Etsy has been in a very nice rising wedge from the March lows. As it reaches the top range of this wedge, it should be a good shorting opportunity. I expect it to fall from its wedge. The eventual target is the origin of the lower channel, or about $30. We also have good bearish divergence on the RSI, on the daily:
In many of my posts, I highlight the rising broadening patterns that have emerged on many of today's popular tech stocks. These of course, once complete, are somewhat devastating to those patterns' underlyings. The price action tends to fall from those broadening patterns with some force. However, significantly more rare in today's highly financialized bubble...
When I have examined the Shanghai Composite in the past, I have used the arithmetic scale, which I most often customarily use and here is what that looks like: Based on that, we see a symmetrical triangle, with what appears to be the beginnings of a great launch in progress. However, given the risks I believe all of the world markets are now facing, I just...
On Friday, I pointed out that SPY was developing a short-term bullish channel. I saw that because the smaller rising wedge I had been tracking from June forward was not dumping properly. However, zooming out a little farther, there is actually a wonderful, much larger rising wedge that has been forming from all the way back in May. I actually really like the...
Prior to Friday's action, the QQQs looked to be forming a very nice double top. However, with Friday's rally, we may instead be looking at some bullish consolidation within a rising broadening pattern. I would like to see classical topping patterns develop on QQQ and SPY, so I will have to be patient. I do not expect any serious upside to last long, if we do go...
Just for a unique perspective, I thought I would look at the SPX per DXY "ratio," a feature which Trading View allows you to easily do. In this chart, the SPX is the numerator, and the DXY is the denominator. The way this works is as follows: if the SPX remains the same but the DXY falls, this ratio, or what you see on the chart will increase, as well as every...
Looking at the four major structures that have formed off of the March lows, the picture looks clear: this game is ending.
My word, trying to let folks know that we might see a pop next week has ruffled some feathers. There is still a possible bearish structure that captures the last month's price action, it's just not as tight as the channel that seemed to serve as temporary support today. There is this wedge, which we could still be within. It's wider than the previous one I had...
Boy, the market is just not ready to sell off yet. The rising wedge that I have been tracking is just no longer a good classical chart pattern to use because the market just has no follow through selling at any time. As an alternative, given today's bear stomp into the close on such high volume, I just have to assume that the market wants to challenge the...
These are the structures I will be watching tonight, the interplay between what looks like a broadening pattern (yellow) and our old friend the rising wedge (orange). I do expect the broadening pattern to resolve to the downside with some urgency; at least that is how they typically play out. For context on the rising wedge, of course, it is the larger structure...
I wish I had done this before Netflix's earnings were released, because I saw a notable bear flag. And it played out. And Intel had a nice head and shoulders forming, and they dropped like a rock too. Don't trade off of this, but let's see if we can predict the market's reaction to AMD's earnings prior to their release. I see a long-term broadening pattern...
This is interesting. I've been working on the precision of the long-term dollar index trend line, because I think it's an important line. So, I finally got a really precise grab by using the magnet feature to go from shadow to shadow in 2014 through 2018 and then auto-extending the line to the right. And wow, we are on that line like a flea's eyelash right...
Just a quick observation: Microsoft looks to have formed a head and shoulders topping pattern.
This has turned into something of an essay, so consider yourself forewarned about its length. It's intended to be a brief lesson about investing in general, and ultimately about "investing" in gold in particular. I'm going to be my contrarian self and take a big dump on everyone's favorite present commodity, glittering gold. First though, I want to present a few...
Just a basic observation on this one: a head and shoulders pattern may be developing here.
I believe that a major market downturn will coincide with a great strengthening of the dollar index. So, it's a good thing to watch. Today, I have redrawn the lower trend line as strictly as I can on the weekly chart (yellow) in an effort to see just how much room it needs to fall for a strike. Furthermore, I have added a horizontal line representing the low...
I often say that I do not begrudge anyone for making short-term plays in an effort to capture some of the bubble we're in right now. That said, my long-term outlook on Tesla remains the same. I had previously identified a rising broadening pattern within a rising broadening pattern on this stock. The two overshoots of the larger broadening pattern were both...
PSX has a nice flag off the March lows, which briefly got it above its long-term trend line from 2015 before immediately giving it back up again. That flag has also now broken into a bearish, downward-sloping channel. And finally, it trades well below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. This is a short.