captain_smollett
Long

CL1 Oil futures. Final bullish impulse

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
I believe last bullish impulse on USOIL             is about to start next week. My target would be around previous highs from 2015: as minumin it has to close the gap near 56.58

Will start adding longs at 41 with a SL at 39
Comment: Incredible 5% run for oil today and I´m really happy for those who caught it!

Reuters quote Iran´s Minister Bijan Zangeneh who is obviously an incredibly reliable source =) Mr. Zangeneh says that the cartel agreed to cut the production from 33.24 mln barrels a day to 32.5-33 mln barrels.

But still few questions left. First of all, the decision is not immediate, means, OPEC countries do not stop pumping on record levels at least until November. On next formal OPEC meeting in November they will decide on who will cut and for how much. Reports quoted that Iran agreed to join the deal if they will not be oblidged to cut. And the question is: where is the deal then?

Second: Non-OPEC countries are not part of the deal. OPEC will invite these countries to join in case the agreement is formally reached in November. And there we have Russia who has been pumping all-time record 10.5 mln barrels a day. Today´s outcome means Russia can easily pump the record amount of oil from here to summer 2017 as, due to the technical restrictions, Russia will not be able to stop production in winter period without destroying the wells. On another side, Saudi Arabia and Russia are fighting for the asian market while China is becoming the biggest oil importer in the world. Having serious problems with the budget deficit, I don´t think Russia joins any kind of cut deals, specially, if OPEC will respect it.

And last but not least: to be honest, OPEC countries haven´t agreed any different story today. OPEC has production quotas for each country established dozens of years ago. Today´s oversupply situation is partially a result of not respecting the quotas. So, basically, what OPEC pre-agreed today is to review the quotas which nobody respected anyway and adjust them to the all-time record production levels.

This is the fundamental part.

From chart point of view, not many things changed: below, I enclose a chart showing a Gartley pattern which is still valid. They have to close the day candle above 47.72 to invalidate the pattern. Otherwise, target will be 41.30 to complete the Wave E of a triangle.

I also publish a possible bullish forecast in case we have a good daily closing by tomorrow and today´s pop really means a beginning of a bullish rally which should end near 60 Dollars per barrel.
Order cancelled: GArtley pattern below has been invalidated today. Looks like Butterfly option is gaining votes!
Comment: Obviously, we can still achieve the original target but I´m afraid we will not see 41 for a while.

I will post a new chart with the Butterfly pattern and will update this in case we break to the lows again
Comment: Trying to anticipate to the bearish move
Comment: Two possible scenarios:

1: We break and close 49 by Monday-Tuesday. Then, obviously, I will have to find another scenarios for trading as I don´t have in mind any bullush breakout before, at least, a small retrace.
2. Market goes down next week and validates previously published scenarios. Having them in mind we will try to anticipate next moves.
Comment: Oil keeps pushing up.... Some of my shorts closed with losses, some were closed at breakeven. But 51.60 hasn't fallen yet.

Even if it falls, I doubt Oil will bring in a massive bullish run to 65-70. And even if it does, you obviously know where the top is.

Oil at 54-55 is also good short searching for a retrace to 50.
Order cancelled: Following oil on more recent charts
And how would you like a triangle inside a triangle?

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Also, a possible ABCD pattern which may target from 48.01 to 48.90

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I think that there is a high probability that these of us who shorted at 46.50 levels can still close the positions with no loss.
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Bullish view with a possible butterfly pattern at key levels. Please notice price has to close below 48.36 and above 45.55 to keep the pattern valid

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/eWyStaXr/
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captain_smollett PRO captain_smollett
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Bearish view, which I think is still perfectly valid. I personally hold a short position from 46.55 and keeping it for now with a SL at 48.60
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