VictorCobra

Bitcoin - Expecting More Volatility

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin is currently trying to establish support in the mid-$50k region after an all-time high of $69k. What's interesting about the structure is that it shows expanding volatility - there are two broadening patterns enmeshed within each other. Broadening patterns show increasing volatility as time goes on. I think if Bitcoin manages to break out to the upside, we can see a pretty explosive move towards my pink trendline ($80k+). If Bitcoin breaks ABOVE that trendline, we should enter a blow-off phase, and I will look to exit some of my long term crypto positions. On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks the broadening structure to the downside, I expect a test of liquidity in the $46-49k range, and a decline towards the purple trendline. In that case, I may become a buyer again. I added a little to my spot XLM position this past weekend near $0.32.

On a large enough green candle, the daily MACD should flip bullish again. Indicators allow for plenty of upside here. A lot I think depends on spot buying. We really need to see those genuine buyers show up.

Let's see what happens!

This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not financial advice.

-Victor Cobra
Comment: Pretty strong reaction at the $56k level, and another test of the downtrend currently. Because this daily candle looks pretty bullish already, I think it's possible we see $65-69k pretty quickly if the broadening wedge is broken.
Comment: Still really struggling at these two trendlines. Price is really seesawing up and down, which shows a lack of liquidity in this range and indecision from buyers. The broader market outlook is looking fairly gloomy in my opinion (for the medium-long term), so it makes sense that people are hesitant here, and becoming more risk-averse.
Comment: Repeated failure to break the downtrend and back above $58k has resulted in a new local low within the structure. If bitcoin can't bounce hard relatively soon, we can see sub-$50k prices. Need a much stronger reaction from buyers, though it seems we're starting to tap into some liquidity in the low $50k's.
Comment: Look at that! Broadening wedge support hit perfectly.
Comment: Update:

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