Yield spreads tighten and also invert leading into a recession and it is only once they start to de-invert that any sizable decline begins once all the durations have been squeezed and there is nowhere else to run/hide for market participants. The 10Y-03M curve is of particular interest compared to 10Y-02Y, which almost always leads to a crash once that cuts above...
A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve
Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.
The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive...
The U.S. interest rate debate changed dramatically in August 2023.
The economic debate shifted gears with diminishing concerns about a recession, leading U.S. long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply. And the debate over future Federal Reserve policy transitioned from trying to call the peak in short-term rates to discussing the length of time rates might...
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the closely correlated USD/JPY pair can be determinants or signals of market risk. With both breaking their three decade long trends, you have to wonder is a major secular shift upon us.
The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries.
The pair shows how many yen are required to buy...
Seeing a weekly momentum shift forming, expect major trend change.
Couple of scenarios, Economy could break and fed allows inflation to creep up while easing on rates, If they reduce reverse repo rates then yields will drop as money market funds buy 1 yr bills on the open market again.
Otherwise they might have to increase rates if inflation continues to weigh...
On this 4H Chart TMF has rallied in the past week about 9% as the reports of the impetus of
inflation has diminished. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines are staying above the histogram
which has not converted from negative to positive. The dual time frame RSI showing
low 1 hour TF in blue and daily TF in black has the lower crossing over the higher both
Some people create their own storms. And then get upset when it starts to rain. US Debt Ceiling drama is akin to a soap opera that never ends.
Debt ceiling issue is not new. Why bother now? Political polarisation in the US has got to unprecedented levels. The showmanship could tip over into a political nightmare. It could send economic shockwaves with impact...
Good afternoon and good evening dear traders!
At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS...
Good morning dear traders!
I'm sharing with you one of my trades for today as I usually do.
I managed to share with you the TREASURY BONDS one, as you can see on the chart the price broke the channel for the fist time as a fake breakout, the 2nd time it did the same thing but it managed to come back down ad give us the confirmation to sell, my customers and I got...
Good afternoon and good evening traders!
I'm sharing with you a recap of my trade for today, actually we caught the 1st up trend after breaking the support line with a quite high volume, then after having the highest volume of the day on the candle I put the 2nd arrow at we added another position to finish the trade on the market with 2 contracts and a respectful...
CBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! )
Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists.
What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the...
The Fed funds rate is higher than the 30 year treasury interest rate.
The last time that happened was in 2000 and 2008.
What happened back then was that the stock market and the 2 year treasury interest rate both dropped significantly.
Will history repeat itself?
U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE
Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972
Blue line: interest rates (USINT)
Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N)
Green Line: oil (scale on the left)
(A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD,
(1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019
(2) it is followed by a spike in oil...
looking at short term bonds over the next 3-4yrs and take the monthly dividend. From the 4th Elliott wave to the 5th, then I'll likely convert over to the 20yr treasury in 2years to try to buy the D leg of the cypher pattern on the 20yr. see charts. In this chart, notice how the price action retrace back to the 3rd wave, this movement was a very big bearish cypher...
Treasuries accelerating their decline today free falling from already historic oversold conditions on multiple time-frames.
Feels pretty broken to me, but that doesn't mean we can't break further.
On watch for a true dislocation/break down/panic on further weakness.