The minutes statement indicated that the Fed saw risks to near-term (as the five-year breakeven rate hit five-year lows) and growth. The once “sure bet” on a September rate hike quickly dwindled, and the possibility of another round of quantitative easing is growing.
There has been a lack of attention to two key revelations within mainstream media:
The Bank of International Settlements (the of ) and the St . Louis Fed have come out publicly to express that quantitative easing has been the epitome of failure. Both institutions have stated that the massive expansion and zero policy (ZIRP) has not added any growth to the real economy.
The BIS has even gone as far as to say that the world is defenseless against the next crisis, which many “Main Street” analysts believe is around the corner. In regards to a efficacy of ZIRP, the white paper publish by the St . Louis Fed said:
“A Taylor-rule central banker may be convinced that lowering the central bank’s nominal target will increase . This can lead to a situation in which the central banker becomes permanently trapped in ZIRP.
With the nominal at zero for a long period of time, is low, and the central banker reasons that maintaining ZIRP will eventually increase the rate. But this never happens and, as long as the central banker adheres to a sufficiently aggressive Taylor rule, ZIRP will continue forever, and the will fall short of its target indefinitely. This idea seems to fit nicely with the recent observed behavior of the world ís .”
But, this is not just the Fed’s problem. Quantitative easing has been a failure in Japan and Europe. In a “defenseless” world and crisis looming, gold stands to greatly benefit.
Price action for gold is fueled by short-covering (near-term) because the dollar just base-jumped of the hopes and expectations of a Wall Street recovery. However, as Pandora’s box is opened, gold’s upside potential becomes great.
Resistance can be found at $1,162, which is slightly below the descending trend created in late January. If price action can close above these key levels, gold will attempt to challenge the 200-day near $1,182. The 50 percent Fib. retracement of January’s downtrend is at $1,189.
As long as the dollar remains soft, gold will be relatively supported at these levels. Although, price taking can take place and healthy. The daily is approaching 69, but the weekly and monthly is below 45.
Moreover, the weekly chart is showing a +/- DMI crossover, suggesting a potential inflection point in the most hated asset on Wall Street.
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Wall Street is coming to the realization that the Fed is not in control, and it is unlikely that rates will ever normalize. Growth in the U.S. And abroad is horrendous. Atlanta Fed GDPnow is tracking a whopping 1.3% in Q3.
Not to say after this large move, profits won't be taken. However, the pound gold lower because the world is growing trade is over IMO