Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of Year
TLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond...
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63, but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63, but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack
Comment:
Interesting fall off on TLT, Bond yields increased pushing TLT to lose a semi-important level.
Comment:
TLT's falloff is clearly shown on the market as new highs are hit. I'd like to see TLT lose $148.88 before confirming a bullish market.
SPY sure did make a move!
SPY sure did make a move!
Comment:
Not bullish yet!
Comment:
Started my position in TLT today, won't build more until we bounce toward the $155 level.
I grabbed 4 TLT $155 calls 1/22 @ $29 avg
I grabbed 4 TLT $155 calls 1/22 @ $29 avg
Comment:
Markets seem like they pump into earnings season, watch banks tomorrow at open and next week. The bubble will continue to pump.
Comment:
Started building a strong longer-term hedge this week.
Current positions (looking to build over next 4-6 weeks)
IWM $85 PUT 6/18 @ $23 (50 contracts)
TLT $195 CALL 7/16 @ $55 (20 contracts)
Current positions (looking to build over next 4-6 weeks)
IWM $85 PUT 6/18 @ $23 (50 contracts)
TLT $195 CALL 7/16 @ $55 (20 contracts)
Comment:
UPDATED HEDGE POSITION
IWM $85 PUT 6/18 @ $23 (50 contracts)
TLT $195 CALL 7/16 @ $55 AVG (20 contracts)
TLT $175 CALL 7/16 @ $122 AVG (10 contracts)
EEM $35 PUT 7/16 @ $44 AVG (50 contracts)
SPY $190 PUT 5/21 @ $67 AVG (4 contracts)
IWM $85 PUT 6/18 @ $23 (50 contracts)
TLT $195 CALL 7/16 @ $55 AVG (20 contracts)
TLT $175 CALL 7/16 @ $122 AVG (10 contracts)
EEM $35 PUT 7/16 @ $44 AVG (50 contracts)
SPY $190 PUT 5/21 @ $67 AVG (4 contracts)
Comment:
TLT fell off below $148.9 pre-market today
SPY also set a new all-time high today
SPY also set a new all-time high today
Comment:
Clock work
Clock work
