NIFTY: Exaustion, Exit and Exact!We warned well in advance, did place in no uncertain terms.
The fall sharper, steeper. More so it comes after huge build-up of expectations and confidence. This percolates to the short covering of FII shorts and 1000-point NIFTYBANK rally.
All that looks like some time back in history.
The last half hour of rush to rise, from 22430-22550 stems from the fact, 1. Expiry, 2. The zone of bulls and bears to slug it out.
With tomorrow the exit polls, Monday the action day, or will the market wait for Tuesday as the gap between exit and exact polls is just one trading day. This was not the case in the previous polls where we had three trading days to respond and recoup.
Clearly the bulls on back foot, the bears waiting for the final punch. The range of last five months is under test. Two scenarios one can visualise.
1. The first is sharp fall, below the lower bound and then the sharp rise back to where we are or even higher might even print ATH.
2. The first is rise, to the top and then the fall below the line.
For the long-term health, the fall and rise are far more enduring than a rise and fall.
We have in the weekly dark cloud pattern, today the last trading day, a close above 22630 is needed to avoid this. In the smaller graph, we printed evening star, so rise is halt around 22630 supports around 22430 that marks the day's range.
Support 22430-22380-22350
Supply 22530-22580-22630