XLE Broke Significant Support on Crude Price Woes

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The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund ( XLE             ) has been battered, and it is starting to bruise.

With the price of crude now just hovering $43 per barrel, this exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) is likely to get a whole lot cheaper.

This fund has support near-term because Wall Street is discounting recent events in the oil             industry, as they did during the second-half of 2014. It also pays a dividend of 2.93 percent (SEC 30-day).

Thinking back, the Federal Reserve's call that lower gas prices (via lower oil             ) was "unambiguously good" is striking a nerve with those laid of in the energy sector, which shed nearly 68,000 jobs last month alone.

With a technical perspective, the XLE             has confirmed downside weakness with a close below the major support trend created on 2009's bottom.

The trend's momentum could weakening slightly as traders fish off the bottom, but the strength of the trend still remains quite strong - ADX over 20 and a substantial divergence between +/-DMI.

Near-term range for XLE             is $64.39 and $71.46, while a "relief" rally could spark buying up to $74.12; but, crude would have to play nicely.

If current price support breaks, XLE             will trend lower within the disjointed angle (purple dotted line with grey shaded body), which represents widening support and resistance .

Additionally, the "death cross" is close to completion on the weekly chart. This bearish technical signal occurs when the 50-week moving average dips below the 200-week moving average.

At $43.27/bbl, crude is less than $2.00 about its inflation-adjusted price.

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XLE is now sitting on top of the Kumo Cloud on the monthly and is throwing a doji. Still it looks broken technically however a relief rally for a month would not be out of the question
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Yes, traders buy it regardless of fundamentals because it's "beat up" and has a "dividend." I still believe the XLE will trade lower within the disjointed trend line
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