Here's another bearish tech analysis. This one is brief. It's pretty clear what the setup is. Either we have a double top, or we drop from here. Either way, once we drop below the recent low of around 93.67, we will most likely head straight down towards my target at the red "X," between $50 and $57. That's the only support level we have below. What's pretty scary is that if it heads to that target, the log trendline will have been breached, and MSFT can actually continue its decline to the next green support zone. Looks like a pretty obvious bubble here.
The log graph for MSFT looks especially bad, with the log uptrend line lying so close to the current price (currently in the $60 zone). As soon as that purple line breaches, we'll likely be in free fall.
This is not financial advice. I'm just posting these charts to see how accurate (or inaccurate) I am in the coming years. I could be very wrong, and I'm not a professional by any means. This is simply what I'm seeing in the charts. I wanted to do a few for the major tech stocks to see if I can get close to the bearish targets if and when the real bear market starts. People might be wondering why my targets are so low. It's simply that people are not buying tech as zealously anymore. People are satisfied with this current level of innovation, and are finally feeling buyer's exhaustion. If not enough people want to buy, then the price drops. I wrote a more in depth analysis on my DJI chart (linked below)
-Victor Cobra
The log graph for MSFT looks especially bad, with the log uptrend line lying so close to the current price (currently in the $60 zone). As soon as that purple line breaches, we'll likely be in free fall.
This is not financial advice. I'm just posting these charts to see how accurate (or inaccurate) I am in the coming years. I could be very wrong, and I'm not a professional by any means. This is simply what I'm seeing in the charts. I wanted to do a few for the major tech stocks to see if I can get close to the bearish targets if and when the real bear market starts. People might be wondering why my targets are so low. It's simply that people are not buying tech as zealously anymore. People are satisfied with this current level of innovation, and are finally feeling buyer's exhaustion. If not enough people want to buy, then the price drops. I wrote a more in depth analysis on my DJI chart (linked below)
-Victor Cobra
Comment:
Oof, after looking at it a little more closely, it actually seems like that log trend line is actually even closer to the current price than I thought. It's pretty close to the potential breakdown point as well. This should be very concerning for anyone who's still bullish on Microsoft.
Comment:
The log trend breakdown point is near $88, while the linear breakdown and bearish confirmation would be around $93.67, as mentioned above. The fact that these two major breakdown points are so close together makes it really seem likely that we'll have a major drop soon. Whether or not we have a second top first remains to be seen.
Comment:
Looks like we might be about to form that double top. This is why I suggested that it's better to wait for the breakdown below $93 to short. We might actually go up another 10% from here, in this case, before crashing down.
Comment:
We have a potential resistance area in the $110-112 region. We could top out anywhere between here and there. Obviously if we break past the recent high, this idea will be invalidated. Things still do seem over-inflated though.
Comment:
We've now hit the target for my double top idea. Aggressive short entry would be on the breakdown below the pink line (if the hourly head and shoulders validates itself)
Comment:
The ultimate oscillator is hitting a level that has been a sell signal for the last year as well.
Comment:
Will post a new chart soon, once my original idea is confirmed or invalidated.
