Spread between Chinese and JGB's appears follow Bitcoin (usd) pretty well. As expected: bitcoin is the exact opposite of a portfolio hedge, and just a call option (like Tom Lee has made the case for) for growth. Interestingly enough, falling rates appear to stimulate selling and rising rates entice buying.
Kospi leading the way, weak forward guidance on NVDA has confirmed the huge divergence. $XSD already on this 200 DMA and looking like it might compress and fall through. Applying general global macro consensus, the declining commodities prices and liquidity being taken out of EM will also trigger a decline on imports from Korean's largest trading partners,...
TOPS AND BOTTOMS: Bitcoin Guru's always tend to be able to do them effectively without any mis-steps or errors. When they're wrong; you should have done your own analysis, & when they're right; you're a noob if you didnt take that call. So why not just trade the opposite of what they say? is it possible to aggregate market...
The Volume is drying up, and this intermediate wedge looks like its going to fulfill to the downside. The summer break is also in a couple of weeks, beware of heavy selling into June.
Note: Strategy is long only.
I'll finish everyone's thought on this topic with something you can actually execute on.
Correlation coefficients are relative to two dimensions: Time and periodicity. Its important to understand that when plotting between these correlations, because in this case you could be missing over 50% of information. Bitcoin trades on a 24/7 market, while SPX/QQQ/NI225...
In previous posts i have been bearish in US equities, which has not changed as i am holding long dated SPY/QQQ puts.
However there does present an opportunity for a long here in the interim. Ignore fundamentals for this trade. Play the technicals on this resolution.
SYNTHETIC VIX -5.84% -5.84% on VIX -5.84% -5.84% ™ :
Ascending triangle on the daily, vix -5.84% -5.84% fix fed into RSI (5) showing its reaching >70 of the range, along w/ a BB showing its peaking outside of the normal distribution. SPX/SPY/ES also showing similar reversal patterns as well, iHS -0.42% -0.42% seems looks like it is about to be null and void.
take the long on SPY. JNK and other high yield assets are continuing their bleed, which could mean that any type of positive reaction here will result in a dead cat bounce.
Take the SPY long, and then look for a put to offset any downside risk.
We have to pay attention to whats going on in the general market, as its will really help us make sound choices going into the close of the market.
Stay safe out there! The real money isn't made buying bottom or selling top; It's made after confirmation of trend.
earlier in the day, EDIT announced on a 50M public offering of common stock, resulting in diluting share holders on a P/E basis and also hinting the possibility of financial distress or mis-calculation on future earnings or road blacks.
From a purely technical standpoint, it was already a logical place to take profit and look for future strength to see if the...