IanSinclaire

You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...

Short
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
... When:

  • The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
  • Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/... amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!);
  • In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
  • The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
  • In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization;
  • When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%);


Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
Comment: ** Foot Note;
The technical picture (projection) is rather strait forward here.
As it happens, it also coincides with every reliable, forward measure (leading indicator), projecting a *** minimum decline of 70% in the SP500 *** upon the completion of this next full cycle.
That 70% projected decline would be nothing more than a run-of-the-mill, garden variety return to historic norms. E.g. Absolutely nothing special or out of the ordinary. - Which is why it is projected as a *** minimum decline ***.
(If its any consolation, the Dow (DJIA) should fare worse but at the end it will be a little difference without distinction.)
Comment: Also, the Median SP 500 Component Valuation link - above - got somehow mangled. Here is that link, again;
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/...
Comment: This is likely to have a very hard time getting past here. SELL it!
Comment: Expect a strait drop here, right onto the 20 Day EMA - should that be able stop it.
Trade closed: target reached: FLAT - for now; +48.25
Comment: ... you also know(!!) this bubble is in it's final moments ...

When;



  • The Nasdaq is leading the whole US Index complex lower ....
    ... 6 strait weeks in a row - and without any sign of relenting;
    From this post;

  • The FAANGs are on a relentless march Down vs. the DJIA;

  • When even the 18 Central Banks (led by the SNB) that (re)inflated U.S. Equities, in a coordinated manner, are at a point that *** they uniformly refused to purchase any more Nasdaq stocks since February, 2021! *** (Source; The CME's own Central Bank Incentive Program (“CBIP”))

  • When according to the "talking heads (on MSNBC, etc.)" a collapsing U.S, Trade Balance "... is the sign of a vivarant economy.";

  • When no less than three mammoth hedge funds/traders/positions get *** force liquidated *** in one short week - as in; last week;

  • When U.S. Housing Starts (a leading indicator) suddenly post a 2 STD decline;



  • and so on...

Comments

IanSinclaire NusratJahan
@NusratJahan, Cheers
Reply
good points! I believe we are in a bubble too. When will it pop- I wish I knew lol. Thank you for posting!
+2 Reply
IanSinclaire PuckBunny
@PuckBunny, Cheers
Reply
IanSinclaire PuckBunny
Reply
Hoop it works
+1 Reply
IanSinclaire Stephenanderson
@Stephenanderson, Chances are... Cheers
Reply
OMG bubble burst SELL, SELL, SELL. ES_F is above 4k will likely continue higher prob only 10-20% correction near the future not more than that. Haha calling a top is fools game. You think after injecting so much cash into market FED will throw economy under the train I do not think so.
Reply
I continue to love your thoughts. You are exactly right on. Maybe it is popping now. I've been tricked before however, so I am a bit leery we are crashing. It will come- but it will probably come when I think oh, it's just a pullback- LOL. The nice thing about being a short term trader is I don't have to sit through a crash, I just switch sides. But I expect that at some point the market will crash about 50% or more. But like always, it will return to new highs (hopefully). Keep up the brilliant work. I am a fan! :)

Ms. Bunny
Reply
IanSinclaire PuckBunny
@PuckBunny, Exactly. Just trade it the way the wind blows, at that moment. Cheers
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