NASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options: 1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder. 2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is...
The Corporate bond market got extremely oversold and it bounced without the Fed having to pivot. Essentially the market got to 2013-2018 levels, and bounced nicely at the old support. But we still don't know whether the bottom is in or now, as there are more questions that need to be answered, like: Does the market expect the Fed to reverse course soon? Does the...
The US debt to Gold ratio looks to be topping. The lower this ratio, the more US debt is covered by gold and generally means a rally in the price of gold. When this ratio breaks the minor diagonal support line, the major support line will be the next target and gold will see gains not seen since the late 1970's.
When investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes...
The 10 year yield will not get to 3%. Since 1987 we have seen this downward trend in treasuries indicated by the channels on the chart. As of today, the 2 standard deviation peak is at 2.2% and the 3 standard deviation peak is at 2.9%. In one year it will move down to 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. There's also a chance we already peaked and we don't see a 10 year...
Until U.S. debt loads get to more normalized levels (below 80%) and the 10Y treasury yield has a far enough spread from the short-end of the curve, the Federal Reserve's hand is almost forced in what they can do from a rate tightening perspective.
A large player seems to be making decisions based in real terms, which is not revealed by the socially accepted AAPL chart which is based in dollars. Will future traders be enticed by such numerical values if it eventually harms them? To be clear, in this idea: "real terms" = the price as a proportion of total dollars, adjusted for debasement TOTAL_USD = M2, a...
It is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic mind poisoning down. That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times....
Manchin plays Foosball again. $2 Trillion in Stimmy is a solid "Sorry, but no." _____________________________________________________________ WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin said Sunday he cannot back his party’s signature $2 trillion social and environment bill, seemingly dealing a fatal blow to President Joe Biden’s leading domestic...
I have been dealing with some personal issues so I needed to take a break. I managed to time the break in the bull trend perfectly. Now I'm eyeing Dec 3rd and the 21W EMA which is a theoretical pivot between a Bull/Bear Market. I think we're in for more selling the next few days down to the 21W EMA unless a decision is made to raise it before the 3rd.
Debt ceiling talks this week lets see how this plays out over time
With cpi inflation up at 6.2 % why should I be willing to hold a bond fun which as way above average prices and yielding between 2% and 4.4% for junk bonds? Shouldnt I be avoiding this reach for yield and get either more constative and look for future discount opportunities, or should buy a traditional portfolio and pray a sell off doesnt happen over next 5-10...
Bonds have seen a bit of a relief rally as we predicted yesterday. They hit the exact target we identified, 130'00, before settling near support at 129'26. We anticipate a quiet market as we go into the US hoiday for Thanksgiving. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, suggesting that this rally may be just a relief rally. That being said, we do have an...
Speculation for Macro: I argue that price and consumer price inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are betting on stocks because of 'inflation' will be in for a shock. Yields indicate we may be entering stagflation. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force than consumer price inflation. After all the...
The Ratio Expansion is unprecedented in US HIstory. A clear pattern emerges after the initial Apex - the gentle stair-step higher into higher and higher Highs. Debt itself remains the Life-Support of the US Economy. The Debt to GDP ratio is the Probability of a Nations ability to Pay Its Debts. ____________________________________________ Corporate Equity...
The US debt problem has caused increased weakness and caused a downtrend since October open ! The problem has been stemmed on by many people in congress and i have little faith this problem will get resolved fully in a timely manner. While this is bad for America , this would provide the perfect opportunity for a parabolic leg in crypto and potentially increase...
The South Korean show Squid Game dramatizes, in part, the extremely high household debt levels in that country. With household debt-to-GDP highest in the world, South Korean 30-somethings owe an average of 270% of their annual income. Those are the kinds of household debt levels that could either plunge the country into recession as credit tightens or cause...
At this stage of the game, there are genuinely too many things to list that would back up the idea of an impending drop in the market. Instead of eating, sleeping breathing FUD and living in the fear based, scarcity mindset and focusing on how “the market is going to crash” I encourage everyone to see the clearance buffet we are about to have in front of us....