My initial target was towards $42 a barrel, however given how strong the bears have been in the development of the "waves" we saw in the triangle, I suspect we could now go as low as $38
Ultimately it has to be your decision on what you want to do, but I personally would be inclined now to have stops just under 44.75 following today's action and see if we manage to get a little bounce higher. Given that the bulls appear to be quite weak at the moment, a retracement back to 61.8% is the IDEAL of what I would like to see, but I think there's a higher than 50% chance that it won't happen.
Although please note, I can't legally give you any trading advice, nor should any of this be considered as such. If I was personally holding crude long now I would prefer to buy some put options for cover over the next 3-4 weeks, but failing that I would personally be holding stops just below 44.75 as of today's action.
Best of luck and thanks for your question. :)