Today's selloff had many interrelated factors, of which came together to form what looks to be a hint of conviction, suggesting further price declines to the downside for most major benchmark's in the U.S. Most people who follow my SPX charts assume that every chart represents a new trade, specific in the time and moment. In reality, this isn't true and I use the SPX as a representation--even more so a manifestation-- of risk-appetite here in the U.S. Yes, there is a direct correlation between a market's range tightening, and the subsequent major moves to either the upside or downside. With the Dollar, it has shifted in what it represents. It's sensitivity to risk trends has improved. Looking at Emini futures over the DXY , we can take away it's not the only safe haven in the market. In fact, in more moderate terms--it's responsive in terms of risk-on, risk-off. A break below the 200-day MA for the SPX , can and should be joined by the Dax ( DEU30 ), with currently active shorts posted on my page over the last few weeks.
