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Recession

Economic Tipping Point...GFC 2.0? In this video we discuss; Bond Market Signal using the 2 year yield. Is the 2 year yield giving us a 2007 / 2008 signal? We look at the correlation of the 2 year yield vs SPX We analyze the forward expectation of interest rate projections. Observe and dissect last weeks economic employment data. There will be plenty of opportunities in this next phase of the market cycle. I will be looking very forward to the plethora of trade alerts I will be issuing.
TVC:US02YLong
by Trading-Capital
How to Manage Recession and Inflation?Can a recession and inflation coexist? We saw that in the 30s great depression and 70s great inflation. Today's jobs numbers is trending lower, indicating a possible recession, while (3) inflation numbers are ticking up. When these 2 conditions occur simultaneously, it is known as stagflation. The 70s great inflation and today’s situation is very similar; we will study them. And discuss how to manage stagflation. Micro Silver Futures Ticker: SIL Minimum fluctuation: 0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:SI1!Long
by konhow
GameStop ($GME) Collapse ImminentNYSE:GME showing signs of major technical distress. This whole meme thing had to end somewhere. At the end of the day, that was easy money for anyone looking to make a quick buck. Just ask yourself, if you controlled tens of millions of shares at 25X their average historical trading range, why would you hold that? And that's exactly what has been going on for the last several years. The weird thing is that it lasted so long and seemed to have a dedicated following. After all, a movie was made about the whole phenomenon (I never saw the movie). This thing likely goes very quickly on the break.
NYSE:GMEShort
by ChiefMacro
29
NYSE - Short | Disaster ImminentStocks continue to struggle, as economic reality rapidly sets in. Of all the indexes, the NYA (NYSE) is the most telling, in my view. To that end, I really don't have much to say, other than this is a beautiful bearish formation, with the economic backdrop to support a short-thesis. Bank losses are beyond anything this world has ever seen, credit defaults are skyrocketing (and holding new highs), bankruptcies have surpassed covid levels, crypto fraud is completely out of control, and wars are raging on 3 continents. The only question now is how deep will it go and how quickly will / to what extent will the federal government intervene? Expect a couple years of deterioration to the downside. Good luck and godspeed!
TVC:NYAShort
by ChiefMacro
2
How many bag holders will BTC leave behind?We've had our fun and some fake pumping from the short squeeze. No comes the real stuff! What are the fundamentals and what problem is BTC trying to solve? Ok, crickets. It's a speculative asset, that's it. If history repeats itself, which it typically does, we will see a major pull back and anyone who's bought at the top will have a negative performing portfolio. It's too expensive and you still can't buy a banana with BTC and there are plenty of middlemen involved, which goes 100% against it's original purpose (after the financial crisis). If you're up, this would be a good time to sell IMHO and buy at the next support level, which is way below 100k.
Short
by antonini2002
BITCOIN 2025 - THE LAST HOPECRYPTOCAP:BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure. The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to date
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
2
US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by Sand33pTrades
USOIL CAUTION! BREAK - TEST - GO!This is my new updated chart of Oil. Trump's "Drill baby Drill" interfering with the free market is the absolute worst thing he could do. His ridiculous tariffs will put us in an economic depression! Oil prices are driven by demand! As I have mentioned here on TV so many times before! Increasing supply while heading into a recession is the dumbest thing possible! You never want to consume your own oil when you can consume others first! Simultaneously, F your own nation's oil company's profit margins and gov tax revenue! This is why we shouldn't put toddlers as POTUS! Anyway!!! This is a break test go! setup! If you haven't seen it before, here is an example I recently posted with AAPL. Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets too. ))
TVC:USOILShort
by RealMacro
2
US500 - Will the stock market go up?!The index is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for the next Nasdaq buying positions with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The channel breakdown and the index entering the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position. The chief economist at Citigroup has stated that the imposition of tariffs in the United States constitutes a stagflationary shock to the economy. According to his estimates, there is a 40% to 45% chance of a recession. It is expected that GDP will increase in the second quarter, as consumers rush to make purchases ahead of the new tariffs. However, the most significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth is projected to unfold in the second half of the year. You may have noticed that recent economic statistics are no longer moving markets. The reason is simple: markets are forward-looking and trade on expectations rather than past data. Economic figures reflect what has already occurred, while market pricing focuses on what lies ahead. At this stage, current data has yet to fully reflect the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Even if weaker numbers emerge, markets may have already priced in the potential resolution of the trade war and an eventual recovery. Experienced traders understand that today’s developments are already factored into prices. What matters now is the outlook for the coming months—the real driver of market direction. Ryan Petersen of Flexport noted yesterday that, three weeks after the U.S.imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, bookings for ocean freight containers have dropped more than 60% industry-wide. He explained that the U.S. imports around $600 billion worth of goods annually from China, with those items valued at approximately $2 trillion at the retail level. He stated that the first ships carrying goods fully subject to the new tariffs arrived on Monday, and shipping volumes are expected to decline in the coming weeks. However, due to high inventory levels, the impact on the retail sector may be delayed. Petersen also expressed concern that a potential rollback of tariffs could introduce a new set of challenges. With ships currently being repositioned globally, a sudden wave of new orders could disrupt logistics networks—especially if markets perceive the suspension of tariffs as only temporary. In my view, no one really knows how this situation will evolve, as a large portion of imports consists of intermediate goods and components used in final products. My guess is that this could lead to a surge in transshipment and even smuggling, though it could just as easily echo the unexpected consequences seen during the COVID era. We are truly venturing into uncharted territory. Petersen concludes: “This is a strange era for global logistics, as we must simultaneously prepare for the unimaginable—like full U.S. self-sufficiency—while also planning for a return to something closer to normal trade relations.”
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
WILL THE S&P 500 COME CRASHING DOWN? TRIPLE RSI DIVERGENCE?!S&P 500 (SPX) Is considered to be one of the primary benchmarks for the U.S economy. Recently it appears to be showing a triple bearish RSI divergence, DMI indicating bearish with ADX above 20, and a bearish MACD on the 1 Month chart. The technical analysis seems to have a highly bearish hypothesis in my opinion. If we give some thought to Ray Dalio's Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order , some haunting indicators appear to be forming. Could this just be a minor correction? Or is this the beginning of an extended economic downturn? Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks. This is the part where they tell you: -Don't panic -Stocks are cheap forward EPS -Nible on the way down -Diversified portfolio wins.. -It's a stock picker's market -There is a lot of cash on the sidelines -It's just a reset -It's a correction -We needed this to shake out the weak hands -Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours -There is a lot of value in... -This is your last chance to... -This and that stock are going to $1,000 -Stocks are the best investment over the course of time The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world. I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis. All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK! WARNING!!! Click like, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RealMacro
38
OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast While Increasing SupplyOil prices are feeling bearish pressure. OPEC was unable to increase production significantly last year to stabilize prices. High interest rates have kept global economies cool enough. However, starting in May, OPEC will begin unwinding its voluntary production cuts. The timing of this decision is questionable. Tariffs are expected to hit global economies hard, while the Fed is likely to hold rates steady for a few more months. Recession risks in the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China are rising. OPEC has acknowledged this trend by lowering its oil demand forecast for 2025 and 2026 by nearly 10%. If summarized: Oil demand is expected to fall 10%, possibly more if the U.S. and/or China enter recession. Trump is expected to boost U.S. drilling, increasing supply. OPEC will start to unwind supply cuts, increasing supply. Brent is likely to remain under bearish pressure throughout the year because of rising supply and falling demand. As long as the current fundamental outlook remains unchanged, upward moves should be viewed as selling opportunities. A downtrend channel has formed since mid-2023, with the lower boundary recently tested. There is now an upward reaction. If this continues toward the 68.25–70.70 zone—previously a demand zone, now a potential supply zone—traders may look for short entry setups, provided this zone holds, with nearby stop-loss levels.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by ftdsystem