Yesterday JPowell was very dovish. In summary, it's clear that the FED will use every tool necessary to achieve full employment. This implies that he'll let inflation run hot above 2% for a while. The recent rise in the US 10 YR yield indicates inflation is coming. However, JPowell said that he won't use tools to raise rates to follow the yield curve yet but...
The total Non-Commercial net positions have been rising since US bond yields had a major u-turn. However, there is divergence showing up among Non-Commercial Traders with leveraged traders continuing to add more short positions. Why is price going higher? Simply, price action has been converging with trading action of asset managers. My best guess, pension...
My first Target has been reached. Now, I'm expecting a retracement to test the previous level of support now resistance before heading lower. Lower prices will be bad for the market as it implies that deflation is coming. Yields have been rising faster spooking the markets with equity indices already in correction mode.
Do own due diligence Ethereum has bounced off the previous ATH. Momentum is still present despite the correction. RSI Multi-year momentum growth 4H MACD Seasonality
Months ago, I made an analysis about the future of the pair and now, the first Target Profit is closer - by a month or so. A 5-year bear market could be broken. I expect further gains as the UK figures out its 'successful' Brexit situationship and vaccination efforts. A retracement is expected from all the bullisness in the past few months. However should the...
Berkshire Hathaway dumped Barrick Gold shares entirely in Q4 2020, Blackrock dumped Gold for Silver, Banks think Gold will close 2021 below $1800, Gold Weekly close below 50 week Moving Average. CFTC COT Weekly report shows that Money Managers (hedge funds and similar institutions) continue to close more long positions without actually opening short positions.
USDJPY has been bullish for the past four weeks. Of interest is that the spot currency is moving in tandem with treasury yields. What's next for the USDJPY? It has approached a strong level of resistance and a 50-week moving average I'll be monitoring the currency to determine whether it will break the 50-week moving average as rates keep rising.
The lowest-rated debt keeps outperforming safer securities, with investors apparently more concerned about Treasury yields moving higher than credit risk. Investors are now demanding the least extra yield to own junk bonds over investment-grade notes since 2014. Rising treasury yields implies one of two scenarios is happening or about to happen. 1. Global...
2021 economic data around the world has so far shown dismal economic performance. Just this week, we learnt that UK GDP dropped by 9% in 2020 and the US and European CPI data isn't showing what many people were expecting - Inflation. No Inflation in sight The US FED has repeated month after month that there's no inflation and that their expectations for the...
Bitcoin is in bubble territory and may fall to $20k. Further weakness may cause panic in the markets pushing the price lower. Many retail traders are still bullish on the cryptocurrency. Outflows from the cryptocurrency markets may push the DXY higher.
Gold price held down by resistance level. Breakout would suggest the confirmation of next impulse higher. US Dollar is in the beginning of the next bear market --> Commodities are bullish --> Commitment of Traders -- > Long-term accumulation of Gold by hedge funds and institutions. Current positioning showing possible bottom is locked in
After a recent breakout from a range, SILVER seems to be retesting a strong Support level Hedge fund managers & Institutions are not closing long positions yet. CFTC_COT Weekly Data
Long-term Fundamentals - Bearish Long-term Technicals - Bearish Medium term Fundamentals - Bearish Medium-term Technicals - Neutral Short-term Fundamentals - Bullish Short-term Technicals - Bullish Recommendation: SELL on strength.
Finally, a breakout. Buy all pullbacks Previous analysis
Q1 2021 Targets Resistance Breakout Buy on pullback.
Price action indicates that GOLD may be at the start of the next bull run. A few more levels of resistance remain with the closest one being around a psychological $1900 level
Sentiment for Global Recovery Further EUR weakness expected as fiscal & monetary stimulus in Europe will push inflation-linked assets higher globally. Auddie strength on commodities correlation as global inflation is expected to rise as vaccine roll-out helps boost economic recovery. Economic activities are expected to bounce back as vaccination efforts...
Since my last update, the pair has generally moved in a range. This may imply that the Cable is not strong enough to break above the trend line or the NZD isn't strong following the bullish momentum it has had in the past few weeks. The CFTC COT Weekly reports show that the NZD net long positioning has been steadily rising since October while net short positions...