max_andronichuk
Short

Oil sell off down to $38?

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Following on from my last chart, it appears that corrective wedge/triangle has now completed and we are seeing an impulsive selloff.

My initial target was towards $42 a barrel, however given how strong the bears have been in the development of the "waves" we saw in the triangle, I suspect we could now go as low as $38
Any suggestions, I hold long positions in crude should I close now or wait for 61.8% retracement ?
Reply
What sort of contracts? Futures? If you're holding futures I think it wouldn't be a bad idea to buy some puts for insurance purposes. I'm of the view that the sell I'm expecting is counter trend... so long term I would look to be long, which is why I hesitate to just say "sell them".

Ultimately it has to be your decision on what you want to do, but I personally would be inclined now to have stops just under 44.75 following today's action and see if we manage to get a little bounce higher. Given that the bulls appear to be quite weak at the moment, a retracement back to 61.8% is the IDEAL of what I would like to see, but I think there's a higher than 50% chance that it won't happen.

Although please note, I can't legally give you any trading advice, nor should any of this be considered as such. If I was personally holding crude long now I would prefer to buy some put options for cover over the next 3-4 weeks, but failing that I would personally be holding stops just below 44.75 as of today's action.

Best of luck and thanks for your question. :)
Reply
KayJay max_andronichuk
Thank you Max for the advise... :) Keep on posting such wonderful ideas :)
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