CesaroPelucci

Gold's weekly Bearish triangle

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold has been crushed in the past 2 weeks again and the selling remains strong. It seems that the taper tantrum, stocks sell-off and the dollar are putting gold under extreme pressure. When we look at history, Ben Bernanke announced the FED would start tapering in December 2013 and gold melted from 1800 to 1200 in only 6 months. It looks history is about to repeat itself.

Fundamentals
So what is causing this pressure on gold?
1. Tapering - Gold doesn't like tapering
2. Falling indices - No more paychecks for US citizens to buyback stocks
3. Strengthening of the dollar - Liquidity crunch created by the FED makes the dollar scarce - high demand

Technicals
From a Monthly & Weekly point of view, gold is in a descending triangle with 1680 guarding the flat lower trendline. In the case this breaks, the measured move down is $400 towards 1280-1300. This sounds crazy, but we are trading a crazy market so I would not rule this possibility out.
On the short term, I am expecting a retrace back to the 1775-1785 pricezone (maybe after FOMC on Wednesday). This should be the next interesting sell zone for 1680 and lower.

The inverse H&S is too obvious now as I read so many analysts pointing out to the same; when something gets hyped up, go against them. Next to that, the inverse H&S is already invalidated by last weeks weekly candle and being countered by 2 weekly black crow candles and I expect the third to form this week.

Cheers,

Cesaro