day weekend,could heighten market volatility dramatically during the first week of June. THE_UNWIND Woods Of ConnecticutShortby The_UnwindUpdated 338
Upside move is expected for MondayContinuation of an upside move is expected for Monday in the S&P 500. Buyers entered the market on Friday. The challenge will be there ability to be consistent with additional moves to the upside.02:08by DanGramza1
Small Account Challenge Day 14 Update - +$1,788, 675% SPX WinToday was great, had some awesome short setups earlier in the morning and I was able to capitalize. Thankful to have $3k profit after the first 14 days. I'll be taking MIL:1K out so I'll be trading with profits from now on.05:20by AdvancedPlays0
Fair Value Gaps With Fibonacci Has Changed My Trading ForeverGave yall this one last night for FREE When we get the 618 Fibonacci in a fair value gap the win rate can dramatically increase Got $3k on this trade in 15 mins I plan to share more PLEASE DROP A LIKE AND FOLLOW!by tradingwarzone1
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.28 - 5.31Last Week : Last week Market opened over VAH and spent all week building Supply over it, as discussed in Sunday Prep since we were at ATH with no over hang we needed to wait for Supply to build up for any meaningful back fill of previous areas and that 5341 - 5290 might be our Range where price will want to stay around and keep returning into for some time while it builds that Supply. On Thursday we ended up pushing inside the Edge but failed to find acceptance in it and the push back out gave us the flush of the inventory filling the buyers into the Value, even with how strong the move looked with break/hold under Key Support on Friday Globex failed to hold under it and we found our way back inside 5341 - 5290 Range where we were able to push back into the Means for the Range where we closed the week in VAH. This Week : Few things this week, we have Month End, Settlement changes from T2 to T1 which we don't know just yet how that will impact the trading and we had Holiday yesterday which pushed us over VAH and we are again building up Supply over it. For now we are inside T2 Range which was Thursday I believe the change goes in effect Today or this week, we are right around Previous Days Range and 5341 - 36 already showed us this morning that it's acting properly as good Resistance. So far going into this week Thursdays flush showed us that don't have stronger buyers up here just yet who want to keep paying over Value and keep pushing us into new range above and that even with strong flush we didn't have enough Supply to accept under 5295 - 90 to continue filling more buyers into VAL. This tells me again that market may want to stay in this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range and balance around it, we have to be ready to spend quite a bit of time in these areas and trade around them until market will show us clear acceptance and intensions of moving Ranges and that can take some time because we are in a Key Spot on higher time frames we are at tops of Daily/Weekly Balances without finding acceptance above and without having the Supply just yet to move under the Middle of those balances which is around the 5290-80s area. Plan is to continue trading 5341 - 5290 Range level to level just like last week with moves out of its 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means and then returns back towards/inside them. Failures to accept over 5341 - 36 will likely find their way back to/under 24.75 - 20.75, pushes under 5310.50 - 06.50 could also be absorbed under and find their way back to/over 10.50 - 06.50 and inside the Means we could balance. We are in lower volume times so also have to give time for the moves to properly set up and be ready to correct back. Levels to watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 lower Range 5295.50 - 5244.75 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Supportby HollowMnUpdated 1
Trends Mixed; Overall Neutral Short Term on MarketsSo, as stated in the video, the shorter term timeframes of 30m/1hr/2hr have opened up to lower movements, while the 3hr/4hr/6hr have been violated and would call for a movement back up, but haven't shown that potential movement yet. We are still in a short term Bullish Zone in accordance with my moving momentum algorithm, but we are very close to hitting below that Zero Line into Bearish territory, especially if we continue to stay low like this. What I may look for is a movement into the Bearish zone, a move upward, and if that movement upward doesn't bounce us back into a bullish zone I may short the market, but we shall see. Overall long term, I'm curious if the Daily can push below and settle under 5160ish for a Lower Low. It would be the first time in quite some time that we had a lower low on the Daily trend, putting us at risk of getting a lower high Daily rebound that will call for markets to be on a decline. Overall, The Mag 7, especially NVidia, still continue to mostly carry the market with the bulk of the Dow in neutral territory at best, and the Nasdaq outside of the Mag 7 also neutral. I continue to be concerned about this rally being too narrow and traders continuing to use Mag 7 stocks as safety stashes, and what will happen if they choose to take that safety money out to stash it somewhere else. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5319 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 5313 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5309 Downtrend (5/28/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 4Hr - 5286 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 6Hr - 5287 Downtrend (5/23/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High Daily - 5330 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Economic Calendar; GDP Thursday PCE Friday Earnings to watch; Salesforce AMC today Costco earnings are tomorrow My sentiment on the market is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish / Neutral Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish Long Term - Bullish Basically, I don't see major risks in the long-term just yet, but the short term is a bag of mixed reactions. Currently in a place I feel we may need to look elsewhere. If you were looking for me to give you a warm and fuzzy on where to trade the ES Futures, I just can't give that today. Safe trading and remember your risk management.09:24by SemperTraderUpdated 1
S&P 500: Already reached the summit?According to our expectations, the overarching wave (1) in magenta should extend to a new record high. Only after this impulse do we anticipate an extended wave (2) correction. However, please note our alternative scenario (38% likely). This option will be triggered if the key 4964 level is breached and implies that the price is already in the correction.by MarketIntel0
Paths for ES Ahead of PCEI am bearish right now, but I went mostly cash before close yesterday. I'll trade the reaction in whatever direction that presents itself, but if ES can't hold 5240 and VX keeps moving higher I think ES.is headed to 5200 minimum.Shortby AdvancedPlays0
AMP Futures - Market ReplayIn this video we will demonstrate how to use Market Replay.Editors' picksEducation03:17by AMP_Futures22232
Dumpster FireWith the S&Ps inability to hold above the overnight low today, inflation data on tap for tomorrow, and an almost insane amont of crowding in every good trade available I think it is time to pay for our hubris. NVDA trade is showing cracks, MSFTs buyback program seemingly on hold and a vix close above the 50 day tells me we are in for some short term pain. Extended personal outlook: *this is not finical advice, I'm not a financial advisor! The fact that FED members are even mentioning rate hikes, even if to just dissuade us that the next move will not be one, should be alarming. Maybe they will give us a transitory rate hike. Probably not this year, but by year end, I expect the market to catch on to the fact that rates are going higher.by poedric220
AMP Futures - Keyboard ShortcutsIn this video we will demonstrate how to use Keyboard shortcuts with TradingView.Education04:04by AMP_Futures2
50-50The expectation for the S&P 500 on Friday is 50-50 in terms of moving up or down. It will primarily depend on how the market absorbs the PCE number.02:21by DanGramza1
GDP drop as expect + Bear Flag If you check 1D time frame you can see Gap down that show strong selling pressure On 1H show bear flag show impulse down wave hope this trade set up is good this time Shortby tofinse1