Debtcrisis

Tokenization and US Treasuries. Forecast 2027–2035 Hello, gentlemen ⚫️ | comrades 🔴 | colleagues 🔵 After a prolonged silence and at the end of the year, I return, as usual, to dissect the markets and publish new ideas on my favorite platform, TradingView. Before you is an updated forecast for long-term US bonds targeting the pivotal year 2027 and a strategic horizon stretching up to 2030–2035. To keep your brain from boiling over, the material is structurally divided into three logical blocks: 1️⃣ Infographics 2️⃣ Breakdown of the US10Y chart

ETH 1W: Five-Year Triangle, Macro Crisis, Then the Money Printer ETH has spent five years coiling inside a symmetrical triangle. Lower highs off the 2021 top, higher lows on a support line that goes back to the 2018 bear market. Price is bouncing off that support again near 2,500. The outlook: Reclaim 3,700, break the descending trendline, and run at the prior highs near 5,000. Macro crisis. A hard flush back to retest the broken triangle around 3,500. Policy response. Higher lows as liquidity returns. M2 goes parabolic around 2030 and ETH reprices toward 1

by botkiller3000

The Quantum Divergence: Decoding the Data: DXY, EUR, USD, Yields Introduction As Above, So Below We stand at a critical historical crossroads where the traditional "Safe Haven" status of the US Dollar is undergoing a structural decay. The "Old Code"—which relied on US hegemony and debt-fueled growth—is fracturing in real-time. What we are witnessing on the charts is merely the shadow of a much larger macro-global shift: the transition from US Monetary Dominance to Global Fiscal Realignment. To the untrai

by brianrarmbruster

Bitcoin's Climb to $250K: Fib Clusters and Halving Mathematics This investment strategy spotlights an ambitious yet plausible pathway for Bitcoin to reach $250K - a staggering 733% rise from its current standing at $30K . The core elements are Fibonacci clustering and halving mathematics . By taking a grounded, data-driven approach, we aim to obtain comprehensive insights into Bitcoin's potential for substantial growth. The space between all boxes is (0.618) percent.

More Rate Hikes on the Menu CBOT: Micro 30-Year Treasury Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement in principle late Saturday to raise the nation’s debt limit and cut federal spending, ending a rollercoaster round of negotiations. The current national debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion. The tentative deal would raise it by $4 trillion through the end of 2024. In return, it would cap annual discretionary spending for two years, keeping non-defense spending levels flat. F

by JimHuangChicago

US30 POSITIVE - DEBT CEILING OUTCOME Overall on Indics we have seen price range, investor and banks are waiting to hear what the USA will do on the debt ceiling crisis. As we have previously seen that with positive news on the debt ceiling the markets will rise, and with negative news on the debt ceiling markets will drop ( potentially 45% based off analysts at JP Morgan) If we get positive news on the debt ceiling I am seeing this potential swing trade happen - also an inverse H&S on the daily timeframe. If news is negative then

by jaimehucrypto

The Debt Ceiling The debt ceiling in the US is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to hold a direct meeting on Monday following a weekend of intermittent negotiations regarding the nation's debt ceiling. This meeting takes place just days before the government faces a critical "hard deadline" where it risks running out of funds to meet its financial obligations. The possibility of a government defa

Artificial Banks Wane: Bitcoin Ushers in Financial Epoch This chart shows a view of the top 8 banks in the United States and the charts go back to at least 2008 so you may see how artificial the bubble is. As the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hikes, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the banking sector. This trading strategy anticipates potential instabilities in major banks, which could catalyze a significant migration towards decentralized finance solutions such as Bitcoin. Higher rates could strain over-leveraged banks, leading to a

Why are investors turning their attention to mid-cap stocks?This will be the 2 questions we will be discussing today 1. So, what is happening on this divergence and its implication? 2. And who is leading who? a. Large cap leading the mid-to-small cap market? Or b. The mid-to-small cap leading the large cap market? The answer: The mid-to-small cap is leading the large cap market and why is it so? If recession hits, hypothetically mid-to-small cap stocks employing the majority of the work force or employees in United States will be th

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Navigating The American Debt Ceiling Drama Some people create their own storms. And then get upset when it starts to rain. US Debt Ceiling drama is akin to a soap opera that never ends. Debt ceiling issue is not new. Why bother now? Political polarisation in the US has got to unprecedented levels. The showmanship could tip over into a political nightmare. It could send economic shockwaves with impact deeply felt both within US and well beyond its shores. Many politicians seemingly are so pulled away from reality that their fantasies ar

by mintdotfinance

Preparing for the Worst: Trading Ahead of a US Debt Default "It is impossible to predict with certainty the exact date when Treasury will be unable to pay the government's bills," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a letter to Congress. Although Yellen noted a tentative date of June 1 as the due date to help spur lawmakers into action. While it is highly unlikely that the US will default on its debt, this doesn’t mean that the traders won’t make plans to deal with a default or get jittery. Two likely markets that will have to deal with the moves f

by BlackBull Markets

5 Things to Watch in the Next 2 Weeks CME: E-Mini S&P 500 Put Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Important data releases in the coming weeks would shed light on the health of the US economy and could have significant impacts on global financial markets. We will focus on a number of critical datasets, mainly the following, in the upcoming weeks: • Federal tax revenue (Tax filing deadline: April 18) • Existing home sales (April 20) • Personal income and outlay (April 28) • Fed rate hike, or the lack of it (May 3) • Gasoline price trend (befo

by JimHuangChicago

Debt Ceiling and Its Effect on the Market and Bitcoin.The debt ceiling is a legal limit set by the U.S. government on the total amount of national debt that can be outstanding at any given time. When the government reaches this limit, it must either raise the debt ceiling or default on its debt. The debt ceiling is often a contentious issue, with some arguing that it should be raised to allow the government to borrow more money, while others argue that it should be lowered to reduce government spending. The effect of the debt ceiling on the market

Game Theory and the US Debt Crisis Showdown E-Mini S&P ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ), 10-Year Note ( CBOT:ZN1! ) True or False? • US Government has never defaulted on its debt obligations. • US Treasury bonds have always maintained AAA credit ratings. A history lesson: In June 1812, 30 years after the Revolutionary War, the U.S. declared war against Britain and Spain. In August 1814, British troops burned Washington, D.C. With the Treasury building destroyed, Uncle Sam was unable to service its debts for months. Extraordinary

by JimHuangChicago

Current vs Future debt payments as percent of income There appears to be a 2-3 year delay between the current debt rates (US) and actually debt payment increases. It seems very likely that debt payments as a percent of tax receipts will go up to 28% similar to 2019 and 2020. What happens after that. It seems unlikely to me that GDP will continue to feed increases in federal tax receipts. 30% and above is next.

Gold having 2013 flashback. Recession or Debt limit first ?Hello guys. Here is my 2 cents theory on why the gold acting so weird lately. Please give some other comments as well.

by NoRiskNoFerrari1469

TLT dangerously close to 2008 support NASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options: 1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder. 2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is "serious" on fighting inflation. 3) Take the foot off the accelerator and step back into the market. Using macro environment as an excuse

Daily Crypto Market Update - All about the FOMC!In this video: * We discuss Fed potentialities and future actions * What will the Fed do to tackle debt? * What will the Fed do to tackle inflation? * How this will influence market sentiments? * How the Fed will alleviate fears? * How this spills over into the crypto space and influences sentiment here.

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Income, debt and the story of a greedy ruling class This chart here shows Personal income, PCE, Corporate profits and Consumer credit securitized and outstanding. Here is your wealth gap. The urge for MOAR profit will be our undoing In my humble opinion.

by FEEVRWarningSystem

The Inflation Monster & The Crisis Event Indicator How does this affect you? It's a MUCH bigger problem than you realize. The International/1% Wealth Class receives their Money long before it "trickles down" to you, the worker/consumer. This means they get the benefits of the full value of the Dollar long before inflation eats it away, however, you receive the same dollars much later after inflation has already taken a large portion of it's value. As prices continue to rise, your Gross Income (before taxes) cannot keep up with this constantly i

If everyone keen upside - What can go wrong?At present, everyone looks at only one country and this is the USA. But the time will come and suddenly everyone will pay attention to the new Babylon again. And it is not somewhere, but right in the center of Europe. The name of this association is the European Union. The creation of the European Union was first discussed in the early 1950s, when six countries announced the need to unite in order to preserve peace, social stability, economic and political union, create a single internal marke

Dalio's 1929/2020 perspective Tend to agree with Dalio's view on long-term debt cycle ending now. Here's $DJI during great depression and now. The world is much faster and I don't think will see a 3 year 90% decline but if we WILL need to reinvent the economy machine, the drop should be significant and bear market severe. Keeping my bias neutral for now.

EURUSD Short Swing Plan Euro is in manipulation prolly due to the global condition at the moment by this pandemic. Trillions and billions of moolah been printed out from global center banks are just an rotten news at this point and everyone is racing against to combat the virus and protecting their own plunging economy. System has already cracked and no idea how long it might be going this way. Debt rising eventually in all nations but could help escalate back the economy for some strong nations who are good at credit

Pressure on pound intensifies & apocalypse Despite the Christmas holidays and general calm in the forex market, the pound is dropping. Going below 1.30 is a very bad sign, but given the importance of the level zone 1.2950-1.3000, there is a serious risk of a full-fledged downward to 1.20. If the markets continue to believe in the impossibility of signing a trade agreement between the EU and the UK until the end of 2020, then exactly 1.20 is the mark to which the pound will be lead. Our position on the pound is unchanged: a critical reas