GrizzlyBearBee

GrizzlyBearBee

The 'Stimulus Optimism Trade' is back Around the world, major fiat currencies are looking at major devaluation. In the US, a stimulus deal is in the works with a bipartisan group of lawmakers in discussions for $900+ billion deal to stimulate the economy. Last month's jobs report showed that economic recovery is slowing down. This may have tipped Democrats...

GrizzlyBearBee

GBPUSD is breaking out of a long-term downward trend line. Next target perched just above 1.40xx. Reason, USD weakness

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Historically, USDJPY has had a positive correlation with interest rates. This implies that whenever rates go down, USDJPY follows lower. However, since September this year, rates as seen on the US 10 YEAR YIELD have been rising. USDJPY was falling on USD weakness. Interest rates are rising as the US Federal Reserve has been providing massive QE and financial help...

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The pair has broken out of a parallel channel from 2017 and is expected to retrace to test the lower channel before heading lower. The CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA shows that the Kiwi 🥝 Dollar has been getting stronger and stronger bouyed by the swift and effective response by the government on Covid19. Last week's fundamental data from New Zealand has been bullish and...

GrizzlyBearBee

I understand that many people are still bullish on gold which is perfectly fine. Many wouldn't agree with me that 1700 is the best buying zone. It is in confluence with a strong demand zone and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level - of a long 2020 bull run since the beginning of the year - is in the Zone. As for the traders who use moving averages to analyse...

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NZD Pairs have been largely bullish in the past few weeks. Expect some form of retracement or consolidation. As per the CFTC COT weekly report NZD has grown in net positions in the past few months. Expect the big banks to start taking profits before the next leg.

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In this pair, a horizontal resistance seems to be rejected in the past few days. Price is also hugging the upper channel of a bearish parallel channel. I expect it to reject lower. The EURO's net positions as per last week's CFTC COT REPORT are at 134k. Long positions have been falling for most of the second half of 2020 as hedge funds take profits. The EU is...

GrizzlyBearBee

I expect the pair to retest the JPY70.5xx - JPY70. 2xx support zone which is also in confluence with a multi-year bear market trend line.

GrizzlyBearBee

The tide in the $20 trillion Treasury market appears to be turning in favor of the bulls for now, with expectations growing that the Fed will boost purchases of longer-maturity debt as soon as next month after Mnuchin requested the FED to return the money set aside for lending programs in the US. This implies we could see a weak US Dollar moving forward. However...

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Hedge funds may be gearing up for more upside. The EURO became the most used currency in the world in the past few months. This is a result of a falling US Dollar. Technical analysis shows a trendline acting as resistance. Should the breakout be successful, I'll be buying the EURO for the medium-term. Price has also rejected a downward trend line stretching from...

GrizzlyBearBee

$1860 has proved to be quite the strong 💪 Support level.... With the US Senate showing less interest in approving another stimulus package, further downside on Gold is possible. If the $1860 level is breached from a daily candle close below the price, the $1845, $1800 and $1765 are on the cards before the end of the year.

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On high possibility of a good Brexil Deal and COVID-19 vaccine roll-out around the world, it will be easier for the Cable to gain strength against the Swiss Franc, a safe haven currency. However, a 0.236 fibonacci level resistance of the previous 5-YEAR bearish run prevents the medium-term bulls from taking control. The level is also a 0.5 Fibonacci level...

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

The pair is currently testing trendline 1. A rejection to the downside will open up the 1.59xx support. A further retracement to the 0.382 fibonacci level is on the cards.

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Should this be of any concern going forward?

GrizzlyBearBee

A few months ago, I made an analysis of why the EURO will get stronger against the DXY. The same target is in my playbook for 2021. Here's why I'm bullish on the spot currency. DXY Weakness The US Dollar is entering a bearish phase that will see the reserve currency fall into a multi-year cycle low until 2023-24 based on experts' analysis. This is...

GrizzlyBearBee

Crude Oil didn't reach my initial $39.34 🎯 . However, I'm still bearish expecting a further downward retracement of the Pfizer vaccine news bull run. The target is a strong level of support and is in confluence with a 0.618 fibonacci level. Mordena's Vaccine news have bulged the commodity just a bit higher compared to the reaction of Pfizer vaccine data. This...

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

Following positive Vaccine news on Monday, investors are already buying into reflation trade ideas. This implies that it won't be long till the global economy bounces back once vaccine distribution starts next year. However, we are still far from having an approved vaccine. Therefore, US Oil has two narratives to go buy. Vaccine approval happens sometime...

GrizzlyBearBee

Markets are now taking on a reflation attitude. The EU is on track for further stimulus and this will further push the EURO lower. One of the best pairs to take advantage on is EURNZD as the New Zealand Dollar demand is high following a drop of Covid19 cases in New Zealand.