The S&P500 index (SPX) broke above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the second time during the start of the Bear Cycle in January 2022 and the first after December 12 2022. For the past three days it is being rejected there, which makes it a strong Resistance, along with the 'Prior Lower High', which is the level we pointed out last week on our SPX report:
As...
●● Preferred count
● S&P 500 - U.S. (^SPX),🕐TF: 60D
Fig.1
The current count of long-term waves is already two years old. How much more is allotted to the wave V of (III) no one will tell you. All we are capable of is tracking the shape and structure of the wave, which should manifest itself in the form of a five-wave motive...
The S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't...
The index failed yet again to break and close above the bold white declining Resistance, which is effectively the Resistance that has marked all lower highs of the Bear Market. This is far from an ideal scenario for S&P500 buyers. The Support Zone right below already supported once last week and has been serving as either a Support or Resistance since May...
The S&P500 index followed our last projection we made on January 04 as after it held the Higher Lows of the October Channel Up, it rose substantially and got rejected on the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line (January 04 2022 trend-line):
This happened because it failed to close a 1D candle above this huge Bear Cycle Resistance, same it did on December 01...
SPX is within a rising wedge structure that has been getting weaker on each high. The 1hour RSI has a pivot line though above which the trend remains bullish but below turns bearish.
So far it is above and it is evident as the price is holding the wedge's bottom and is rebounding.
4040 the upper target if it holds. 3942, which is the first support, if it breaks...
FOREXCOM:SPXUSD
As of 01/16/2023, I believe the birth, or first sign of a potential return to bull market to be today. In the process of reviewing ema, macd, and cycle based indicators, we should see uptrend begin to take off leading back into 4300 by February '23. This can all change with fed's taming of inflation, or any external circumstance. But if trajectory...
The S&P500 index (SPX) eventually held the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up, as we outlined on our December 29 idea, and it testing today yet again the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 2022:
That level has only broken once on the December 13 fake-out, same with the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is trending parallel to it....
So it's earnings season and it's not supposed to be showing too well, however, the S n P is showing signs of strength from last week and his risen tonight to over 4000 again.
Hard to say but will some disappointing earnings numbers tank the 500 or will it keep going up to 4100 or 4200 before it drops back down to the 3800 area again.
Something to watch...
Weekly: In the extension phase of a trend to the downside.
Daily: A narrowing channel/range forming signifying a storage of energy to be released in one direction (assumed to be downside given the weekly bias). Market potentially waiting for the NFP before the next move.
Target would be the previous low which coincides with the fib extension 1.618 from the last...
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This week is full of events, there will be many indicators from the data, be prepared for volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency market!
Key events this week:
Wednesday, January 4th.
-USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) - 18:00 Moscow...
On the longer term S&P500 analysis posted last week, I set the expectation that there would be a solid drop in the index this year, but not before a corrective recovery to the upside.
Taking a closer look in the 4HR timeframe, this is my roadmap.
The yellow box indicates the 100% to 161.8% extension from waves A-B. It is a common target for extensions, and I...
The S&P500 index if showing signs of a strong drop in early 2023, possibly testing the 3000 region.
1. The top trendline is holding any attempts of a higher high. Until it is broken, we´re in bearish correction mode.
2. The Fib extensions from black and gray XYZs give us targets between 3150 and 2800 (yellow rectangle).
3. Short term, we´ll probably see a...
The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green...
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Let's talk a little about the stock market and FOMC rates. What values will the stock market show us next year?
From the technical side:
Before all the data results that we saw with you in December, the SPX500 was breaking the 4000 mark...
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