Bearish Butterfly on AUD/CAD (4H): Full Trade Plan & AnalysisAUD/CAD 4H — My Bearish Butterfly Breakdown
Quick summary
I found a completed Bearish Butterfly on the AUD/CAD 4‑hour chart at point D. I’m looking to short this with a low‑timeframe entry, strict stop above D, and staged profit targets based on the chart’s fib and support levels.
Why I’m shorting
The pattern geometry (XA → AB → BC → CD) completes as a classic Butterfly with D in a strong resistance/supply area.
D lines up with key Fibonacci extensions and prior structure — multiple signals = higher probability of a reversal.
Price extended into value area after a rally; I expect a corrective pullback from here.
How I’ll enter
Wait for price to reach the D zone (~0.915–0.916).
Drop to 15–60m and take a precise entry on rejection: bearish engulfing, wick rejection, or failed break and close back under D.
Entry: on confirmed low‑TF rejection in the D zone.
Stop and targets (use platform precision)
Stop: above the D / recent high — roughly above 0.9199 (give buffer per your volatility).
TP1: 0.90875 (~60 pips) — take partial profit.
TP2: 0.90450 (~108 pips).
TP3: 0.90105 (~140 pips).
TP4: 0.89760 (~176 pips) — let remaining position run if momentum holds.
Risk & trade management
Size the position so the stop equals my preset % risk.
After TP1, move stop to breakeven + small buffer and scale out at further TPs.
If price closes convincingly above D on 4H, I’ll exit — pattern invalidated.
Final note (what I’d do right now)
Be patient — We don’t chase. We’ll wait for the D completion, confirm on a low timeframe, pull the trigger with a controlled size, lock partial profits early, and let the rest run toward deeper fib support. Check economic events for AUD/CAD before entering
