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Recession

Gold/Copper Signaling Recession & Market Super bubble!We're continuing to see extreme signals from Gold, and that should raise concerns. Earlier, I highlighted the Gold/Oil ratio — now, I want to draw your attention to the Gold/Copper ratio: 🔗 Historically, such extreme readings in the Gold/Copper ratio have consistently preceded recessions. The only exception? A period of economic stagnation and sideways markets — not exactly a bullish outcome. See the chart from 2014 to 2016 🔗 www.tradingview.com Quick recap: Gold = Fear + Inflation hedge Copper = Economic strength + Inflation signal Oil = Similar to Copper; reflects growth and inflation expectations These divergences aren't random — they’re warning signs of a recession & market Super Bubble that's about to POP! These are not random fluctuations of prices. You can choose to view them as such. I get it. But from a macroeconomic perspective, this is bad JUJU! Capitalism without failure is like religion without hell! Remember that! Click boost, like, and subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers! ))
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RealMacro
4
AUD/USD Longer term OutlookHey Guys, This is a follow up the the Short Term outlook I posted to show you the bigger picture of what happening. If you haven't checked out that short term thesis I suggest you do to understand why i think in the near term why there will be a decline possibly down to .50. As I'm sure most people are aware there is abit of fear on the longer term of the debasement of the USD, as we have massive debts and deficits which are highly unlikely to get any better soon. This is ultimately lead to its decline relative to other assets think current rise in GOLD. If we have a recession from slower growth from tariffs, regional banks and private credit going bad and the consumer becoming too squeezed then this budget with get much worse as they will try and stimulate the economy to ease some of these pressure. But as a consequence this will lead to inflation and more debasement just like the 60s - 80s period. Each time they try and rein in inflation growth will slow so they will simulate resulting in the cycle continuing. Now if the "debasement" continues this doesn't mean the USD will die get replace but it does mean other assets and currencies that aren't having this systemic problem will rise relative to the dollar again just like the 1960s-1980s. Australia has had long running fiscal conservative budgets and most definitely no debasing its currency. Our debt to Nominal GDP peak during covid and unlike most other economies has decreased since. Although we are projected to runn a deficit of A$10 billion our growth will more then out weigh this and this is such a small fraction to out A$1.752 trillion economy is a non factor really. looking at some technicals on the charts we can see we have been in a falling wedge since the last "debasement" of the USD happened after the GFC. This will breakout sometime over the next two years as its running out of room. we have gaining strength on the RSI creating a divergence on the monthly also point to a breakout to the upside. we have clear outlined targets to hit on the way up and looking back again at previous debasement events by 2011 we were at $1.10 and by the 1975 we were at $1.49 so a return to these levels isn't without precedence. I have shown with the green line the general direction of where i think it will be please dont take that as an exact model. This will take years to fully play out but if you understand even the most basic supply and demand , technical analyst and fundamental problem America is facing then it should keep you true. Please check out the shorter outlook to gain a full picture and do you own research here are some links to data used www.ceicdata.com data.worldbank.org
Long
by jackwheeler
USD/AUD Short Term OutlookHey guys, This is a thesis I've had for quite some time but seems to be unfolding of late. With the talks and worries about the regional banks in America and the private credit companies loan books not looking good as the consumer is being squeezed from tariffs, higher interest rates, unemployment slowly ticking up and student debts having to be paid back again after credit growth soared after covid i feel we could see a recession hit the US sometime over the next year. I doubt it will be a collapse anything like 2008 or anything but even a slow down on growth and a pull back on spending could lead to big declines from these AI bubble fueled highs as P/E have risen way out of hand. Something like the 2000s seems more accurate to current conditions. IF this thesis is right you will see marked declines in the AUD against the USD and i have laid out my first target of .60 as it fits the technical pattern and we have a confluence of support there. We have also recently rejected off the resistance lines, broken the rising wedge (RED Lines), slipped back under the 100SMA. This provides a great enter point with a tight stop loss and a clear take profit. I will be posting my future outlook for the AUD so please check it out to get the bigger picture Also do your own research
Short
by jackwheeler
Warning Signs Flashing: SPY May Plunge After Earnings SeasonAfter the recent rollercoaster in equities and crypto, markets are entering a critical period: earnings season. While the initial rebound after last Friday’s selloff has restored some optimism, the broader picture suggests potential downside for SPY in the weeks ahead. Earnings Season: A Stress Test for Stocks The third-quarter earnings season kicks off with major banks and tech companies reporting this week. Expectations are high: analysts project around 8% EPS growth for S&P 500 constituents. However, several factors indicate that this season could reveal underlying weaknesses: High expectations and valuation pressure – Companies that fail to meet earnings or guidance could see outsized declines, creating ripple effects across the index. Sectoral stress – Technology, finance, and industrials are exposed to higher input costs, slowing consumer demand, and margin compression. Misses in these sectors often drive SPY lower more than average. Macro headwinds – High interest rates, slowing GDP growth, and trade tensions with China could exacerbate negative reactions. Historically, SPY tends to be vulnerable after earnings seasons that reveal cracks in corporate performance, especially when macro uncertainty is elevated. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Pressures Trade tensions: The U.S.-China conflict over rare earth metals and tariffs adds uncertainty to corporate supply chains. Even if earnings beat expectations, investor sentiment can remain fragile. Recession risk: Economists from J.P. Morgan and S&P Global highlight a 30–40% chance of a U.S. recession by year-end 2025. Weak economic indicators can amplify post-earnings selloffs. Volatility spikes: The VIX has started creeping higher after last week’s recovery, signaling that investors are hedging against downside risks. Historically, spikes in VIX correlate with short-term SPY declines. Conclusion: Post-Earnings Risk for SPY Traders and investors should watch for: Missed earnings or cautious guidance from major banks and tech companies. Rising VIX and fear-driven flows into protective options. Breaks of critical technical support levels in SPY. In this environment, positioning for a modest correction or increased volatility in SPY could be prudent until the earnings season clears and market sentiment stabilizes.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
Gold/Oil Signaling Market Is In A Super Bubble Gold = Fear Oil = how strong the economy is. Except for COVID we have never seen such an extreme reading. Yet people are buying up stocks like we will never again be able to produce another stock again as long as we live! Tulips! Here are just a few of the factors to consider that make this indicator important. Why This Indicator Matters: Key Factors at a Glance Gold’s Surge Signals a Shift Gold has soared nearly 60% year-to-date, adding a staggering $10 trillion in market capitalization. This rally effectively erases all the stock market gains made since May 2021, including those driven by AI enthusiasm and speculative tech runs. USD Can Only Be Measured Against Gold As the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar’s real value is best gauged in terms of gold. This is a critical point—because when gold rises this dramatically, it reflects monetary inflation. A large part of the stock market rally has been driven by an expanding money supply, not true value creation. Curiously, this inflation hasn’t shown up in oil prices, which have collapsed, despite geopolitical risks. More on that below. The Dollar’s Worst Year in Decades 2025 marks one of the most significant declines for the U.S. dollar in recent history. Its role as the world reserve currency (WRC) has diminished—from 85% in the 1970s to just 50% today. Trade wars and tariffs are only accelerating this trend. Monetary Inflation Drives Stock Prices Stock markets are being lifted by monetary inflation, not organic growth. Stocks can be created endlessly—unlike gold. That makes gold a true inflation benchmark. The stock market’s rise is, in large part, a mirage, reflecting debased currency, not real productivity. Oil Isn’t Behaving as Expected—Why? Typically, when the dollar weakens, oil prices rise—because more dollars are needed to buy the same barrel of oil. But right now, oil prices are soft. Why? Global demand is weak, outpaced by supply. Even the Russia-Ukraine war hasn’t changed that dynamic. In fact, Russia is now importing gasoline, as Ukrainian forces continue to target and disable refining capacity. Here’s why this matters: when oil wells are opened, they can't just be turned off. If the refiners are destroyed and the oil has nowhere to go—it’s wasted. That’s a strategic win for Ukraine. The Disconnect Between Stock Prices and Profits While inflation has pushed stock prices higher, it hasn’t translated into equivalent profit growth. Example: If a stock goes from $10 to $20 due to inflation, you'd expect earnings to go from $1 to $2 to maintain the same P/E ratio. Instead, the earnings yield is just 3.2%—a historical low. That’s a major red flag. As pilots would say: WTF, over? Here’s the likely explanation: The money hasn’t reached consumers—it's concentrated in the hands of wealthy savers and leveraged investors, who are buying more stocks to sell to the next buyer willing to lever up even more. It’s a classic feedback loop—and a superbubble reminiscent of the tulip mania era. The Smart Money Knows What's Coming As this imbalance grows more obvious, central banks and institutional investors are quietly increasing their gold holdings—well above the pace of supply growth. So when Gold/Oil (two important commodities) completely disconnect like this, and Gold explodes up like this, you'd better take notice! Lastly, it takes 100 ounces to buy a new home. Last time this occurred was in 1978 ish, 2011, and now! Debt to GDP in 76 was 33%, 2011 was 99% and today 126% It is not the same animal as the past. GTFO & STFO! No matter where the prices for stocks go! CAUTION!!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RealMacro
77
XPO Short - Economy is WeakLooking for XPO to pull back significantly. There is only so much demand a given economy can generate, over the course of a given cycle. While we have been in a recession (in earnest) since early 2023, the stock market is just now figuring out that demand is increasingly absent and inflation has been the primary driver of all price growth for about 3.5 years now. I expect at least a 50% selloff, with the possibility that this market can go much much lower. Moreover, while indexes continue to make new highs, the real economy is completely detached (hence the XPO chart). Good luck and God bless!
NYSE:XPOShort
by ChiefMacro
2
Farmers Have Been Losing Money for Years Grain is planted in the Spring and harvested in Autumn. As shown farmers have been losing money for the past several years, buying grain in the spring and selling at a loss. The entire ag industry is (was) propped up by land inflation, driven by the fantasy of "Yellowstone" cosplay. Well, this sort of thing can only go on for so long before we run out of buyers. Best of luck to all the John Duttons out there. "Soft Commodities" showing you are underwater.
AMEX:CORNShort
by ChiefMacro
Economic Tipping Point...GFC 2.0? In this video we discuss; Bond Market Signal using the 2 year yield. Is the 2 year yield giving us a 2007 / 2008 signal? We look at the correlation of the 2 year yield vs SPX We analyze the forward expectation of interest rate projections. Observe and dissect last weeks economic employment data. There will be plenty of opportunities in this next phase of the market cycle. I will be looking very forward to the plethora of trade alerts I will be issuing.
TVC:US02YLong
by Trading-Capital
How to Manage Recession and Inflation?Can a recession and inflation coexist? We saw that in the 30s great depression and 70s great inflation. Today's jobs numbers is trending lower, indicating a possible recession, while (3) inflation numbers are ticking up. When these 2 conditions occur simultaneously, it is known as stagflation. The 70s great inflation and today’s situation is very similar; we will study them. And discuss how to manage stagflation. Micro Silver Futures Ticker: SIL Minimum fluctuation: 0.005 per troy ounce = $5.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:SI1!Long
by konhow
GameStop ($GME) Collapse ImminentNYSE:GME showing signs of major technical distress. This whole meme thing had to end somewhere. At the end of the day, that was easy money for anyone looking to make a quick buck. Just ask yourself, if you controlled tens of millions of shares at 25X their average historical trading range, why would you hold that? And that's exactly what has been going on for the last several years. The weird thing is that it lasted so long and seemed to have a dedicated following. After all, a movie was made about the whole phenomenon (I never saw the movie). This thing likely goes very quickly on the break.
NYSE:GMEShort
by ChiefMacro
35
NYSE - Short | Disaster ImminentStocks continue to struggle, as economic reality rapidly sets in. Of all the indexes, the NYA (NYSE) is the most telling, in my view. To that end, I really don't have much to say, other than this is a beautiful bearish formation, with the economic backdrop to support a short-thesis. Bank losses are beyond anything this world has ever seen, credit defaults are skyrocketing (and holding new highs), bankruptcies have surpassed covid levels, crypto fraud is completely out of control, and wars are raging on 3 continents. The only question now is how deep will it go and how quickly will / to what extent will the federal government intervene? Expect a couple years of deterioration to the downside. Good luck and godspeed!
TVC:NYAShort
by ChiefMacro
2
How many bag holders will BTC leave behind?We've had our fun and some fake pumping from the short squeeze. No comes the real stuff! What are the fundamentals and what problem is BTC trying to solve? Ok, crickets. It's a speculative asset, that's it. If history repeats itself, which it typically does, we will see a major pull back and anyone who's bought at the top will have a negative performing portfolio. It's too expensive and you still can't buy a banana with BTC and there are plenty of middlemen involved, which goes 100% against it's original purpose (after the financial crisis). If you're up, this would be a good time to sell IMHO and buy at the next support level, which is way below 100k.
Short
by antonini2002
BITCOIN 2025 - THE LAST HOPECRYPTOCAP:BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure. The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to date
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
2
US Unemployment Rising: How Is This NOT a Recession?The U.S. unemployment numbers are steadily climbing, as indicated by recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Typically, significant rises in unemployment correlate directly with recessions, which are shaded gray in historical data charts. Currently, unemployment has reached over 7 million, significantly higher than recent lows. Historically, every similar increase has coincided with or preceded an official recession declaration. Yet, mainstream economic narratives have avoided labeling this a recession. What does this data tell us, and is the market accurately pricing in the risk? Are we already in a recession, or is this time different? Share your thoughts below. Let's discuss the disconnect between the unemployment reality and official recession narratives.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Teqnkka
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA -After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium) -Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce -If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone -Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle) If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week. **Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
TVC:US10YShort
by Sand33pTrades