Anyway, onto the analysis. Much of this is just a re-hash of a Reddit post I made today, but I already went through the work, so why not:
It’s almost as if the bitcoin market and altcoin market aren’t that correlated at the moment. Alts have behaved more like Bitcoin in 2015 (making second bottoms and extending the bear market).
Not much has changed since the video I made the other day. The market tried to move up a bit ( Bitcoin actually moved first), but because alts were not able to break their downtrends on the move, Bitcoin also could not follow through. Let me emphasize - if alts aren't moving up with Bitcoin , I think the market-wide move is unlikely to sustain.
This is without a doubt the most painful part of the market cycle, if we assume long term continued growth for cryptos. Arguably this is STILL part of the bottoming period for the market. Look at the similarities in (circled). There are conflicting views on this obviously, but let's say we're assuming more growth until the trend is broken. So far, alts still seem to be repeating their 2015 bottom. Bitcoin has grown to a point where its recent bottom was much more short lived, surprising many and hammering alt ratios into the ground. Zoomed in: There's possibly a liiiiittle more pain in store for the next two weeks. Or it can, you know, bounce now and hit that pink at a later date.
The good news is, if the long term trend for the whole crypto market is to continue up, the next wave should begin within the next 2 weeks.
When everyone has fallen asleep or has given up, THAT is when it's time to look for massive trading opportunities. My perspective for alts in 2019 has been off, in the sense that I didn't think Bitcoin dominance would get this high, but I did a LOT of analysis when Bitcoin was in the $3K range and everyone had given up, as I mentioned in the first paragraph. Both of those posts called for a potential move to test that BLX , which it has done.
Based on the BLX chart there seems to be a lot of room for Bitcoin to consolidate and move down for many months if it wants to....but there's NOT much room for alts to go down from here to look . This leads me to believe that Bitcoin Dominance is very near a top, or has already topped out for now.
Either way Bitcoin goes, alts will need to bounce within the next two weeks to remain on their trend. That is much steeper than Bitcoin's and represents a growth of about 1 Million percent (10,000X) from trough to peak (2015-2018). So I guess it wouldn't be the end of the world if it didn't hold, although it would be disappointing. By contrast, Bitcoin "only" increased by 12,000% in the last cycle. The trends for the total market cap and the TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap) have not been broken yet, but they could fall...if confidence evaporates from the space. These are the important things to pay attention to right now. And again, I think we should know within the next 14-18 days. It's interesting how that window of Sept 19-23rd could indeed coincide with some major news about U.S. exchanges (particularly Binance US).
If (god forbid) the established alts bounce at the and start a new bull market, I don’t think the people who sold recently will buy back in time. We saw what happened with Bitcoin in April. And alts can move much more violently. I’m talking about Big caps going 30-50% in a day, and small caps going 100-200%. Contrary to most, I also think that if alts make a comeback, it won't be just a few coins. This is due to the fact that the crypto market is heavily influenced by bots, which are designed to maximize the amount of profit, while taking money from day traders.
I find it almost absurd how much control bots have over this market. Because the bots are designed to maximize profits, they will use these long term logarithmic trends to their advantage. It is not a coincidence that the market cap found resistance EXACTLY at the top of that channel, as I suggested it would. Likewise, I'd absolutely expect some sort of movement off these rapidly approaching . This is a painful time to hold right now, because money will just keep getting squeezed out of traders while a downtrend can easily be manufactured. Once the market hits these trends, some bots may reverse their strategies and start playing a strategy. To trade with the bots, one would have sold when the market cap was above $300B and waited for this retrace.
A number of things are really telling me that we might be close to a major in the market. Anything is possible. We could see the entire altcoin market cap go down by another 90%, or we could see several months of altcoin gains while Bitcoin goes down, causing dominance to head all the way back to 30-40%. No one knows. All I'm trying to do is analyze what I see and try to figure out what's going on. That's what I love about this stuff. It's all a mind game to me. Speaking of which, something I'm really looking at is the price action of "dividend" coins like ONG. Why? They should have the largest amount of sellers, since these coins are primarily acquired not by buying, but by holding ONT , NEO, or VET. So, they should have pretty constant sell pressure without demand for their networks. What this means to me, is that IF those dividend coins like ONG start showing signs of bottoming out, it could be an early indicator of a shifting sentiment.
In the above ETH/USD chart, you can see a speculative pathway I've outlined. In orange, a few price points in a major are given, in case it decides to test those levels. Below those supports, there's not much left until a new yearly low is reached. Downside potential is astronomical if ETH breaks down below those areas and the TOTAL2 does not hold its rend. On the right, I market a potential target for the next wave up in the market (close to the all-time high). If I hadn't already maximized my personal allowance for investing, I would be averaging in a bit more right around these levels.
This post is not financial advice. One should understand the risks of investing in highly speculative and volatile assets. Trade at your own peril, and consult a professional financial advisor beforehand. I'm simply here to provide education for some and entertainment for others.