If the Yield curve Inverts this Year, 2020, it might signal further rate cuts by the FED despite Powell's reluctance to enter the NIRP and ZIRP realm and contrary to the forward guidance. TIME WILL TELL -Surecapital
Despite a big end-of-year rally in both oil and energy stocks, the energy sector remains attractively valued at the end of 2019. In fact, energy is the *only* sector that's attractively valued right now. XLE has a reasonable P/E of 15, a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, and a dividend yield at 3.7%. That's a solid return on capital, handily beating the 2.32% yield on...
LQD just bucked a very important trend line. If investors have indeed lost confidence in corporate debt and we see follow through, then I see this as a bearish signal for stocks too. Typically the bond market is known to be correct over the equity market as large institutions with more knowledge than retail traders deal with bonds directly. To see corporate bonds...
We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve...
Short $TLT, my last 15min setup was full of crap but this gotta be working. Long live equity!
Each time the Yield Curve (DGS10-DGS2) un-inverts; the stock market crashes and we have a "Crisis". Keeping my eyes on it.
Before start reading on; this chart is inverted. More on that later Interpretation According to Mike Maloney, the S&P 500 dividend yield curve is the second best way to measure a stocks value (after the Shiller S&P500 PE Ratio -made a post on this, go check it out). The ratio indicates how much a company pays out in dividends each year relative to its share...
How to easily understand the yield curve inversion. I also show you a method to plot the difference between the bond yields.
VTR is real estate investment trust (REIT). The technicals are great (check chart). Market analysis: Generally after an inversion in a yield curve , the following sectors tend to outperform the market: XLU (Utilities) XLRE (Real Estate) XLP (Consumer Staples) The following tend to underperform : XLK (Technology) XL (Industrials) XLB (Materials)
Looks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend...
Looks like a big reversal is in store after volume peaks out at resistance and Year Camarilla R4. $TLT $IEF $VXX $SPY $GLD $SLV $GDX $EURUSD $ZB_F $ZN_F
Hello Everyone! I hope you have had a great journey of investment so far! Maybe we are at a critical moment turning around. This indicator shows the Treasury Yield Spread with its default spread of 10 Year minus 3 Month. You can also specify 10 Year minus 2 Year in the settings. The indicator 'Wasabi Tool: Treasury Yield Spread below' can be applied to DOW...
In this screencast I show two charts where crashes could happen. I focus on Wall Street which - affects markets globally including forex markets. On the weekly time frame US Oil is beginning to struggle at a 61.8% Fib retracement. Wall Street is possibly struggling at an important structure level. A whole lot depends on China. But dig deeper. See the CSI300...
This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt. The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt. Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values. It is important to note that official US gold reserves have...
I like this name because of its massive dividend yield. This isn't uncommon in REITs, but TWO carries one of the larger yields in the industry. Their financial statements are healthy and the primary risk here is the state of interest rates in the US. My harmonic analysis shows two sin waves: a red and a pink. The red represents a macro trend wave and until the FED...
Technically a bullish yield scenario is building up. The implications are interesting for Stocks and FX both. - Selling US bonds -> weakening effect on USD - Yields climbing up -> risk-on sentiment, equities up - Yields climbing up -> markets reevaluate Fed message and start to reprice rate hike -> USD supportive Contradictory messages are visible from the bond...
US Yields are likely going to follow the same path as Japanese Yields have taken over the past few decades. In this update i discuss why I believe this to be, and I also break down the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to try and how this will play out.