VictorCobra

Catching Knives - Potential for Some Small Relief For Altcoins

Long
BINANCE:DOTUSDT   DOT / TetherUS
The title is pretty self-explanatory. Sure, prices can keep collapsing into the abyss. I have little enough exposure where this wouldn't hurt me a huge amount. It's important for me to be very conservative. There is nothing that says we need to recover here.

Many alts are back to their accumulation ranges from the previous bear market, so it seams reasonable to expect at least SOME buying action. For instance, Polkadot has now retraced nearly its entire bull market rally. In January when price was still above $25, I wrote about how there was serious risk for it to break the long term uptrend, and head back towards the $7-11 range. Here is the original post from January:
Even prior to that, in November 2021 I wrote about how I thought DOT may have reached its long term top against Bitcoin . This has proven to be correct as well. In fact, looking at this chart tells me that it still has potential to fall. Perhaps it won't get a longer relief rally until those lower levels are reached.
Regardless, I picked up some DOT here near $7.20. I also rebought ALGO at $0.29 after stopping myself out of a spot trade from $0.39 not too long ago. These are not necessarily meant to be a long term positions. I may even sell them tomorrow if things seem even less likely to turn around here. My strategy is different than it was during the 2018 bear market. Back then, my strategy was to accumulate as much as I could afford, within reason. Now my strategy is to simply see if I can time the occasional bounce. If I do see signs that the market could rally again in the future like it did in 2017 and 2021 I will change my tune a little. Even so, I see little use for cryptocurrencies in our world. I acknowledge that this may change as well, although honestly I'd prefer to see adoption over price appreciation.

If the market bounces, it can last for anywhere from a week or two to several months. No one knows. My speculation is that a bounce would yet again involve altcoins outperforming Bitcoin , while larger whales unload their BTC in the $30-40k range. But then, this would imply that Michael Saylor would be able to exist at break even, or in profit. Will the market give that to him? More bullish behavior would be Bitcoin pumping right back to $42k while alts begin to really lag, as we began to see in 2019 once the bottom was in. Something like this would begin to invalidate my longer term bearish view.

On the bearish side here, if DOT can't hold above $7 for long, it can head down to the next support level , between $4-5. Similarly with ALGO, if it can't hold above $0.26-27, it can head down to $0.16. Dumps like this continuously happened in 2017, but at least back then there was the occasional mega relief rally for altcoins. This time, we may not get those opportunities, so I'm being especially careful.

This is not meant as financial advice! This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.

-Victor Cobra
Trade closed manually: Already stopped myself out again. Levels are marked on the chart :) Got out near break even overall.
Comment: Unfortunately, the *relief* bounce might simply be a bounce from $5-7 for DOT. That would be really depressing.
Comment: Looks like we may be seeing it after all. Either way, important levels are marked on the chart. Not sure if I will jump back in, but as always this is for speculation and entertainment :)
Trade active: Welp, re-entered on DOT here near $6.30. Nice new low here at $6 today. Still playing this possibility.
Trade active: Also added a small ATOM position ear $7.87, since it's showing some relative strength recently.
Trade closed manually: Closed again lol. Very different from my attitude in 2018, which was BUY EVERY DIP AND HOLD.

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