S&P 500-is that it?US stock index futures had a positive start yesterday morning. But they fell back sharply soon after the main exchanges opened. Much of the blame has been levelled at Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel, and on the fears of reprisals from the latter escalating hostilities further. But investors have had a growing sense of unease since the beginning of April. To begin with, investors welcomed the pull-backs as rare opportunities to add to long-side exposure. But some of the daily sell-offs we’ve now seen are large enough to rattle confidence. So far this month, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have had four days with losses of over 1%. The mid-cap domestically-focused Russell 2000 has had six such days. This rather undermines the argument that everything is ok with the stock market because of the breadth of the rally since October. In fact, while the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ have spent the last four months hitting a succession of record highs (until this month), the Russell has failed to get much closer than 12% below its own record from back in November 2021. Adding to recent worries is the break-up of the ‘Magnificent Seven’, those tech giants which were at the forefront of the market’s advance for so long. Not only has Tesla seen its own ejection from the group due to its dismal performance (it’s down 36% since the beginning of this year alone), but Apple has lost 14% since its all-time high back in December, and NVIDIA has fallen 12% over the last six weeks. On the plus side, the other four members are all within easy reach of their own recent highs, and given the spectacular gains we’ve seen in many of these stocks, a pull-back is well overdue. The question is whether this is a healthy one, or if it is the start of something more serious? We know that looser monetary policy is coming, but we don’t know when. Stronger economic reports, like yesterday’s Retail Sales, make it less likely that the Fed will be hurried into cutting rates. The next challenge is the earnings season, and today brought a clutch of important reports. Chart wise, we’ve already seen the major indices break below some significant levels and the momentum is definitely to the downside. But if the indices can find a floor over the next day or two, some confidence could return and a recovery is possible. Even so, caution is required now, more than ever.by TylerNorcross0
Finishing Off a Leading DiagonalThis is a rough estimate projection of what I'm expecting in the coming weeks for the market. I'll post a more detailed analysis once wave 4 is confirmed. Here is the summary (this is not an EWT analysis, so you;ll have to take my word on it for this count - rather, its a rough forecast for what to expect that uses an EWC to simplify my pivot references): - Expecting current bounce off the last weeks low to continue slightly higher until around 4/9-4/10 (next Tues-Wed). Should reverse around 5239-5282. - After that we will get one more pullback that will last through the end of next week (i.e. more downside through 4/12). This pullback will most likely form a higher low around 5163, but it could make one more lower low: as long as it does not extend below 5112 the ending diagonal structure will still be valid. ** The above will complete wave 4 of the ending diagonal, what will follow is a final wave to new highs by the end of April 2024 (wave 5 of the ending diag). My target range for the final 5 of larger degree C of larger degree (5) is 5300-5400.. That will be the top (this will be a major top!!, meaning that shareholders should be distributing here, not buying more). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How I'm playing this (not financial advice): - Waiting until confirmation of wave 4 of ending diagonal to enter SPY May expiry, 520.00 calls - I'll sell half at SPY 530 and unload the remaining if it makes it to 535 by end of Apr. - After I exit long I will load the boat with puts 3-5 months out because the downside will be gruesome. Key points: - don't short yet - be patient to enter long - this is a "heads up," wait for my more detailed post once I get confimation #Pigs git slaaughteredby JerryMandersUpdated 232390
Three waves of correction! But how many percent of this wave?Esteemed analysts and traders, I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules. As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy. I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision. For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea. My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace. I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques. May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours, Mr. Nobody Shortby mehdi47abbasi798
S&P 500’s Confluent Pullback ZoneWith the S&P pulling back from highs, let's explore where prices might find support. Retreat and Rebound: Analysing S&P 500's Pullback Opportunities It’s finally happened: the S&P 500 has started to retreat after a strong upward trend. Between late October and early November, the US headline index surged by 28%, marking a significant uptrend. However, concerns about persistent inflation have led markets to reconsider expectations for rate cuts. Additionally, Iran’s military strike on Israel has raised fears of a larger conflict, potentially disrupting energy supplies in the region. These factors have collectively slowed the S&P's ascent. After forming a small triple top pattern at the beginning of the month, prices have begun to pull back. Pullbacks are normal in uptrends and can present opportunities to re-enter the market at better risk/reward levels. By analysing various technical indicators, we can identify a confluent pullback zone on the S&P's daily candle chart, offering an estimate of where the pullback might find support. In the chart below, we observe confluence among three key technical indicators: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: Reflects a significant Fibonacci level from the October-April rally. 100-Day Simple Moving Average: A widely monitored moving average. VWAP Anchored to October lows: Represents the volume-weighted average price of investors who bought before the rally. If prices reach the confluent pullback zone, traders may watch for bullish reversal patterns such as a double bottom, bullish engulfing pattern, or large bullish hammer candle to time their re-entry into the market. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. by Capitalcom2
Target hit for SP500My short plan for Sp500 worked out perfectly. I shared my view some days ago and adding shorts while it was going up paid out. Actually i closed all my shorts and i am looking to enter long. I think that a pullback is on the wayLongby CryptoForexGem5
SPX500 , Support levels Correction As you see, market finally has entered to a correction wave. Nobody knows when it will be finished but there are some support levels on it's way. First support is about 5000 and second one about 4800-4820 . I'm looking for finishing correction to get new buying positions.Shortby pardis4
Invasion of Kuwait 1991 vs. Iran 2024Buildup prior to the invasion was a steady week of lower prices in January, until 17 Jan 1991 when coalition forces took control of skies over Baghdad and destroyed Iraqi air and ground forces. Overlay is Jan 1991. 17 Jan was the night invasion. 18 Jan the market took a moon shot. Once it became apparent that our guys were winning, bulls took over and the rise after the event was double the decline. The buying spree the day after the night bombing of Baghdad was phenomenal... a moon rocket. Be real careful shorting now. Soon it will become apparent the nutjobs cannot win these conflicts. Relief rally may reach new ATH at 5360+ within a few weeks. Everyone wants puts, all are short, VIX is jumping... that's not a good time to get short. Bottom of this shakeout sometime this week imo.Longby DaddySawbucksUpdated 3314
Trader Thoughts – defence the play of the day The markets have come alive with the sound of derisking, deleveraging, hedging and broad managing of risk exposures. Friday was about managing risk going into the weekend, but today was different and the move could have legs - where for many playing defence has been the order of the day, while we have also seen traders getting aggressive, with shorting activity in equity picking up, notably in Tesla. On a cross-asset basis, there has been migration to buy equity volatility (the VIX sits at 19.2%), while there has been a further move into the USD, CHF, and gold, although the flight to quality was not broad-based with US 10-year Treasuries +10bp. While US bond yields were already moving higher into the US retail sales report (+0.7% vs 0.4% eyed), the stronger outcome of the data set off a further sell-off in US Treasuries, with US 10-year yields pushing into 4.66%. The equity market was initially fine with the rise in yields, but as headlines rolled in that Israel had vowed a new response the sellers gained full control – it was when S&P500 futures traded through Friday’s low (5150) and then the 50-day MA (5142) that the floors lit up with more indiscriminate selling in equity. The moves were then compounded by a rush to hedge risk, with funds buying volatility, where noticeable we saw the VIX index trade through 18% and into 19.46%. On the day 1.31m VIX call options traded vs 573k puts, so traders have been positioning for higher volatility and hedging portfolios accordingly. It’s no surprise that we’ve seen a sizeable 149k VIX futures traded, again well above average – higher market volatility leads to a whole range of selling activity from systematic players, and pension funds who target levels of volatility to determine their equity allocation. In these uncertain times high volatility begets higher volatility. We’ve been left with the S&P500 tracking its highest high-low trading range since March 2023 (119 points), with price closing near the lows of the day. Plenty for the day traders to work with, and this sort of price action, with the various indices seeing a strong high-to-low trend day, will not have gone unnoticed, and to many, these are ideal trading conditions. Momentum monitor – markets on the move We see higher FX volatility playing through, with the USD ripping vs all currencies. There has been a solid unwind of carry positions, with the higher-yielding plays – BRL, COP, CLP, and ZAR – all seeing big percentage changes. The USD is king, and while overbought it is not at a stage where mean reversion players are just yet seeing a higher probability of a snapback. There are too many tailwinds for the greenback right now – haven appeal, momentum, relative interest rate settings and relative economic data trends. Pullbacks, it seems, will be shallow and well-supported. Gold has been the classic geopolitical hedge, although we could have seen an even more pronounced move and a possible upside break of $2400 if crude (+0.2%) had participated. The fact that XAUUSD rallied 1.7% despite the move in the USD, and the 5bp rise in US 10YR real rates cements gold as perhaps the primary portfolio hedge given unfolding news flow. Conversely, there is a risk that gold could find a solid sell-down should Israel refrain from escalating, but for many the headlines suggest an increase in conflict is more likely than not and gold can offer defense in the portfolio. Asia faces another tough day at the office, with the JPN225 called -1.4%, HK50 cash -1.2% and the ASX200 -0.7%. There is certainly not much in the news flow to inspire risk-taking and there is a growing list of factors to refrain from buying and to manage exposures, which of course, can see the buy side of the order book dry up, which means we get more exaggerated price moves. China gets focus, not just because it performed admirably yesterday and we watch to see if the index can outperform, but also, we get Q1 GDP (consensus +4.8%), industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Shortby Pepperstone6
When good trendlines go badSo, the channel finally breaks and we head lower to support. Will update the idea tomorrow with targets etc.Uby Herenya4
Market update FX, Indices, BTC - missed shorts = opportunityHello Everyone, Doom & gloom? Not quite. Although i missed some good shorts across the board i am going to be patient and let the price dictate what happens next and what should i do. Sometimes you miss trades, in hindsight, it seemed easy to take a short but it was a 50/50 gamble and i am okay with missing out some trades. I always follow my plan and i think some USD selling will happen soon unless market has other plans and ofc there are black swan events such as another war. That will fuel up oil prices and most likely inflation with it. So keep an eye on potential conflicts. In terms of US CPI i have to admit that i was caught by surprise when everything looked super bullish on the charts. The flush on Tuesday seemed like someone leaked the data and apparently that was the case as it was discovered that the bureau of labor statistics gave a heads up to "super users" way too early. I really thought it might've been a de risking event. Have a great day and hope you enjoyed the update! 15:48by teambacktotrade0
SPX morning updateMy bearish count has SPX topping out today somewhere below 5186.69, with one more daily lower-low (this week) to complete a contracting leading diagonal (1).by discobiscuit1
spx priced in gold + dxyIf #SPX priced in #Gold can't break to the upside... Then watch out for a new #USDollar bear market when the roll over completes! Please chime in any narratives you want as to why this can or cannot happen in the comments below.by Badcharts5
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade. Shortby Tradersweekly7
short?Are we ready for a correction? We broke down and now we should keep going down as long the candle dont close above the highest candle this is a good setup for a big move down.Shortby misternico3
US500 Bullish Long Term - Keep BuyingUS500 keep buying on daily till bullish trend stops. US500 bullish till bearish appears on weekly.Longby nm3107Updated 1110
S&P 500S&P 500 is in a downward channel and is forming head and shoulders pattern. You can see the possible scenario.by Masoud4021
Resumption of the bullish momentum?The S&P 500 (US500) has made a bullish reaction off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance. Pivot: 5,117.40 1st Support: 4,956.50 1st Resistance: 5,263.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.ULongby ICmarkets1
Break out of pitchfork with rsi also structure break Broke multiple bearish continuations. Typically cycle violently breaks from pitchfork. Advanced rsi momentum break observation. A great stop behind volitile buyers. Longby user28394091
🗓️Weekly Report: Key levels & Trade IdeasGENERAL MARKET REVIEW Concerns over a potential military attack by Iran on Israel triggered a gap down in the market at the beginning of trading on Friday. Following these events, there was a surge in oil prices, which then led to widespread sell-offs across the board. Virtually all stocks took a hit, with growth stocks experiencing declines ranging from $2 to $72, notably including MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR . For this evening's analysis, we'll begin by examining the charts of the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and the S&P-500 (SPX). –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– SPX-500 The SP:SPX has been movig lower and plundged to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (red) on Friday. Holding this line could lead to an oversold bounce on the market. However, should a broader market selling start, then it is very possible that we test the 5000 psychological level or even the 4700 level that was rejected in August 2023 and February 2023. 💡Another interesting fact SP:SPX has created 22 all time highs this year (2024) and returned more than 25% over the past five months and has gone more than 1 year without experiancng a 1 day decling more than -2%. This is the 6th longest such streak since 1965. If you are wondering when are the other times: 2007, 1986, 1996, 2018, 1993. On average the index makes only 29 consecutive trading days without a 1 day that has more than -2% decline💡 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– QQQ Very similar as it is clinging on the 50-day Simple Moving Average. QQQ and SPX are holding much better than the IWM or DIA, which have been consistently underperforming on their Relative Strength against the SPX. –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– META Meta has earnings on 24April (Wednesday). It has been holding very well and is a constructive pattern. You can see a triangle forming. Pay attention to the volume pattern. When the stock is moving up in this base the volume bars are higher than when the stock is moving lower –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– NVDA Too choppy for anything more than a quick trade. Next Technical buy point for me is at the $974 on heavy volume. I could start nibble on it with a quarter or a half position size as it is making constructive formations within this forming base. Constructive formations = higher highs, tight pivots. This is very watched stock so it would have high correlation to the general market by TintinTrading1
SPX500 heads up at 5100: major fib cluster with 5137 the keySPX500 has just hit a massive resistance zone. Cluster includes Genesis, Covid, and other fibs. Expecting a reaction here, perhaps a local top? 5109 - 5166 is the exact zone of interest. 4896 - 4901 is the first good support below. 5429 - 5493 is next major resistance above. ========================================== by EuroMotifUpdated 28
Earnings alert: Companies to watch for potential trades this weeAs we step into the second week of the Q1 earnings season, a roster of major financial players is gearing up to unveil their financial reports. Expect updates from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Blackstone, and Charles Schwab. Additionally, non-financial companies like UnitedHealth, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, P&G, J&J, and ASML Holding are also slated to release their earnings. While bank stocks have been outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index in the past six months, the tide may be turning in the first quarter of this year. Despite JPMorgan's announcement of a modest 6% rise in profits on Friday, shares dropped over 5% following the bank's conservative full-year projections for net interest income. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw declines in profits. On Wednesday, eyes will be on Discover Financial Services as it presents its results following the announcement of its acquisition by Capital One in February. And wrapping up the week is American Express, which is set to report after providing strong full-year guidance and increasing its dividend in the last quarter. Blackstone is expected to reveal a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues. Thursday brings Netflix's report, with the streaming giant aiming to maintain its momentum in subscriber growth. Netflix's management has recently expressed confidence in their growth strategy, emphasizing improvements across all aspects of their platform, the introduction of paid sharing, and the expansion of their advertising offerings. Consumer product giants Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble will disclose their earnings on Tuesday and Friday respectively, offering insights into whether increased prices are sustaining revenue growth. Meanwhile, health insurer UnitedHealth Group is set to report on Tuesday amid rumors of an antitrust investigation. by BlackBull_Markets6
SPX: in a correction mood?Market never liked uncertainties, which was evident on the US equity markets for one more time. The optimism from the beginning of this year is still not fading, however, it reacts to increased inflation data in the US and also geopolitical tensions, which for one more time are emerging in the Middle East. The future period might bring some challenges to the market optimism, regardless of the fact that the US economy is in a relatively good shape, despite restrictive monetary policy. Aside, it should be also considered that China`s authorities brought a decision not to use foreign made chips in local computers. As Wall Street Journal reported, companies which would be most impacted by this decision are AMD and Intel, whose stock prices fell around 5% during the previous week. The S&5 500 closed Friday`s trading session 1.46% lower. This was the second worst trading day since the beginning of this year. The index closed at level of 5.123. Some impact on this move had a relatively disappointing release of Q1 results within the banking industry. JPMorgan shares dropped by more than 6%, Wells Fargo was down by 0.4% while Citigroup slipped by 1.7%. Charts are showing that the S&P 500 is still not in the oversold momentum, however, it is moving toward this territory. In this sense, and taking into account geopolitical and economic risks, there is some probability that correction might continue during the course of the week ahead. by XBTFX15