IvanLabrie
Short

BTCUSD, 10 year notes and Gold: Are they ready to fall again?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
This is a simple analytic piece on Gold             , Bonds and Bitcoin . After the Fed meeting yesterday, the market clearly decided the fears of low rates and weak dollar were justified, with a very dovish Fed, and gold             and 10 year notes rallied (and quickly chinese buyers followed suit in BTC ).

The interesting part is that gold             has yet again broken the recent highs, which like we were discussing in the 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, might be warning us that there is a Megaphone type pattern unfolding here, contrary to popular belief that this is a consolidation before a giant uptrend starts in Gold             .
The gap up in ZN1!             is really remarkable here as well, it might give way to a very strong topping pattern soon.
BTC has hit a monthly resistance, but is currently above it. I'm waiting for the month to close to more precisely determine when to short it (if at all). For now you could maybe trade shorter term long setups in it, although it might be dangerous in this climate.

The bottomline is, that for gold             and 10 year notes to top, we needed mass hysteria to reach the boiling point and I think this might be it. We'll need confirmation to enter shorts, but if you're long, look to trail your stop or get out, that's my personal reccomendation. The same is true for BTC longs.
I'll update the chart once we get a good short setup in either of these instruments.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: As expected gold turned down for the day, after a sharp rally into the highs. We can either short now with stops above today's high, or short under the low after the close. Keep in mind this is a very aggressive short entry, so risk only half.
Comment: Good progress. 10 year notes were a clear short. Gold should fall soon as well, BTC is just starting.
Comment: BTC is finally reacting down.
Comment: And yes, BTC did drop from here, let's see how it evolves.
Trade closed manually: Take partial profits or get out of shorts now.
Comment: BTC might be bottoming. I'm long with 10% downside risk.
Comment: -this one was spot on...-
You are shorting btc on before the halving? good luck......
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO altcoins_trading
I'm not short yet. Just explaining the idea here, of why it will probably top soon.
Don't you think too many people think BTC will rally after the halving and above 1000?
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Sidenote: did you read the post?
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how much is too many, think about it that the majority don't even know about bitcoin yet. anyway 1000$ is possible, why not?
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IvanLabrie PRO altcoins_trading
Most people that know it, think that. I don't think that is the driver of this rally though. More likely related to chinese people wanting to take money out of China.
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halving, brexit, fed talk. China, and more bullish fundmentals.. it's time to be cautious i agree, but i don't think we are at the end yet.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO altcoins_trading
Brexit and the Fed aren't bullish for BTC directly, but people associate it, I agree. They just want an excuse to buy, or someone wants an excuse to sell to people higher. Either way, we're reaching critical mass, so we might have a top soon.
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Fanatik_ IvanLabrie
I wasted the last market cycle by calling tops, i hope you don't waste your time like i did.
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Hi, thanks for the comment. I'm not opposed to taking short term long setups in the 4h/8h chart for example. But I'm vigilant for price action suggesting a top is in.
+1 Reply
it's a smart approach to look for related side trades to this idea instead of head-on shorting the coin. ETHBTC seems pretty stalled though, but holding its own. same as BTCUSD, simply holding sell pressure (though volume's another story with this pair)
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I'm more comfortable in ETHBTC longs at this point.
Thanks for stopping by.
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ismikle IvanLabrie
Strangely, suddenly ETH and The DAO dropping like stones. ETH down 18% in 209 minutes and DAO 40% in the same period and still falling
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http://uk.businessinsider.com/dao-hacked-ethereum-crashing-in-value-tens-of-millions-allegedly-stolen-2016-6
+1 Reply
I also covered this in my new ETHEUR publication.
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Useful analysis and opinion sharing. Echo your idea on gold and will be vigilant on my current long BTCUSD. Thanks as always fella.
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Thanks, I'll update it once I think it's safe to short (or close longs).
Good luck!
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Ivan,

I liked your recommendation but i would like to wait June 23 for the Brexit.
+1 Reply
Not a bad idea either, the market fears it strongly, I think there is opportunity in going long the Pound.
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Ivan.Hello, I am Xiaoxian, remember? Are you still in touch with Chinese women?
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what are your targets down for BTC currently?
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IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
Hi, I have no targets now, but the level price would return to eventually would be 450 roughly.
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BitcoinGuru IvanLabrie
ah ok - well the current support as of now for me:
4842cny or $720
4496cny or $660 (should hold for the rally to continue)
3588cny or $550 (strong support from 2014 - where we will consolidate before another rally)
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IvanLabrie PRO BitcoinGuru
I haven't shorted it yet, not sure I would. I'd simply sell (which I did a couple days ago).
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Congratulations!
+1 Reply
Thanks, hope it was a useful publication.
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malotiin PRO IvanLabrie
It was ;)
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Great. Posting update now.
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abail IvanLabrie
so, in your opinion btc will rally again?
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It might find support, accumulate for a while and then rally again. Maybe the timing aligns with fundamentals (probably once the halving is out, or slightly before it).
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