10 year yield is dropping with a quickness to match only stock sell-offs. Might be a good time to look at some REITS? Rates look to me like they will decline for the next 2-3 years. Yields hit .382 fib support today and bounced very slightly higher. News of the end of the Gov shut down could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to .236 level...
US10Y has just broken out of the downtrend and the inverted Head and Shoulders. Cheers!
Increased spread between Germany 10-year bond yield vs Japan 10-year yield could indicate a slide in the Euro against the Yen. Even though the yield is higher for European bund, the risk appetite is declining, while the global economy is projected to have a slow growth rate through out 2019. This means that investors seek safe heaven assets like the Yen and JP10...
Another idea of an ETF to hold this year. About 10% upside potential plus a 12 months trailing yield of 6.68%.
CBOT:UD1! The UD1! is on up trend and explains where all the stock market money has gone the past week...lol. I think I understand yield curve, but missed this one. ; )
Top black line is the major resistance line. If yields break this, the US is majorly fucked and signals an end to "cheap money" at a time with debts and unfunded liabilities at all time highs. Yellow line is the support line of the 37+ year channel going back to the early 1980s. Red line is the more recent resistance line which began in June 2007 at the eve of...
An inverted yield curve means a market situation in which the yields offered, for longer maturities, are lower than the yields of the short-term portion of the curve (in this case the "short" is usually considered as the rates up to 2 years). This is a situation that is at first sight counter-intuitive. Those who have studied Finance will certainly remember the...
We made new lows with the spread today. German and GBP 10 Year Futures major gaps. $TLT $IEF $SPY $GLD $DXY
Amazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line). Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.
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Not much arbitrage play for Financiers with this yield, which one of the many reasons I am short Banks. Ichimoku not showing any signs of relent.
Looking at the 10yr treasury as a gauge for the overall rate environment and the revised GDP data, I'm predicting the US will see rates rise for roughly the next year before coming to a peak around 3.75% on the 10yr before beginning a new wave lower, just in time for the coming recession in the summer of 2019. Expect to see 30 year fixed US Mortgage rates above...
Corporate high yield spread is approaching a breakout. Idea - long ITE, short JNK or similar
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Looking at forward indicators against the SPY including Copper price, SOX semi-conductor ETF, ADR and Yield curve.
Yield curve inversions preceded recessions and stock market declines (by 3-22 months). fred.stlouisfed.org
If yield curve inverts in 2019, there are four likely outcomes.