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Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chris
TVC:US30Y
by maikisch
4
Inverse Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern ConfirmedAn inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June. Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell. Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85 Bond bears are calling this reversal a trap/mistake suggesting a Mistake in 2 rate cuts in the 2nd half of 2023. I only monitor TLT for technical analysis and to confirm / invalidate trends for the S&P 500. Not financial or trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYvsGME
1
US10Y Approaching the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first, would largely be a long-term sell signal that could break below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel and target the 2.510% Support (August 02 Low) and make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been our long-term bearish target since October. The 1D RSI can also offer sell entries on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
Include $TLT in Your Portfolio 🪙Bonds are seriously underperforming stocks and TLT has been on a downtrend since the onset of Covid lockdowns when global governments printed massive amounts of money to prop up the equity markets. In Oct 2022, TLT broke below the 2014 low and then recovered nicely. I believe allocating like 10% in treasuries will be beneficial with the outlook of 2-4 years as we can expect the world to start to work around the sticky high interest rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by raamraj
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics
$SPY Monthly 9/21 Death Cross - WARNINGThe only other time the 9EMA crossed under the 21EMA on the monthly was the 2000 Dot Com & 2008 Great Financial Crisis. (Noted with the blue + symbols & down arrows). Each time, the RSI was near 50. Each time, the ADX indicator has been lower than the preceding level (in the 20s, WEAK - NO TREND. The massive drop in monthly volume should be noted. When the next BIG DIRECTIONAL MOVE comes, it'll be accompanied by VOLUME & a rise in the ADX (to STRONG TREND). If this 3rd time ever 9/21 DEATH CROSS is like the other two, a MASSIVE WATERFALL SELLOFF could occur. If such an event occurs, FEAR WILL SPREAD causing a MASSIVE VOLATILITY SURGE. I'm HEDGED for crisis with $UVIX $UVXY. My suspicions point toward a DEBT BUBBLE IMPLOSION. Protect your #kingdollar. GL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by EpicEconomics
2
US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term. Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ## ## Also DONATIONS through TradingView coins help our cause of increasing the daily ideas put here for free and reach out more traders like you. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
2
US Bonds - Hitting Key Resistance Levels - 2023 Target $104-$105US Bonds have been channeling in a perfect downward parallel channel since Mar 2022. It recently hit a key resistance level at $132 and started to pull back. I expect the pull back to continue till $123 and expect a short term technical bounce up to $128. Higher Fed interest rates will continue to have pressure on the Bonds and overall economy. I expect the bonds to go lower in 2023 and bottom out at $104. $104 is also measure Fibonacci level 1 target.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by gmaster29
Using DXY - Bond yield Divergence correctly.A really strong indicator for future price action of say DXY for example can be the divergence between it and 5y, 10y and 30y bond yields. Forex markets are driven mainly by interest rates and so if we take a close look at the bond yields we can see them making lower highs whereas DXY is making higher highs. As said, DXY will also follow the bond yields and so we would expect DXY to drop. This SMT Divergence concept coupled with economic events could make for a great trade idea.
TVC:DXY
by AlxFxOfficial
Treasury Yields Show Signs of a TopTreasury yields have been a major driver of sentiment since early 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 1.75 percent at the beginning of the bear market last January. But now it may be showing signs of a top. The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of October, November and December. Notice how TNX began the New Year (and a new week) by sharply dropping from this resistance. Second, the rejection occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Interestingly, this is different than we saw in August, when the yield leaped above the SMA. It’s also noteworthy that the SMA has been falling since early December, another potential sign of the trend reversing lower. Next, consider the longer-term levels. TNX peaked at 4.32 percent in 2008 and 4.014 percent the following year. Given the recent price action, that general zone seems to be holding as resistance. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:TNX
by TradeStation