The most expected news came from Osaka where Trump was meeting with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping and with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Here are the main results of G-20: 1. Russia agreed to prolong the agreement with OPEC. By the way – on Monday and on Tuesday OPEC countries are meeting in Austria. Economists are sure that the oil production cut...
1D TF shows us a strong downtrend that initiated on March 26th of this year. And we see a morning star on June 20th that started a local correction up. 4HTF – The price is still currently slightly above the 9EMA. Approaching simultaneously the 200EMA, 23.6 Fibo Correction level and our local trend line. Here we have to consider 2 possible scenarios : 1. ...
Today , United States is going to publish the 1Q GDP – currently the forecast is the same as the previous fact at 3.1%. If the forecast is above expectations that will be good for the currency and a lower than expected reading can be bearish for the USD. At the same time Initial jobless claims will be announced , currently the forecast is showing an increase of...
1D TF - we can observe a downtrend that initiated in October of 2018 and we can see an uptrend from the end of March of this year. On June 18th the bulls made an attempt to break the 61.8 Fibo Correction from 2018 to the upside and failed. 4H TF – shows that the price has broken the 23.6 Fibo correction level down, we also see a head and shoulders...
Daily TF shows us a strong, global Bearish Trend that started at the end of September 2018. Local bearish trend line starting from December 11, 2018. Looking at the chart for today, shows us a somewhat Tweezer Top rejection of higher prices with an incomplete bearish engulfing candle to the downside, all following 4 days of growth. 4HTF – also shows a sign...
RBA Governor Lowe spoke earlier and here are the key points of his speech : • It is legitimate to ask how effective monetary easing would be globally • If everyone is easing, the effect on exchange rates is offset The questions that Philip Lowe mentioned are quite important. We could say that Lowe hit the nail on the head. Here are the world banks’ interest...
4HTF - Parabolic SAR has reversed. The price is trying to break the 9EMA up as well. Core retail sales for Canada were released today at a lower than expected rate of 0.1% vs the forecasted 0.6% (Bearish for CAD). In the short term, a BUY position may be favorable, with possible targets at 1.32175 (23.6 Fibo correction) followed by 1.32585 (38.2 Fibo) .
CANADA Canada’s annual inflation rate rose unexpectedly to a seven-month high in May. On Wednesday June 18th Consumer price index came out at 2.1% YoY vs the expected 1.2%. Statistics Canada said the annual rate hit 2.4% on increased prices for vegetables and durable goods. This is the first time since October 2018 that the annual rate had exceeded the Bank of...
Today’s main focus on the economic calendar is the FOMC statement by Fed Chairman Powell. Reporters will surely pressure him for details as to the possibility of a rate cut later this year. Earlier this month Powell stated that the economy is growing but due to trade tensions the Central bank will “act as appropriate to sustain expansion, and while he never used...
Yesterday’s technical analysis gave us a mixed and interesting picture . A break below May lows (price range of 1.2559) would signify a further movement down, and we saw this break yesterday. Technically : INDICATORS MACD lines have intersected and parabolic SAR has reversed. Further movement down and SHORT positions are now looking favorable with...
The British pound is struggling to recover after Friday's upbeat US retail sales figures. Consumption growth for May exceeded expectations and this data also came in after considerable upward revision for April. The pair has been on a downslide since the beginning of May. While Brexit politics and the race for the new prime minister is still likely to have the...
Technical Analysis After reaching a new low on June 5th at the price area of 5.655, we watched the trend reverse on June 6th breaking the 23.6 Fibo correction up, yesterday the pair broke the 38.2 Fibo correction up and the price is currently travelling up to the 50% correction level. Looking at our indicators, we see that Williams % R confirms that the price...
Fundamentally: All eyes on new prime minister Election in the United Kingdom . Boris Johnson is the most likely candidate to succeed Theresa May. NO-deal Brexit will place the British pound under pressure and cause uncertainty. T echnical Analysis: Weekly TF - shows us the price is testing local support trend line (Dec. 2018 – Jun. 2019) with a...
Job openings for April was released at the level +7 449M , which is worse than the previous fact +7 474M. The United States labor market is in a tight spot. Looking at the latest release of Nonfarm payrolls for May, which came out at 75K, compared to the forecasted 185K and the previous fact 224K. This means that there is no other possible way for the US...
British national GDP was released at the level -0.4% (MoM) or +1.3% (YoY) . Manufacturing has declined to 3.9%, that had the strongest impact on the fact. Production was released at -2.7%. Trade balance in April was released at -12.11 B, which is slightly better than the forecast (-13.10B) but we still see the deficit. On Tuesday economists are expecting the...
Hey everyone, it's been a long time since I've done a market video. Checking in on the markets and the setup we've got heading into next week
This week everybody is expecting the Japanese national GDP . The forecast is +0,5% QoQ or +2,1% YoY. Let’s try to understand if the forecast is realistic or not. GDP could be counted by summarizing consumption, trade balance, investments and governmental spending. Looking at Japanese retail sales (consumption) YoY for the 1-st quarter you may see that it is...
ADP Nonfarm in the US was released on Wednesday at a very low level. In fact, this is the lowest levels of NFP from ADP since 2010. The biggest fall is in the construction field (-36 000). Challenger job cuts in May was released at 58.6K (the previous fact for April was 40K). According to ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment for May was better...