MarcoOlevano

MarcoOlevano Updated 

Starting to get interested in US bonds here... If you look at this chart since 2023 using fibonacci channels and uptrend support.. we could well start to see a bid in Bonds here. Also note that the weekly RSI is starting to show signs of divergence here which could be warning of a rally to come.. We could still flush down to 103 but i think i would start building...

MarcoOlevano

Royal Gold has bounced off strong long term support at the $88 level. In addition we have broken the downtrend line (DT) which has held price down since June, as well as breaking above the horizontal resistance level at 95.70. Some very important technical levels broken and respected here and I would hope to see this move to the resistance area just under the 200...

MarcoOlevano Updated 

watch for some consolidation above this 18.00 USDZAR level. If we see equity markets settling and some return to risk assets in the next few days, we could see zar move back to 17.50-17.60 in the short term. Extended strength could see us back to around 17 which would coincide with the lower end of this channel.

MarcoOlevano Updated 

Gold seems to have held a very important fibonacci retracement here at the exact half way market (50% fib) of the 2008 lows and 2020/2022 highs. Whilst the break under the major $1680 support level was a major dent in the chest of the bulls, the market will need to reclaim $1680 in my view before the bulls can take back any sort of control. $1680 is also...

MarcoOlevano

Deutsche Bank Agri ETF has broken down from this rising wedge and now firmly stuck between the anchored vwaps from the recent swing highs and lows which are acting as both resistance and support. This wedge pattern is generally a continuation pattern in the direction of the preceding trend so i would expect this to work its way down to the anchored vwap support...

MarcoOlevano

Some big levels on monthly chart: (1) consolidating above the 200 simple and exponential moving averages (green bands) (2) S1 yearly pivot (3) 23.6% fib channel using closing lows and highs from 2015 and 2020 (4) Holding 40 RSI level which has been critical support for ANG over the last 5 years Let's see how we do in the next few months but my bet is we get a...

MarcoOlevano

breakdown of the neckline of this head & Shoulders formation should see Ethereum retest the lows formed in June of approximately $880. Stop would be a close back above 1425.

MarcoOlevano

This chart doesn't need much explanation - the $1680 has been solid support on multiple occasions since April 2020. It is also where we see intersection of both the 200 simple and 200 exponential moving averages which should provide further support. This level should hold but also watch out for the flush of weak hands and reversal above. Always safer to buy the...

MarcoOlevano

DBC - Invesco Deutsche Bank Commodity Index has closed and broken below both the rising channel and the 200 day moving average. Technically this is quite damaging and it will be interesting to see if we get follow through to the downside. Crude oil and gasoline are major weights in this basket accounting for half of the weighting followed by gold at just over 6%...

MarcoOlevano

Alibaba has been trying to carve out a bottom since March 2022 with its 3rd successive higher low preceded by 2 successive higher highs. Bulls will want to ensure the $87-$88 horizontal support zone is held so as not to make a lower low than the August Base. The bears will be licking their lips for a gap close of $84 but the bulls on the other hand will want to...

MarcoOlevano

Chart speaks for itself.. after failing below the 200dma oil has managed to climb back and hold above the 200dma (green).. it has also broken a downtrend which has kept price action moving lower. over the last couple of weeks. odds are for higher oil prices from here.. I have seasonality only peaking at the end of September so it would then suggest we can expect a...

MarcoOlevano

I first published this chart in December last year with the view of owning gold & gold miners over Bitcoin. Whether you took a spread on Gold spot or gold miners(GDX) vs. BTCUSD, either one would have doubled your money this year. It has been a great trade indeed but interesting to note how strong this uptrend has been since the end of last year and there looks...

MarcoOlevano

As we all know, Brent crude has been one of the strongest commodities for quite some time given all the supply issues from Russia/Ukraine and under investment. Oil has lost some critical technical levels losing both its horizontal support, rising channel as well as 200 day moving average. The market can be telling us two things, potentially, (1) there is some sort...

MarcoOlevano

The All country World index has bounced once again off the 200 week ma and declining channel support. We have seen an approximate bounce of 8% from the recent lows. However looking deeper at the chart, we are still trading inside the declining channel and I would like to see a close above the $92 pivot level before getting too excited - that would then start to...

MarcoOlevano

Gold miners testing an important level of horizontal support vs. the SPY (relative chart). If it fails to hold 0.062, we could get further underperformance from gold miners relative to SPY. On the contrary a hold of this support and we could see gold miners start to outperform the general market. For that to happen it would be important to see a reversal form off...

MarcoOlevano

GLD ETF has reached a significant horizontal support level which has been in play for over 2 years now. Will we get another bounce off this level? Also interesting that this support is intersecting at the weekly 200ema. Not a bad risk reward to try play a reversal off this significant support as your risk can be quite limited

MarcoOlevano

Bitcoin dominance has been stuck for the better part of a year between 39% and 48%. We have recently seen dominance fall back from as high as 48% right back to around 43% where we seem to have found some support above the 200day moving average and at the anchored vwap from the JAN 2022 lows. Looks like bitcoin wants to regain some of that dominance here.

MarcoOlevano

Really like the way Alibaba is bottoming here. Not only have we broken the steep downtrend which has held price down for the last year, but we have broken horizontal resistance at $120 while holding above a new daily uptrend line. Today is the first break above the 200dma since Feb 2021, which is another encouraging sign. Should we hold this breakout above $120 on...