BRENT CRUDE OIL may drop in price by as much as -65%

Apr 26, 2022

Today we would like to share my opinion on the possible price of Brent Crude Oil in the coming years, analyzing the chart on a monthly timeframe
The war in Ukraine is not just a war between the two countries, it is a geopolitical problem that will affect all world economies.
The world's economies have not yet recovered from the Covid-19, and here is another blow.

Expensive energy will stop buying due to the excessive cost of production of "everything", the purchasing power of the population falls. Declining demand for oil will bring down the price.
The fall in the price of Brent oil -25% in the coming months in the area of ​​$78-80 per barrel will be just the beginning.
But looking at the schedule, is striking the price zone of $36-46 to be a strong mirror level and this is -65% of the current price
Maybe this is a fair price for oil, from where a total restart of the world economy can take place by purchasing cheap energy resources.

Perhaps this is symbolic, but for the first time on the historical price chart of Brent, the zone of $36-46 was established as important when there were powerful geopolitical world changes: 1979-1980 - the Islamic Revolution and 1990-1991 - the collapse of the USSR

Jul 7, 2022

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Dec 7, 2022

Note

The first target of $78-80 has been achieved.
A small rebound upwards is now possible.

But globally, there is a very large space where price can fall.
Hopefully TP 2 will be reached, patience)

Sep 28, 2024

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2.5 years ago we made our forecast for the future oil price.
In short, we wrote:
- Brent is about to start a downward trend from $106 to:
TP1 - $78-80 done
TP2 - $60-62 will be very soon
TP3 - $36-46 will be in mid-2025
This will be a period when some players will disappear from the geopolitical map of the world and others will rise from the ashes.

Jan 22

Note

🛢Back in April 2022, when #Brent was trading around $105–115, we published a bold outlook on Brent #oil prices.

👉 The core idea was simple — the world needs cheap energy:
🔹 to restart global economies
🔹 to ease inflationary pressure
🔹 to reshape geopolitics

📉 Nearly 4 years later, we’ve already seen two major downward waves.
Current prices are 40–50% below the highs, but in our view — this is not the bottom yet.

⚠️ We believe the third and final downside wave may start in the coming weeks.
The long-term target discussed years ago — $36–46 per barrel — remains fully realistic.
And in an extreme scenario, even $19–20 Brent cannot be ruled out.

📊 A historical parallel:
After short crises (1999-2000, 2008–2009, Covid-19), oil rebounded quickly alongside economic recovery.

👉 But the most interesting case is the 1979–1989 slow collapse, when oil fell from $40 to $8–10 — from the Islamic Revolution to the collapse start of the USSR.

🌍 History suggests that deep resets often require deep pain first and destroy of antagonist

Mar 2

Note

refreshed thoughts on the price of Brent OIL