Right, I have articulated previously on how I feel fundamentally about S&P500 earnings growth and think the anti-trade rhetoric is not going away till Nov mid-terms. ES1! is trading at the top of a mini-wedge tucked within a medium term wedge. Drawing on my Dr Suess instincts to try to explain this: Wedge 1 is mini wedge which I believe is a continuation...
What does the last 2 troughs in the TYA channel has in common with the current? Equity markets were at all-time-high. SPX CY'18 is expected to deliver +26% eps growth this year thanks to the tax cuts and budget deficits. Next year, it is expected to deliver something closer to norm, 10% growth. That is if the Trump's FART bill (google it, not kidding, there is...
Short on strength/horizontal resistance ... . Metrics: Max Profit on Setup: $208/contract Max Loss on Setup: $489/contract Break Even: 122.08 vs. 122.11 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 489/700 = 69.9% Notes: This assumes that this level (122) sticks around or is available at NY open. Ideal profit would be ~20% of what you put it on for (.20 x 4.89 =...
I don't believe I need to explain candlestick patterns here, but I don't often visit the monthly chart and believe this could be easily missed by many. I can count on one hand the number of times I see a monthly hammer in the last 15 years. It's 4 for 4 so far.
This week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... . CPB: Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that...
TLT looks to drop with its inverted C n H. Positioned Short
... for a 4.83/contract debit. Fading the treasuries move higher ... again. Here are the metrics: Max Loss On Setup: $483 Max Profit On Setup: $217 Break Even on Setup: 121.17 Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 69% Theta: .32 Delta: -42.26 Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max. Ordinarily, I like to do these skip month (e.g., Aug/Oct) to give me an...
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A poor reaction to a hawkish Fed ended the overbought period at 2 days. The S&P 500 is now poised for a pullback. A Fed Buzzkill Ends Ambitions for An Overbought Market drduru.com $SPY $QQQ #VIX #T2108 #AT40 $ITB $LEN $AAPL $TLT $DXY #forex
This is a very simple but powerful roadmap of what to expect. Looks to be a big move coming to the upside this year.
It's a new try to apply harmonic patterns to treasure bond ETF. While recently people are discussing the yields, which is wildly convinced that it led to the Gold's slump yesterday. With this harmonic patterns combination in TLT, and it gave a daily hammer yesterday, it's quite a nice long trade with patterns and reversal sign combination. It worth noticing, not...
Chart is in Log. Tried to hold myself accountable to not take any liberties with adjusting trendlines ever so slightly to make it appear 'more' bearish. Trendlines are lows and highs absolutely. I like the simplicity here. Just two trendlines.
Every hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit...
Thank you to all my followers that take the time to read this with me. Some historical background on the importance of the 10 year Treasury Note Yield Index. (Hey, we all need to brush up on it from time to time) This is a ratio chart of SPY/TNX with a 9 year trend. As is the case with most charts related to interest rates, it's pretty technically perfect....
Long overdue. Waiting for neckline break then longing $TBT.
TLT is ready to fall very soon and we should see this around 100 by end of year unelss we have an unforseen event occur.
I am expecting a pop here before the major drop. Short term bullish reveral in play
TLT is setting up perfetly and by the looks of it, we will be ready to go short by the end of the month