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Gold softens after Fed minutes as smokestacks cap every rally Is there any way we can get a December rate cut now? Gold has softened after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest rate decision. The minutes show there’s no unified push toward cutting, which could make a December move unlikely. Several Federal Reserve officials supported lowering rates in October, but others preferred keeping policy unchanged, and some pushed back firmly against easing. Technically, XAUUSD continues to form smokestacks, printing repeated double-top structures. The price is now hovering around 4,070, sitting under possible short-term resistance at 4,150. XAUUSD losing the 50-day MA further could shift bias more decisively lower.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull Markets
GBP/JPY: An Unusual Ascent Amid Global RiskThe GBP/JPY pair currently sits near 204.00, retracing from a six-week high. This movement reflects a complex tug-of-war between the Pound Sterling (GBP) , which faces uncertainty from upcoming UK inflation data, and an uncharacteristically weak Japanese Yen (JPY) . We analyze the diverse forces driving this pair's recent unusual ascent, where the JPY fails to act as its traditional safe-haven counterweight. Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy Divergence The immediate market focus centers on divergent monetary policy expectations. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces pressure to align its policies with fiscal objectives, potentially limiting future rate hikes. This uncertainty, coupled with the new government's plan for large economic stimulus and lower taxes, dampens JPY demand. Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) awaits crucial UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show headline inflation moderating to *b]3.6% annually. This data will significantly influence the BoE's rate hike outlook, injecting caution into GBP trading ahead of the 07:00 GMT release. Geopolitics & Geostrategy: The Taiwan Factor A key reason for the JPY's recent underperformance is a shift in geopolitical sentiment toward Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adopted a firmer pro-Taiwan stance than her predecessors, triggering unease in Beijing. This heightened political tension weighs heavily on sentiment surrounding Japan, effectively diluting the Yen's traditional safe-haven magnetism against global risk. This specific anxiety overshadows the Yen's long-term status as the principal global currency counterweight. Fiscal Policy & Economic Outlook Concerns about Japan's fiscal health are also eroding the JPY's strength. The government is preparing a large economic stimulus package to boost growth. This spending raises concerns among investors worried about Japan's already stretched finances . These fiscal anxieties add direct pressure to the currency, making the JPY less attractive despite the current risk-off environment observed in global equity markets. This fiscal trajectory contrasts with the Bank of Japan's potential monetary hesitancy. Industry Trends & Corporate Vulnerabilities Corporate Japan's deep integration with the US technology sector presents another vulnerability. Many major Japanese companies maintain significant earnings exposure to the health and performance of the US tech boom. Corporate vulnerabilities tied to the US technology cycle are eroding the JPY’s traditional safe-haven appeal. Consequently, negative headlines or wobbles on Wall Street disproportionately mute the Yen's response, preventing it from rallying when global equities come under pressure. Management, Innovation, and Patent Analysis - While not an immediate driver, Japan's long-term currency strength relies on its competitive edge in high-tech and science . The current vulnerability suggests that the market is discounting the perceived innovation premium of corporate Japan. Traders see a connection between the dependency on US tech and a potentially lagging pace in domestic, cutting-edge patent analysis and independent industry leadership. Weak corporate sentiment reflects doubts about resilience and adaptive business models under new management. Conclusion for Strategic Hedging The Yen's uncharacteristic weakness creates a unique setup. The currency is behaving out of character relative to the worsening risk backdrop. This anomaly presents tactical opportunities for hedgers with exposure to the Yen. However, this phase is likely temporary. Japan’s enormous net international investment position and its central role in funding global carry trades mean the Yen's safe-haven DNA remains intact. If global markets experience a sharper, sustained downturn, expect the traditional gravitational pull into the JPY to reassert itself.
Long
by the5erstrading
Can The Yen Fight Inflation While Rates Stay Low?The AUD/JPY currency pair's surge above 101.00 is a direct result of two opposite forces. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strong because inflation is unexpectedly high, forcing the RBA to keep its interest rate at 3.60%. This high rate attracts global investment, as traders move money to Australia for better returns. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak because the BoJ maintains an extremely low interest rate, near zero, to boost its economy. This wide gap in rates makes the AUD/JPY a favorite for the "Carry Trade," where investors earn the difference, pushing the pair higher. Beyond just interest rates, geopolitics is playing a crucial role. The recent US-China trade deal, which saw a truce on certain tariffs and export controls on rare earth minerals, strongly benefits the commodity-linked AUD. Australia is a major exporter of these minerals. This trade calm reduces global risk and boosts demand for Australian goods. Conversely, the JPY suffers from political choices, as Japan's new government plans aggressive spending. This combination of low rates and high spending ensures the JPY remains weak, reinforcing the strong case for continued AUD/JPY strength.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Versus Monetary Policy Chart shows: —Bitcoin/Gold —20-Week SMA —SMA Slope Z-Scores* —Fed Funds —QE & QT Bitcoin/Gold broke support of its 20W SMA for the 6th time in Bitcoin's history while the SMA slope normalizer* value reached zero (the long SMA rolled over), the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, and QT is ending. These could represent increased bearish probabilities for the Btc/Gold ratio on medium and long timeframes. *Slope Normalizer: The differentiated (positive and negative values are separated before subsequent calculations are made with the data) normalized z-scores (z-scores below 1 are muted while z-scores above 1 are not muted, in order to emphasize unusual values.) When used with the SMA as an input, this essentially shows the normalized values of the rates of change of the SMA (on this chart, it is showing the normalized slope of the long-term simple moving average.)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by MarkLefevre
Can the Euro Break Free From the Dollar's Grip?The EUR/USD currency pair is extending a modest winning streak, nearing 1.1670 as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement. This marks the fifth consecutive day of gains for the pair, largely fueled by a cooling USD sentiment due to the prolonged US government shutdown and a cautiously dovish outlook from the Fed. Despite this short-term momentum, a sustained rally remains elusive. The pair is currently searching for a stronger catalyst, with the upcoming monetary policy meetings from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to provide the necessary spark for clearer directional movement. Immediate resistance levels are flagged around 1.1728 and 1.1778, while initial support rests at the October low of 1.1542. The underlying technical picture suggests that while the broader positive trend holds above the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), momentum is weak. Key indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just over 47 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 15, imply that the current upward move lacks conviction and leaves the door open for potential renewed losses. Investors are keenly focused on a potential shift in the narrative. A dovish surprise from the Fed, a reduction in the appetite for US assets, or a more encouraging stance from the ECB could provide the requisite lift for the Euro. Furthermore, any genuine progress in easing US-China trade tensions would also likely weigh on the USD and benefit the currency pair. The fundamental backdrop is characterized by the Washington stalemate and a cautious approach from both major central banks. The nearly month-long US government shutdown continues to erode business confidence and negatively impact growth expectations, contributing to the USD's drift lower. Meanwhile, the Fed is largely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at its upcoming meeting, maintaining a flexible, "meeting by meeting" policy approach as it balances softer job data against lingering inflation. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is opting to stay patient, with President Christine Lagarde expressing confidence that policy is "in a good place" and future adjustments will be entirely data-dependent, a signal that the European easing cycle may be largely concluded, at least for now.
Long
by the5erstrading
1
Exchange Rate Secrets1. What Are Exchange Rates and Why They Matter An exchange rate is simply the price of one currency in terms of another. For instance, if $1 = ₹84, that means one US dollar can buy eighty-four Indian rupees. But this number isn’t just a conversion figure — it’s a snapshot of economic power. When a country’s currency strengthens, imports become cheaper but exports turn costlier. When it weakens, exports surge but inflation might rise. Exchange rates influence: Global trade balances Investment decisions Inflation and interest rates Tourism and remittances Stock and commodity markets Understanding these hidden levers is the first step to decoding the secrets of exchange rate movements. 2. The Real Players Behind the Curtain Contrary to popular belief, exchange rates don’t move by chance. They’re often influenced — directly or indirectly — by a select few economic giants: a. Central Banks Institutions like the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of India hold the real levers. They manipulate interest rates to attract or repel foreign capital. They intervene in forex markets to stabilize or deliberately weaken their currency. They issue monetary policies that send shockwaves through global markets. For example, when the Fed raises interest rates, the US dollar usually strengthens — because higher returns attract global investors. b. Institutional Traders and Hedge Funds Major hedge funds trade billions in currencies daily. They anticipate policy changes and use leverage to amplify profits — creating massive short-term moves that can destabilize weaker economies. c. Governments Sometimes, governments quietly “manage” their exchange rates for strategic reasons. China, for example, has often been accused of keeping the Yuan undervalued to make its exports more competitive — a tactic dubbed “currency manipulation.” d. The Market Psychology Beyond data and policy, market sentiment — the collective emotion of traders — drives currencies. Fear of recession, geopolitical tensions, or even rumors can send exchange rates spinning faster than any spreadsheet can predict. 3. The Core Secrets Behind Currency Movements Now let’s unlock the deep, often hidden mechanisms that move currencies. These are the five pillars of exchange rate secrets: 1️⃣ Interest Rate Differentials Currencies tend to flow toward countries with higher interest rates. If India’s rates are 6% while the US offers 4%, investors may convert dollars to rupees to earn better returns. This inflow strengthens the rupee. But here’s the twist: expectations matter more than reality. Even a hint that the Fed may raise rates can trigger massive dollar inflows — long before the actual hike happens. 2️⃣ Inflation and Purchasing Power Currencies are mirrors of purchasing power. If inflation is high in one country, its money loses value faster. Low inflation, on the other hand, indicates stability and boosts confidence. This is why nations with consistent inflation control — like Switzerland and Japan — often see their currencies appreciated as “safe havens.” 3️⃣ Trade Balances Countries that export more than they import tend to have stronger currencies. Why? Because foreign buyers must purchase the exporter’s currency to pay for goods. For instance, Japan’s trade surplus has historically supported the yen. Conversely, a nation running persistent trade deficits (like the US) faces downward pressure — unless offset by investment inflows. 4️⃣ Political Stability and Global Confidence Political chaos often sends investors fleeing. A coup, election turmoil, or policy uncertainty can cause sudden devaluations. Meanwhile, stable governments with clear fiscal policies attract long-term investors — strengthening the currency. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the ruble initially collapsed. Yet, with aggressive capital controls and energy exports, it later stabilized — showcasing how government measures can rewrite currency fate. 5️⃣ Speculation and Market Manipulation The most guarded secret: exchange rates aren’t always fair reflections of fundamentals. Short-term volatility is often fueled by speculation — big money betting on future trends. Speculators can move billions in seconds, pushing prices away from equilibrium. Sometimes, their combined power even forces central banks to retreat — like in 1992’s “Black Wednesday”, when George Soros famously broke the Bank of England and earned over $1 billion in a single day. 4. The Hidden Mechanisms: Pegs, Floats, and Hybrids Every country chooses how “free” its exchange rate should be. A. Fixed (Pegged) Exchange Rate Here, the value is tied to another currency, like the US dollar. Example: Saudi Arabia pegs its riyal to the dollar to stabilize oil revenues. Advantage: predictability for trade. Disadvantage: vulnerability to external shocks. B. Floating Exchange Rate The value fluctuates based on market demand and supply. Example: The US dollar, euro, and Indian rupee are managed floats. Advantage: market-driven flexibility. Disadvantage: volatility during crises. C. Managed Float (Dirty Float) Most modern economies use this hybrid system — allowing markets to move rates but stepping in occasionally to maintain stability. These systems reveal another secret — that exchange rates are both economic tools and political weapons. 5. Currency Wars and Global Power Play When one country weakens its currency intentionally, others often retaliate — sparking a currency war. The logic is simple: a cheaper currency boosts exports and jobs. But when multiple nations do this simultaneously, it can spiral into global instability. 2010s: The US accused China and Japan of undervaluing their currencies. 2020s: Nations quietly use quantitative easing (printing money) to keep currencies weak. 2025: As emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Indonesia grow, they’re joining this silent battle — balancing competitiveness with credibility. 6. The Psychological Side of Exchange Rates Money is emotional. Exchange rates reflect not just economic numbers, but confidence. When investors “believe” in a country’s future — its leadership, innovation, and growth — its currency rises. Example: The US dollar thrives during crises — seen as a “safe haven.” The Swiss franc and Japanese yen surge when global uncertainty spikes. The Indian rupee strengthens when foreign investors see long-term growth potential. This psychological dance creates cycles — optimism, panic, correction — that drive exchange rate volatility beyond fundamentals. 7. Modern Secrets: Digital Currencies and Forex Algorithms The 21st century has introduced new players and tools that redefine how currencies behave. a. Algorithmic Trading Over 70% of forex volume now runs on algorithms — automated systems that execute trades based on millisecond data. These algorithms can amplify moves, creating sharp spikes or sudden reversals within seconds. b. Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and stablecoins have disrupted the concept of “sovereign money.” Some nations fear them; others embrace them. El Salvador adopted Bitcoin, while China banned it and launched its own digital yuan — a step toward controlling cross-border transactions. The secret here: digital currencies could one day bypass traditional exchange rates altogether. 8. The Indian Rupee in the Global Context India’s exchange rate journey is a fascinating case study: Pre-1991: A fixed regime tied to the pound, later the dollar. Post-liberalization: A managed float system with RBI intervention. Today: The rupee reflects both domestic fundamentals and global capital flows. Hidden truth? The RBI quietly smoothens volatility through buying or selling dollars — maintaining competitiveness for exports while protecting inflation targets. Future outlook: Stronger digital economy Growing exports (IT, pharma, energy) Controlled fiscal deficit All point toward a more resilient rupee in the long run — though short-term fluctuations will remain. 9. How Traders and Investors Decode Exchange Rate Secrets Smart investors don’t just watch the numbers — they watch the forces behind them. Here’s how they stay ahead: Monitor central bank statements — “forward guidance” often signals currency direction. Track bond yield differentials — a widening gap means a stronger high-yield currency. Follow geopolitical developments — sanctions, wars, or trade deals often move currencies overnight. Use Volume Profile and Market Structure — to identify institutional footprints in forex charts. Analyze capital flow data — especially FII (Foreign Institutional Investor) movements in emerging markets like India. By understanding these undercurrents, traders can align with the smart money — not against it. 10. The Future of Exchange Rates: Toward a Digital Reset Global monetary systems are entering a new era. The next decade may witness a “global currency reset”, where traditional paper currencies evolve into central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This shift could: Reduce transaction costs Increase surveillance and control Challenge the dominance of the US dollar Create new “exchange rate ecosystems” driven by technology rather than trade alone In short, the secrets of tomorrow’s exchange rates may lie not in central banks alone, but in blockchain codes and algorithmic governance. Conclusion: The Art and Science of Exchange Rates Exchange rates are far more than numbers flashing on a trading screen. They are reflections of economic strength, political will, psychological trust, and technological evolution. The secret to understanding them lies in reading between the lines — connecting data with direction, policies with perception, and numbers with narratives. As global markets evolve, those who grasp these hidden forces won’t just convert currencies — they’ll convert opportunities into fortune. Because in the end, exchange rates aren’t just about money — they’re about power. 🌍💰
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Powell cutting rates? But why would he?📉 Powell cutting rates? 100% priced in. Even talk of 1–2% slashes. But why would he? Let’s look at what the media ignores: 🇮🇳 Reports suggest India plans to cut its US Treasury holdings by up to 50% by 2025. That could mean roughly $450B hitting the market. Who’s going to buy that debt? The Fed? They’re already running negative equity — something that would be called insolvency for any private company. Lowering rates would allow the US government (and its billionaire buddies) to borrow even more cheap money — not to fix the economy, but to speculate, pump Bitcoin, and trash the dollar further. Inflation? Even worse. The US economy shows all the symptoms of a recession: layoffs rising, real wages falling, manufacturing shrinking. Official GDP numbers still look positive, but let’s not forget those “revisions” that always come later. Translation: the data is constantly massaged. So what’s the real goal? Probably to juice the housing market. But let’s be honest: US mortgage rates today are just average by historical standards. Russia’s rates are higher, yet their currency and balance sheet look healthier because they don’t live off endless money printing. The core problem is clear: reckless dollar printing to protect billionaire portfolios. And Powell? If he truly had conviction, he wouldn’t touch the rate at all.
SP:SPX
by CryptoNikkoid
15
EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype EUR/USD: Bullish Breakout to 1.20 Amid Fed Rate Cut Hype and #Fed Trends Buzz? 1.1920 Target in Sight? EUR/USD is trading at 1.1878 today, up 0.3% amid surging to a fresh four-year high as markets brace for the Fed's interest rate decision later, with expectations of a 50bps cut to 4.00-4.25% fueling dollar weakness. This comes as South Africa's Treasury eyes new Eurobonds post-$2B redemption, potentially bolstering Euro demand amid broader EM inflows. Just as #Fed racks up 12K mentions on X with rate cut speculation exploding, and #business trends highlight global bond stability (e.g., SA's move), EUR/USD's rally ties into ECB hawkishness versus Fed easing—positioning it as a high-conviction pair for September volatility. But with RSI overbought, is EUR/USD poised for a breakout to 1.20, or will a hawkish Fed surprise trigger a pullback? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, charts, and setups for September 17, 2025. Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD's strength stems from diverging monetary policies, with the ECB holding rates steady at 3.50% while Fed cut bets hit 65% for 50bps today, pressuring the dollar index to 98.50 lows. Analysts forecast a potential climb to 1.1920 if cuts confirm, with 2025 averages eyed at 1.15 amid Eurozone recovery data like 0.3% Q2 GDP growth. With #Fed trends going viral on X, the pair's sensitivity to dot plot signals undervalues its upside if projections show three more cuts by year-end; however, sticky US inflation (core PCE at 2.6%) could cap gains if the Fed pauses. - **Positive:** - Fed easing expectations weaken USD, amplified by #Fed hype and SA Eurobond plans signaling global Euro appetite. - Eurozone resilience with PMI at 51.2 supports hawkish ECB, projecting 1.5% 2025 GDP growth versus US slowdown risks. - Broader trends in #business (e.g., EM bond inflows) position EUR/USD for 2%+ monthly gains if cuts deliver. - **Negative:** - Overbought conditions risk correction to 1.1762 if Fed signals fewer cuts, clashing with #Fed optimism. - Geopolitical tensions and US election uncertainty could strengthen USD as safe-haven if volatility spikes. SWOT Analysis **Strengths:** Policy divergence favors Euro with ECB's steady rates versus Fed cuts, amplified by #Fed relevance in weakening USD sentiment. **Weaknesses:** High sensitivity to US data; overbought momentum vulnerable in a #business-shifting market post-Fed. **Opportunities:** SA Eurobond tap boosts Euro liquidity; #Fed cut confirmation could narrow discount, with undervalued upside at current levels amid 1.5% projected 2025 appreciation. **Threats:** Hawkish Fed pivot eroding gains; competition from yen or pound if global easing synchronizes amid viral #Fed discussions. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, EUR/USD shows a bullish ascending channel breakout to four-year highs at 1.1878, with volume surging on Fed anticipation and mirroring #Fed volatility. The weekly confirms an inverse head-and-shoulders from summer lows, now extending higher. Current price: 1.1878, with VWAP at 1.1850 as intraday pivot. Key indicators: - **RSI (14-day):** At 72, overbought but holding bullish—potential bounce signal amid #Fed surge. 📈 - **MACD:** Positive histogram expanding, crossover intact for upside momentum. - **Moving Averages:** Price above 21-day EMA (1.1750) and 50-day SMA (1.1650), golden cross supporting bull trend. Support/Resistance: Key support at 1.1810 (recent low), resistance at 1.1920 (Fib target) and 1.2000 (psychological). Patterns/Momentum: Channel extension targets 1.1920; fueled by #Fed momentum. 🟢 Bullish signals: Higher highs on volume. 🔴 Bearish risks: RSI divergence could prompt drop to 1.1690. Scenarios and Risk Management - **Bullish Scenario:** Break above 1.1920 on dovish Fed targets 1.2000; go long on pullbacks to 1.1810, especially if #Fed goes mainstream with cuts. - **Bearish Scenario:** Drop below 1.1810 eyes 1.1762; watch for death cross amid #Fed fade if hikes signal. - **Neutral/Goldilocks:** Range-bound 1.1810–1.1920 if dot plot mixed and #Fed cools. Risk Tips: Use stops at 1.1790. Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid correlation traps with #Fed-linked pairs like USD/JPY. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, a bullish bias if EUR/USD holds 1.1810, supercharged by today's #Fed and #business trends, with 1%+ upside to 1.20 on rate cut confirmation. But watch the Fed decision for confirmation—this fits September's policy divergence theme, but SA Eurobonds add supportive Euro tailwinds. What’s your take? Bullish on EUR/USD amid #Fed cuts or hedging the dip? Share in the comments!
by DCAChampion
BTC – Between Structure and Supply!BTC has been trading inside a clean ascending channel 📈, respecting both support and resistance. After breaking above the $113,000 structure zone, price pushed higher but is now approaching a potential retest area. 🟠 Structure zone ($113K – $114K): Could act as support on a pullback. 🟢 Channel support: Aligns perfectly with structure for confluence. 🔵 Supply zone ($122K – $124K): Next major resistance where sellers may step in. As long as BTC holds above structure, bulls 🐂 remain in control, with the next upside target sitting around the supply zone. Patience ⏳ is key — waiting for a clean retest could set up the next continuation trade. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entry, risk, and management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
XAUUSD Pre-Cut Rates!! Will the all time high streak continue??Gold continues to show strength after breaking above the 3,676 resistance and printing a new All-Time High at 3,686. This breakout further confirms the clear uptrend structure across all timeframes, from H4 to daily. Overall, buyers remain in control, although price is currently consolidating near the highs, likely gathering momentum for the next move. From a technical perspective, the latest candle closed above the key zone at 3,675–3,676, which has now flipped from strong resistance into dynamic support. As long as price holds above this area, the primary bias remains bullish, with potential continuation towards 3,708 and then 3,723 as the next upside targets. On the other hand, if a deeper pullback occurs and price fails to hold above 3,656, the door opens for a retest of lower support around 3,625. However, unless there is a confirmed reversal on the lower timeframes, the broader trend still favors the upside. 🎯 Trading Plan for Today Buy on dip at 3,656–3,660 SL: 3,625 TP1: 3,678 TP2: 3,686 TP3: 3,708 ⚠️ Avoid aggressive SELL positions unless there are clear rejection signals or strong reversal patterns on lower timeframes (M15–H1). For traders holding long positions from lower levels, consider partial take profit around TP1–TP2 while keeping some exposure for higher targets. 📌 Key Daily Zones R3: All-Time High R2: 3,724 R1: 3,687 Pivot: 3,675 S1: 3,637 S2: 3,601 S3: 3,586 ⚠️ Notes & CTA Suggestions Bullish momentum remains dominant, but price is trading far from major MAs, so a short-term pullback remains possible before further upside. Watch price action around 3,675–3,656. As long as there is no close below this support, the bullish scenario stays intact. Be cautious of volatility during the US session and use conservative lot sizing to stay protected from sudden swings. Always adjust SL levels according to intraday volatility to avoid being taken out by temporary moves.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AbsoluteWillid
Will BoE's Plan to Rundown QT Impact Cable (GBP/USD)Direct Impact: The QT slowdown itself is a small, modestly GBP-positive factor. It may provide a slight underpinning of support. If the BoE delivers the QT slowdown as expected and it's framed as a technical move, its impact will likely be overshadowed by the simultaneous interest rate decisions and guidance from both the BoE and the Fed. If you are looking to trade this, don't trade the QT headline in isolation. Trade the broader package of BoE communication and the Fed's decision. A "hawkish hold" from the BoE (holding rates but signaling they stay high for longer) combined with a "dovish" Fed could send GBP/USD meaningfully higher. The QT slowdown would be a minor supporting actor in that drama. (Unless of course the FED holds rates) In short: Expect a potential small, brief pop for GBP on the QT news, but the real moves will be dictated by the interest rate decisions and forward guidance from both sides of the Atlantic. If BoE and FED hold, it could be a great asymmetric short end to the week!
by PointBreak42
Cable Trade Plan 15-19 Sep, 2025Base Case (60%): Range-Bound with a Dixie Tilt Narrative: The US data/Trump expectations continue to weigh on the dollar more than the UK data weighs on the pound. The carry trade remains in vogue. Price Action: Cable grinds higher or just chops within its recent range (1.500 - 1.600). It's a "best of a bad bunch" story. Trading: Wait for pullbacks toward supply, for longs; targeting the top of the range. (Trading the range, not the doom-and-gloom fundamental view.) Bear Case (30%): UK Data Starts the Unwind Narrative: A key UK data points (jobs report shows unemployment spiking, or CPI comes in softer than expected) is a canary in the coal mine. It would signal the economy is breaking so fast that the BoE will be forced to cut rates soon, regardless of inflation. This breaks the strong leg (carry trade). Price Action: A sharp, impulsive drop below key demand levels (1.400 1.450). This would be the first sign of the fundamental story taking over. Trading: A break and close below this key demand of 1.450 could be a signal to short, targeting a move to the next major area of demand 1.400. Wild Card (10%): UK Inflation Shock Narrative: UK CPI comes in hotter than expected (e.g., headline ticks up toward 4%). Price Action: Cable spikes higher. This would force a massive unwind of BoE rate cut bets. Traders would be forced to buy Sterling, pushing Cable through 1.600 to potential 1.725 Trading: This would be a fadeable rally. Using the strength as an entry at more over-brought levels, initiating or adding to longer-term strategic shorts, as it only deepens the BoE's trap and worsens the eventual economic pain.
by PointBreak42
Unveiling the 40-Year Bond Yield Super-Cycle: Prepare for a potential Boom if we see a significant pullback in rates, followed by an Epic Bust thereafter! Overview: The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield exhibits an 80-year cyclical pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave Theory at Super-Cycle and Cycle Degrees. The historical peak of 15.82% (Wave V) in the early 1980s marked the end of a Super-Cycle uptrend, followed by a corrective Wave C low of 0.33% around 2020. The current upward movement in Cycle Wave I suggests the beginning of a new 40-year inflationary half-cycle, with a projected peak around 2060, interspersed with shorter Cycle Degree waves (Wave I, Wave II, Wave III, Wave IV, and Wave V) that include resistance zones at 5.28% (horizontal resistance) and the upward Fibonacci retracement levels at 6.24%, 8.07%, and 9.03%. Implications for the Future: Inflation: Apart from a stimulative-induced pullback in rates marking a deep Cycle Degree Wave II decline near 2%—which could spike risk assets to fresh all-time highs before an epic bust—expect bouts of persistent rising inflation over the next 35 years as the Super Cycle inflationary momentum strengthens toward its peak in 2060. Stock Prices: Downside volatility may increase with higher yields, and blow-off top rallies may occur with ample stimulation from the Fed, further impacting already absurd equity valuations. Gold Price: If rates drop sharply and the dollar strengthens over the near to medium term, Gold may suffer a significant pullback. Apart from that, Gold is likely to appreciate significantly as a safe-haven asset, particularly if yields break out above horizontal resistance north of 5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. U.S Economy: The real economy and Wall Street's financialized economy have diverged by orders of magnitude over the last 45 years. The wealth gap between the haves and have-nots is nearing a breaking point. Once risk assets peak for this Super Cycle, the ensuing bust will take no prisoners, but may narrow the wealth gap to more tolerable levels. If things get severely disruptive as they tend to do in Super Cycles, don't be surprised if a new monetary regime is adopted between now and 2060.
TVC:US10Y
by Wave-Tech
1
Bitcoin Drops 3%—Here’s Why It’s Happening!Bitcoin jumped past $113k right after the NFP report, then retraced 2% . Why the sudden swing? Weak jobs data, recession fears, and market sentiment all played a role. In this video, I break down: The NFP impact on BTC September’s historical weakness Correlation with the S&P 500 Potential buying opportunities if the Fed cuts rates I analyze Bitcoin daily to make sure we don’t miss any triggers. Join the community , drop your thoughts in the comments, and share with friends if this helped!
by SkepticLab
Gold Projections (Highly Volatile)GOLD Breaks Through The Historic Milestone of $3500 And Hit a RECORD HIGH of 3508.75 Why? * The Sep Fed Rate Cut Expectations are Getting Stronger - * The possibilities of a min of 25 bps cannot be rejected * Powell will blame weaker labor markets for the rate cuts as inflation are already high and sticky. Technical Analysis Gold breached the ascending wedge formation on a Daily TF While also breaking the previous all-time high of 3500 A close above the 3500 level today will raise the probabilities of a further upward rally till at least the 3520 -3530 zone. A failure to sustain above the 3500 level might witness some strong corrections in gold due to profit bookings from ATH level
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by Nadia_farhat
$DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?(1/9) Good afternoon, everyone! 🌞 DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip? With the DXY at 103.732, is the dollar flexing its muscles or ready to stumble? Let’s break it down! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Current Price: 103.732 as of Mar 14, 2025 💰 • Recent Move: Near recent levels, down from 110.18 peak (web data) 📏 • Sector Trend: Forex markets volatile, with trade and policy shifts 🌟 It’s a wild ride—dollar’s dancing on the edge! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Role: Measures USD vs. euro, yen, pound, and more 🏆 • Influence: Drives forex and commodity prices globally ⏰ • Trend: Balancing U.S. policy and global demand, per data 🎯 King of currencies, but not without challengers! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariff talks ongoing, per data 🌍 • Rate Cut Bets: Markets eyeing Fed moves, per posts on X 📋 • Market Reaction: Holding steady at 103.732 amid mixed signals 💡 Navigating a storm of global pressures! 🛳️ (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Rate Cuts: Could weaken dollar if Fed acts, per X sentiment 🔍 • Trade Wars: Tariffs disrupting supply chains, per data 📉 • Global Growth: Slowdowns hitting demand for USD ❄️ It’s a tightrope—risks aplenty! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Reserve Status: USD’s global dominance holds firm 🥇 • U.S. Economy: Still a powerhouse, supporting dollar value 📊 • Safe Haven: Attracts flows in uncertain times, per trends 🔧 Got muscle to flex when it counts! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Vulnerable to rate cuts, trade spats 📉 • Opportunities: Strong U.S. data could lift it higher, per outlook 📈 Can it hold the line or break out? 🤔 (8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢 DXY at 103.732—your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: 105+ soon, dollar rallies 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️ • Bearish: 100 looms, dollar dips 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 The DXY’s 103.732 shows it’s steady but tested 📈. Trade wars and Fed moves could swing it either way—dips are our DCA gold 💰. Buy low, ride high—time’s the key! Gem or bust?
TVC:DXY
by DCAChampion
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao