TNX has been rising very rapidly. Now it's above 200-daily moving average. RSI is signaling overbought, but one must remember that it can stay overbought for some time. Maybe investors are realizing something? twitter.com
Rebound from the low of 125.627 on the back of a bullish price RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover has run into resistance at 127.23, which is 23.6% Fibo resistance of the sell-off from 132.424-125.627. Given the bullish divergence on the 4-hr and bullish pin bar on the daily chart the odds of a break above 127.23 and a rise to 128.00 are high. Only a...
Bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart followed by a rise to 127.00 levels suggests a retreat from Sep 27 high of 131.94 may have run out of steam and prices could rally further if the hurdle at 127.39 (Falling trend line + 23.6% Fibo) is breached. On the lower side, only a break below 125.84 would signal fresh sell-off.
Technically Speaking Two levels of support are coming up, 132.50, 127.50. If the latter does not hold, it is a pretty steep slide to the next level of demand at 120. I believe the better the better R/R would be to wait for a test of the 127.50, stopping out under 125.00. Remember, we as traders do not have to swing at every pitch. We are looking for mis-priced...
We got some movement in Bonds, and a small rise in Volatility. The Implied volatility is above the last year average, knowing that volatility is always overstated I look every opportunity to sell some premium. This is a small trade, but I will be selling the 33/30 Strangle 49 days from expiration for $1.22 per contract with a probability of making money at...
strength CAD good long with great profit potential
A test then break of 3 year trend line in RSI weekly. Been bearish bonds since August, this does not look good for gold as the gold story was mostly a yield story. I believe this will end up being a counter trend move with bond yields much lower than they are today, but that remains to seen. Best to stay out of the way and watch this thing play itself out.
Looking like a nice short setup on ZB and TLT.
When most people are fearing an asset bubble in treasuries, and after increasing fears of rising yields, with many doomsayers calling for the end of this 'bubble', and a rapid selloff, it's clear that $TLT has found support, and that we can take the long side if it breaks last week's high. An integral part in any portfolio, $CEF, and $TLT. See my previous $TLT...
If the triangle plays out and TLT swings lower, the red area is where I will be looking the first signs of support. We have 200 mA, a support line and a fib level in this area. A break above 141.72 would invalidate the triangle count.
The TNX should be watched very closely next week as the daily chart currently indicates a high risk of seeing another bond rally in the wake of the latest US employment figures (which weren't all that bad). If doubts over a possible Fed rate hike towards the end of the year strengthen in September, the 10-year yield could fall back to it's historical lows, reached...
Euro Bund. The break of the two tentative up trendlines may suggest that a correction in price already started. The below confirmed trendline ( solid green line), may act as support if the price will get there.
Bonds recently completed a 9 week right triangle and stayed below with Friday's close. I am personally not in the trade - not every market opinion you have warrants a trade, I have learned. A measured target for this move would be near the 164.25 area.
We can enter shorts in TLT in two different ways. One is derived from the daily and weekly charts, the other from the monthly. If more conservative take only the monthly trade. Otherwise you could risk half on each. I think the bonds have topped here and we'll see continued yield onwards. Good luck! Ivan Labrie. PD: if interested in my trading signals or private...
Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons. Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)- 1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative 2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued 3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...