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MES1! trade ideas

Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500overall market comment Markets clearly proved me wrong this week and right now the only question is how high this squeeze goes before we reverse. Dax already made a new ATH and it does not look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. For the sp500 & nasdaq markets tried multiple times on Friday to melt up on big volume but some bigger institutions stuffed the attempts. The patterns and volume profile looked like we could easily melt through the weekly highs and be on our way to retest the ath’s but huge selling came through and both markets are still printing lower highs. But given that we are in a clear uptrend and printed 7 consecutive daily bull bars for the sp500, bears have no solid arguments here. The high probability trades are on the long side until bears make lower lows again. Given that we will get many inflation data points Tuesday/Wednesday I think the big move will happen then. Feel free to join the gamblers and bet on hot or cold cpi numbers. I will wait for markets to show the way and join once the direction is obvious. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: Many indicators either again slightly ticking up or stalling instead of falling. Most expectation reports remain way above 2%. Next week we get new PPI and CPI data, perfect timing for markets to be in bubble territory for a pop. rate-cuts: Next week will be key for central bank policy. If PPI and CPI will surprise up again, those rate cuts remain a pipe dream and market is currently max risk on again, which could meet a big risk off event Tuesday/Wednesday. If the numbers surprise downward, expect new all time highs and probably more blow off tops. job market: The job market was nothing short of amazing since the covid lows and as of now there are enough key metrics pointing to a weakening. The job market usually starts to decline very slowly and gradually and then it accelerates and steepens. If the next readings turn positive again, I’m obviously wrong. sp500 e-mini futures current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 key levels: 5000 - 5150 comment: The sell-off on sp500 was too strong to be a pull-back in a bull rally. My base assumption is still that the bull trend is long gone and this is a trading range. We can make new ath and my assumption could still be valid from a technical perspective but the poke above ath would have to be a spike and reverse fast, otherwise we will probably continue much higher. bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and we are at the March resistance level around 5250. They want to trap late bulls above 5200 and sell off to the daily 20ema at 5165 before testing the lower bull trend line around 5150 where I expect buyers to step in and bears to take some profits. There market decides if it want’s to retest lows or highs. short term: I have no opinion on the markets until Tuesdays US CPI release. We could stall, rally or pull-back. I wait for good opportunities to scalp and do absolutely nothing until after CPI numbers and markets have shown exactly where they want to go. I think the play is rather simple. CPI in line or cold, we print new ath’s and it if comes hot, we get a big bear spike down, followed by a nice bear channel down to 5000 and probably lower. Anything deviating from that, would be a surprise imo. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. current swing trade: none but depending on how high we get before CPI numbers, I will probably initiate a small short position. Chart update: Erased previous bear channel and count in favor of the upward trend and an bearish alternative if CPI comes in hot.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major) Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major) Trading Strategy Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes. Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities. Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72. Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance. European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing. Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts. Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets. Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally. Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments. Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions. Impact on Global Economic Stability: Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes. Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
S&P500 - Bullish opportunites ahead! - Long in flight Last weeks levels provided to be partly actionable and price has immediately responded (See attached post). Comfortable holding this 50% long position with stop/target untouched. Will be looking for opportunities to buy the other 50% and increase risk as I'm confident in the bullish sentiment after last weeks Feds statement. I hold an underlying belief that the FED does actually have a decent pulse on the economy that drives the stock market - obviously not the "real" economy but an important one no less. I'm personally very bullish 2024 on nearly all assets. So lets unpack the chart - Daily chat shows a "comfortable" pullback. One very similar to Nov. 2024. Evidence on the RSI suggests we are positioned for months of bullish room to run ahead. So I'm interested in getting long at least back to comfortable new highs. 2 hour chart shows our first aggressive entry hit and the second entry came within .30% of getting filled. Although I would have loved the second to get filled, It's a non-factor. Thankfully price has strongly verified our bullish identification of these price levels and the overall theory. Although the stop of the aggressive was close to the conservative entry - it was separated by several key levels and strategically placed. I've got a good idea of where things are going and the opportunities on the way are endless. The rest is risk management Follow/like for more AMEX:SPY NYSE:ES GETTEX:MES #S&P500 Commentary Best, GrayTrader
CME_MINI:MESM2024Long
by GrayTrader01
ES1! bull vs bear updateBullish count on left, bearish count on right. Lots of gymnastics on the left, but it is still just a series of impulse waves up, with key higher low pivots held. There are different ways to interpret these impulse waves collectively, and the one I have chosen would get one complete impulse wave off low of 4963.50 to happen the quickest. Key price support at 5128.75. On the right, bears are still looking for wave C of Z to finish. It would be quite an extended finish of the corrective structure. Of the two possibilities, I favor the bullish one, for the following reasons: -UVIX broke to lower lows during the bounce off 4963.50, which seems to reliable in terms of predicting additional upside -key Fibonacci resistance levels have been broken -length of time of the correction, which is now longer than the move down from 5333.50
CME_MINI:ES1!
by discobiscuit
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major) Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major) Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher. Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull. Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability. Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets. Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis: Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets. Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets. Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies. Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies. Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation. Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values. Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy: Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises. Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions. Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows. Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
Pre-Market Analysis: May 9th, 2024 $ES & $SPYMarket Observations: The S&P 500 futures NYSE:ES and S&P 500 ETF AMEX:SPY have consolidated with low volume over the past two days. Trading Strategy: Given the current range-bound price action, I am not actively seeking trades around the 5200-5210 level. Instead, I am looking for a breakout from this range accompanied by increased volume to establish a directional trend. Bullish Scenario: A sustained breakout above 5210 suggests a potential rally towards 5240. Entry: Long after a pullback that finds support above 5210. Note: Short positions may be considered if weakness emerges around 5210. Bearish Scenario: A sustained break below 5200 could lead to a decline towards 5180 and potentially 5150. Given the recent buying pressure, this decline would likely be swift. Entry: Short positions may be considered, but with limited size due to the potential for quick reversals. Overall: This analysis provides a framework for potential trading opportunities based on the current market conditions. Like and Retweet if you found this helpful! Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Quick_Edge_Stocks
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 05.05 - 05.10Last Week : Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back towards 5125 - 15.75 VAL. We got good trading back and forth between the Bid and Supply but eventually end of the week once market found no acceptance in lower Value and couldn't stay under the Edge low shorts had to cover driving the price back into previous Value for the Supply which was at and above the Mean. This Week : Few things to note this week, with how strong the Pre Market push was on Friday which drove us over 5125 - 15.75 VAL right into next Key Resistance of 5159.25 - 54.25 we were not able to right away get over or hold over this area in RTH, the end of day push through that area was also weak and left 1 single above us and that is not counting the other sets of singles which are higher so this tells us there is still Supply around this VAH and above Value areas. Of course this doesn't mean we will just sell off from this area but it is something to note if we think market will just continue higher through VAH towards above Edge as this push over 5159.25 - 54.25 can fail and come back in once the distribution over it is finished and we run out of buying. Going into this week we are now in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and from here we watch if we find acceptance here and get more buying which will push us to and through VAH for a chance to head for above Edge ? Do we start building a base here under VAH cleaning out Supply above it and then take it up for distribution over it ? Or do we run out of buying and come back in under 5159.25 - 54.25 to start back filling this move towards VAL to fill out that push from Friday with Supply. Will more size longs step in here to keep buying to push the market higher or will size be waiting to see how this area plays out as we know there could be size sellers here and longs like to buy under Value or after seeing areas get taken out and start holding. To me Weekly TF had a weak close to end the week, Daily closed at the top of Daily Balance with a push just over it and Daily TF is still currently in a downtrend so to speak if we look at VWAP and smaller MA. This kind of hints on not finding acceptance here just yet or least if we do then above Edge still should keep us under the 5200s areas for now. We don't have much data or market moving events this week which hints on even if we don't find acceptance up here and will start a move back down it might not be as fast and strong as we have seen last weeks, it might be more of a leak/hold action back towards the VAL. Levels to Watch : Current Intraday Range 5204.25 - 5154.25 Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75 Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 This is VAH and we would need to start holding between those to find acceptance in this range. 5159.25 - 54.25 Will this now be our Key Support or we find our way back under ? If Accept back under 5159.25 - 54.25 we watch for move back towards VAL Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25 Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 for any continuation under If hold/accept over VAH would need to get through and accept over 5204.25 - 07.50 Edge bottom for any higher prices towards Edge top.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 8th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but increasingly cautious in the overbought market. Consolidation is ongoing, and a deeper pullback is likely before further advances. Maintain disciplined risk management. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5209 (major), 5202, 5188-91 (major) Major Supports: 5143-36 (major), 5067-69 (major), Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5224 (major), 5246 (major), 5265-70 (major) Major Resistances: 5302-06 (major), 5328-30 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Breakout Dip Anticipated: The market is overdue for a healthy pullback after the recent strong surge. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5202 or 5188-91 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retest of the breakout zone at 5143-36 or knife-catches at 5168 for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5246 or 5265-70 for short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Proceed with extreme caution and be ready to cut losses quickly. Remember, shorting against strength in a bull market is inherently risky. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5143-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a healthy dip and a potential continuation higher. Rebase and Bounce: A period of consolidation around 5190-5224 and a rebound off these supports would set the stage for further advances, potentially targeting 5246, then 5265-70. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5188-91 would signal a potential pullback and could lead to a retest of the 5143-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 8th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Asian markets show resilience despite Nikkei 225 drop, influenced by mixed corporate news. U.S. Economic Indicators: U.S. jobs report and Fed's interest rate decisions continue to influence global markets positively. Geopolitical Tensions: Market responses to geopolitical unrest remain muted, highlighting diversified global economies' resilience. Company Earnings and Forecasts: Earnings Performance: Uber reports Q1 loss; Thomson Reuters shows strong revenue growth. Financial Forecasts: Taboola expects significant YoY growth; Thomson Reuters adjusts full-year outlook. Sector-Specific Insights: Technology and financial services sectors demonstrate strong growth potential despite operational losses. Analysts' Perspectives: Setting Market Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings based on economic indicators, trends, and company guidance. Implications for Investors: Earnings reports influence market sentiment and investor confidence, impacting stock prices. Impact on Currency Values: Political Events: Geopolitical tensions historically impact currency fluctuations, yet recent responses remain subdued, reflecting diversified global markets' resilience.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro