Chart Patterns
Review and plan for 18th September 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
 
Stock picks. 
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post. 
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.  
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
EU sky high live trade and breakdownFollowing an early drop to the 1.1830 zone, EUR/USD now picks up some upside impulse and retest the 1.1860 zone, down marginally for the day. The pair’s knee-jerk comes on the back of a vacillating price action around the US Dollar ahead of the crucial interest rate decision by the Fed later in the European evening
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XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GOLD 
7:00 PM (WAT):
Federal Funds Rate Announcement: The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a change in the federal funds target rate, currently ranging between 4.25% and 4.50%. Market consensus overwhelmingly anticipates a rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the range to 4.00%-4.25%. This would be the first rate reduction in 2025, driven by weakening labor market indicators despite ongoing inflation concerns.
FOMC Economic Projections: Updated economic forecasts from the FOMC, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation outlooks, will be released.
FOMC Statement: The official policy statement explaining the rationale behind the interest rate decision and economic outlook will be published.
7:30 PM (WAT):
FOMC Press Conference: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to discuss the FOMC's decisions, economic conditions, and policy direction, providing additional insights and answering questions.
Context and Expectations:
The rate cut is prompted by signs of a slowing U.S. jobs market and a reassessment of inflation risks amid continued trade uncertainties.
The Fed has maintained rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range since December 2024, amidst political pressure and mixed economic signals.
Markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts this year, with expectations of gradual easing.
This FOMC meeting and its communications will be crucial for understanding the Fed's stance on monetary policy and its implications for markets, inflation, and economic growth.
WATCH 3686 AND 3688 CLOSE OF 15MIN CANDLE above structure.if sellers dont respect the supply zone ,then we look for buy and target 3735-3725 on FOMC DATA REPORT.
#GOLD #XAUUSD 
Ethereum - What's Next?📢 NFX Market Update –  COINBASE:ETHUSD   
Similar to  COINBASE:BTCUSD ,  BINANCE:ETHUSD   faced strong resistance at $4,785 - no surprise, given the historical weight of that zone. Price has since retreated to retest the previous breakout level, which is now likely to act as support if rejection holds.
This zone also aligns with a block order level, previously marked by multiple rejections before the eventual breakout. While I expect support to hold, there is a chance of a deeper test toward the 200-day SMA before continuation.
Overall, the chart structure remains bullish, and fundamentals are also strongly supportive. With key news and macroeconomic data scheduled mid-week, I remain bullish on  COINBASE:ETHUSD  heading forward.
Federal Reserve Time: Rate Cut Decision AheadFederal Reserve Time: Rate Cut Decision Ahead 🕰️📉📈
Chart: 
Today is not just another day — it’s  Federal Reserve Day , and Bitcoin is coiled at a key inflection point. The chart? It’s loud and clear:
We’re sitting directly at the  117,384  resistance — the same major S/R level we've tracked since March 2023. 📍
🎯 If the Fed delivers a  0.25% cut  (which CME odds say is 94% likely):
✅  60% chance of breakout 
🎯 Target:  138,888 
But...
🔥 A surprise  0.50% cut  could mean a  90% breakout probability  and clean push through 118,400.
On the flip side...
⚠️ No rate cut? Expect fireworks — and not the good kind. That sets us up for a potential rejection with  95% chance of downside  toward  100,831 .
💡 My plan is simple and level-based:
 Long above 117,384 
 Short below 117,384 
 We’ve seen this movie before. 2019 rate cuts under Trump triggered brief rallies, but the long-term move was muted. History rhymes — but price action leads. 
Mindset Check 🧘
"Markets thrive on expectation, not news. Most trades are won before the announcement — on the chart, not on the feed."
 One Love, 
 The FXPROFESSOR 💙 
 Disclaimer: Everything shared here is opinion-based and for discussion purposes. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
VWAP Analysis on EURUSD: Anticipating Retracement + Bullish BoS📈 EURUSD has been in a strong bullish trend, showing significant upside expansion. In my view, price is now looking overextended.
📊 When applying the VWAP to the chart, we can see that price is currently trading two deviations above VWAP — a clear sign of stretched conditions. Historically, around midweek, we’ve seen aggressive retracements from similar levels.
🔎 I’m anticipating a potential pullback into my optimal entry zone 🎯. Should this occur, I’ll be closely watching for a bullish break of market structure (BoS) to align with a continuation entry.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly.
WTI: Oil Markets on Edge Despite Trump Considering Major TariffsOil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take hold.
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Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil have sent oil prices surging, as traders fear a global supply crunch if Russian barrels are cut off. 
But here’s the twist: Trump has a history of backing down or delaying tariffs after using them as leverage. When he does, oil prices usually fall, as the immediate risk of supply disruption fades.
If he caves in again by the deadline, which is 10 to 12 days from 4 August, or extends it, oil prices could drop. The bigger picture also appears bearish: OPEC+ is ramping up supply, global demand is slowing and expected to drop in H2, and inventories are rising (first glimpse by EIA, Wed).
 
But with the deadline falling around 14–16 August, 2025, short-term bullish catalysts could spark a rally up to the 38.2%-61.8 % Fibonacci retracement levels, positioning WTI better for declines (conditional on Trump!).
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Bitcoin, Ethereum Breakout: 401(k) funds & the next "Altseason"Bitcoin is up 10% in August, driven by strong ETF inflows and a game-changing executive order allowing 401(k) retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, potentially bringing trillions of dollars into the sector.
Technically, Bitcoin and Ethereum are breaking out toward multi-year highs, with BTC leading and ETH close behind—setting the stage for a possible "altseason" if these levels hold and capital rotates into altcoins.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
GBPUSD at make or break level ahead of a split BOEThe BOE faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. 
With MPC members split between hawkish concerns about stubborn inflation and dovish worries over a weakening job market, expectations are swirling about the path forward. 
Will the BOE signal a pause after this cut, or will inflation surprises force a more cautious, hawkish stance going into the end of the year?
Traders are watching for clues in the updated forecasts, as even a minor shift could spark major volatility in GBP/USD. 
If the BOE sounds hawkish—maybe they raise their inflation forecasts, or the vote split shows strong resistance to further cuts, or they signal a pause in easing—then GBPUSD might have found a bottom for now. 
On the flip side, if the BOE puts more emphasis on economic risks, reduces its GDP outlook, or if the vote split shows a strong push for even bigger cuts, then the pound could come under pressure.
On the charts, Cable is clinging to 1.3375, with a potential developing head and shoulders pattern threatening a deeper move lower if the neckline breaks.
Will the upcoming BOE decision be the make-or-break catalyst for the pound?
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
WTI falls after US slaps 50% tariff on India over Russian oilWTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the market and reinforcing the bearish trend.
Technically, oil has broken below a key Fibonacci support level, signalling a deeper pullback. If prices fall below $62, further downside toward $57 is possible. Upside moves may be short-lived unless there’s a major geopolitical shock, such as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, both the macro environment and technical signals indicate continued pressure on oil prices.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Nvidia plummets ~3% afterhours! Buy the dip or sell the rally?Nvidia delivered another strong quarter, beating expectations on both revenue and EPS. However, shares dropped after hours to around $175, as data centre revenue narrowly missed forecasts and China sales remained absent due to regulatory uncertainty.
Technically, if NVDA breaks below $175, bears may target the $170 double bottom support in a dead-cat-bounce fashion, with a risk of further downside if that level fails. However, if the stock holds above $179 and reclaims $185, bulls could see a rally toward $193 and potentially $220 in the medium term, which could still materialise after a short-term decline toward $170.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
USDJPY Deat Cat Bounce at play after Jackson Hole remarks?In this video, we analyse the sharp move in the USDJPY following crucial speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate hike, highlighting ongoing weakness in the US labour market. Meanwhile, Ueda emphasised Japan's strong job market, supported by immigrant labour, which is driving wage growth and sustaining inflationary pressures.
Ueda’s Hawkish Stance:
Ueda maintained a hawkish tone, noting that wage hikes in larger Japanese companies are now spreading to smaller firms, strengthening expectations for continued inflation. This commentary increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike, giving the yen additional support.
Market Reaction:
Prior to the Symposium, traders were positioned for a potential rate cut by year-end. However, after Ueda’s remarks, futures market pricing suggests the odds of an October rate cut are now evenly split at 50-50.
Technicals:
Open triangle completion may trigger further downside after the post-JHS drop. Current rally to the upside could be a relief rally, part of a potential Dead Cat Bounce (DCB).
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Pound plummets below 1.34 amid UK gilt turmoil! What's next?The Pound is under heavy pressure, trading around 1.3382 after falling below the critical 1.3400 mark. The trend is bearish, with price action contained in a downward channel and repeated failures to break key resistance levels.
 Fundamental Drivers 
 UK Gilt Yields : 30-year yields have surged to their highest since 1998, raising concerns about the sustainability of UK public finances.
 Political Uncertainty : A recent cabinet reshuffle by the Prime Minister has heightened fiscal fears, with risks of tax hikes or spending cuts.
 Inflation & BoE Policy : Persistent inflation and the Bank of England’s reluctance to cut rates undermine confidence in the Pound.
 US Dollar Strength : The Dollar is strong, especially ahead of the US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, adding further pressure on GBP.
 Bearish Scenario (Primary Outlook) 
 Outlook : Continuation of the downtrend within the downward channel.
 Entry Conditions :
Rejection at 1.3390–1.3400 resistance zone
 Risk Management : Move stop to breakeven after Target 1
 Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Opportunity)
 Outlook : Short-term corrective bounce possible if key resistance is broken.
 Entry Conditions: 
Strong break above 1.3400 with volume
Retest of 1.3390 as support
RSI shows bullish divergence or breaks above 50
 Risk Management : Take partial profits at each target, trail stops higher
 Important Notes 
Expect volatility around the NFP release and from ongoing UK political developments.
Fibonacci levels around 1.3330–1.3300 provide strong support confluence.
The failed inverse head & shoulders pattern favours the bearish case.
The 1.3389–1.3390 zone is critical for both bullish and bearish setups.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.






















