Next level to watch and certainly to build position
From the historical point of view, two times in the past broadening wedge patterns have been broken and prices have retraced in a sharp sell kind of correction before continuing on another bull cycle. So this could happen again, considering current price action as much as macro and TA issues, this could likely happen again.Thus breaking blue trendline (broadening...
Since Nikkei 225 has 0.94 correlation with SPY i found the analysis interesting in order to get more insight on next plays on S&P 500. Without any doubt the Japanese index is consolidating since its may top this year. This will ultimately lead to 2 scenarios: 1- NIKKEI is in a descending triangle pattern formation, prices will test support of this triangle,...
This is an update from my long position, scenario #1 would be bounce from MA34-EMA21 daily time frame
Last down move did not retrace to any Fibonacci retracement but rather bounced between 165.07 (61%) and 163.23 (50%) unless i missed another overcoming fibonacci retracements i noticed this usually means we have more down to come, after prices work out their oversold levels. Consequently, next move will likely resemble to June's bounce before further movement...
Green boxes triggering orders, and targets will depend on FOMC and price behaviour until then. This should be good for the week but on daily chart i believe prices will cross MA50, this is ranging for me, until prices correct for real long term is down.
Tight stoploss, confirmation is price over 108. should keep trailing stop since we are fading daily down trend.
Volatility trade for next correction, second top might synchronize with SPY 174-175, short term overbought on SPY pointing for a at least MA34 test on daily + RSI 50% on XIV
This scenario aligns with my long term reversal point of view, 174-175 level.
Long term view of IWM, Next important resistance 109.28 level, might re-make 2011 kind of high formation, riding yellow trendline until that level. But RSI looks overbought, might reload to work those overbought indicators. The same analysis with SPY, aiming for 175 until reversal but short term overbought
Regardless of Fed, correlation between Bonds and stocks has been, historically and technically, at least from a cyclic periodical point of view, negative. Average -0.80%.Green boxes are showing the following. Only question remains what is the effect of the fed on the correlation, besides DXY, USO etc... from a long term, medium and short term point of view. I read...