CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Last Friday, U.S. stocks plunged again as soaring interest rates and FX market turmoil fueled investor fears of a global recession. The Dow fell below 30,000 and closed at 29,590, down 486 or -1.6%. S&P 500 broke through 3700 and settled at 3,697, down 1.72%. Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 200 points and closed at...
This will be a multi part series on trendlines and channels, what they represent, how to draw and use them, and how I design trades around them. For the sake of simplicity this series will focus on uptrends. Importantly, the principles are roughly the same for both uptrends and downtrends except that downtrends often develop more quickly. I see many TL...
Using a standard MACD and an indicator which colorizes price based on MACD signals, it can be observed that the current price decline looks similar to previous corrections and crashes with the exception of the Covid crash which was a rare black swan event. Assuming another black swan isn't upon us, and basing predictions on past performance, (two yellow flags,...
Before giving you false hope, this strategy, like any other, will not have a 100% wining ratio. But, with a RR of about 1:2, and a wining rate of 40%, it will make money long term. A tested wining percentage is around 60% depending on market conditions. Time frame : 4h Indicators used: - Renko chart - Cumulative Delta - RSI - OBV - Moving average...
SPY is down over 20% and the VIX is at ~27!! Extremely low in relation to current market conditions. Based on the Fed’s recent economic projection , unemployment is set to rise 0.6% in 2023!!! In turn a drop of PCE inflation from 5.4% to 2.8% is projected. Implicating a US recession and a possible global recession. Pivoting Powell is donning the Volker mask and...
All the fixed tenure yields have broken above their four decades of downtrend. - 2yr, 5yr, 10 yr & 30yr To note, the shorter end, the fixed 2 year tenure yield is climbing faster than the longer end, the U.S. fixed 30 year tenure government bond yield. The year closing, it will be crucial to determine the trend transition; from this long-term downtend to uptrend.
Like in the case of Bitcoin, we are also bearish on Ethereum. We will pay close attention to it today as the FED is set to increase interest rates and worsen economic conditions. We expect such action to drag the stock market and cryptocurrencies lower over time. Though we do not rule out an initial bounce up in the price of ETHUSD after the FED decision; however,...
The WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a structured Channel Down pattern since the March 08 market High, following the immense growth after the COVID 2020 demand crisis. We have covered the Higher Lows zones since the November 02 2020 Low (green circle) and the March 23 2021 Low (blue circle) extensively over the past months on the higher time-frames,...
The US Federal Reserve Open Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation that has been running at high levels not seen...
This video is about the importance of thinking in RR and %. The main point is when you think you haven't earned enough is $ amount - and so you want to trade more and more, which leads to poor trade quality - remind yourself that trading is highly scalable, and so it's ok to imagine you have a 20x more capital at the moment. So x20 your profit in the trade and ask...
Hey everyone! 👋 Today, we will be looking at how to build an unstoppable trading plan in a few short steps. While many successful traders often use different ‘variables’ when it comes to identifying trades, the core decision making process of all good trading plans remains mostly the same. Therefore, we’re going to go over a few key things that you shouldn’t be...
As the British Pound approaches a major support level of 1.4000, we think it is akin to peering over the edge of a cliff. With one of the worst headline inflation rates in the developed markets, crippling energy bills, and a newly elected government, the Bank of England (BOE) is in a place few would want to be in. As the next policy meeting date nears, the...
Since the target of the “Ethereum to $2k” idea was achieved there’s been a lot of messages asking, what’s happening? As price action collapses the tensions rise. Two things occurred: 1) The majority asking the question do not have a strategy. You will always lose money without one. 2) The majority asking this question do NOT have a strategy. Now I realised I’ve...
COMEX: Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) Last Tuesday, September 13th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in August to an annual rate of 8.3%. Both were higher than market expectations of -0.1% and 8.1%, respectively. One tenth of one percent didn’t seem much, but it refuted the mainstream notion that inflation has already...
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times each year to set the short-term interest rate. After the meeting, the Bank publishes a statement containing the interest rate decision, a brief commentary on the economic conditions that influenced their decision, and most importantly, it contains indications regarding...
Hello Traders, here is my analysis for Tesla. Listed on the chart are the Bullish and Bearish signals that I will be watching for. - At the moment, a trade setup has not formed that I would be interested in, however I am keeping an eye on the price action to see if pattern forms that I can play. Price is either going to breakout and Bulls will take price...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw the ECB hike rates 75bsp at their Sep meeting, with post ECB sources saying the bank is planning to discuss Quantitative Tightening at the Oct meeting. It seems like President Lagarde learnt from here July mistakes by being very careful not to give any clues away on where the ECB thinks the...
Hey traders, In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown". Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples. The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time. Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account. At the...