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DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of these currencies versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold), and financial markets. It is calculated as a geometric mean of the exchange rates weighted by each currency's significance in U.S. trade. #DXY In essence, the DXY is a crucial tool to assess how the U.S. dollar is performing against its major trade partners’ currencies, helping market participants make informed decisions in foreign exchange and broader financial markets.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
EUR/USD: The Last Bear Standing...As indicated on my previous EUR/USD idea ( that's still currently open ), I remain short EUR/USD given the technical aspect of things are still valid. Divergences are still in play along with a rising broadening pattern and the fact that we're trading at the yearly R3 level ( which is rare ). I suspect we will have some volatility with the ECB press conference tomorrow, so that should get things moving hopefully in the bearish direction. If we begin trading aggressively above 1.1800+, that will invalidate the short idea overall. If we roll over, I'm still looking for 1.13000 - 1.12000 as the target range for Q3 going into Q4. We'll see how this all develops. As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe!
Short
by InternalTraderNYC
8
Bitcoin - The cycle is just starting!⚔️Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) just created new highs: 🔎Analysis summary: Bitcoin is currently - especially with the new all time high breakout - just perfectly following previous cycle behavior. Since there is no real resistance above current price, apart from psychological levels, I do expect a substantial rally back to the upper channel resistance trendline. 📝Levels to watch: $300.000 🙏🏻#LONGTERMVISION Philip - Swing Trader
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
27
07/29/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +734 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Been struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish✅ — 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal✅ — 9:36 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ❌ — 11:49 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal✅ — 11:59 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal❌ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News — 1:30 PM 🇺🇸🇨🇳 *CHINA SAYS IT AGREES WITH US TO EXTEND TARIFF TRUCE What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
3
Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel. Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude. FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
Trading breakouts in summer: Japan’s index pushes higherSummer breakouts are tricky with low market participation, but Japan’s stock index just cleared a major level. Whether it’s a rectangle or inverse head and shoulders, the breakout looks valid. We explore how to manage risk, trim stop losses, and aim for a solid reward ratio. Will this push continue? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:JPN225Long
by ThinkMarkets
DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers . Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session. Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments. Relationship & Market Synopsis DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty. Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar. Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum. Summary: Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub